Every fantasy sport has a set of strong statistical indicators that help project what’s going to happen. Fantasy golf is no different. We focus primarily on a metric called Strokes Gained. Created by Mark Broadie, a Columbia professor, it measures a golfer against others on a shot-by-shot basis. It is then compiled daily, weekly, and yearly to model player performance over time. The database we will be working with for fantasy golf and PGA DFS covers tournaments from the last 18 months. While making PGA DFS picks is typically about recent form, we like to learn players’ strengths and weaknesses to better understand where they might perform best. Let’s dig into The RSM Classic Info and PGA DFS picks.
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Fantasy Golf: Strokes Gained Analysis | RSM Classic PGA DFS Picks
In an effort to bring forward as much relevant data as possible, I’m going to be adding in a section dedicated to last year’s strokes gained results from this tournament. In turn, I’ll condense the other sections a bit.
This is a 156-man field with the Top 65 and ties making the cut after Round 2. The average number of starts for the golfers in the database is 23. Sungjae Im has the most with 37, while Camilo Villegas has the least with just five starts.
Last year’s RSM Classic Results
*For the full Results, check the second sheet attached to the Strokes Gained Sheet at the bottom of the article:
Notes
- Tyler Duncan gained just over a half of a stroke off the tee in his three rounds at the Seaside course but did it all by accuracy, hitting almost 94% of his fairways last year.
- The only golfer to lose strokes while putting in the Top-10 last year was Kristoffer Ventura.Â
- Joel Dahmen had one of his worst performances of the year on the Seaside greens last year. He lost 2.13 strokes putting in the three recorded rounds, yet gained 1.84 tee-to-green. The 1.84 mark is good enough for a Top-10 here and is intriguing for PGA DFS.
- The most strokes gained in one category by the Top-10 finishers was in putting, with an average of just over one stroke gained. The second highest was on the approach, averaging just north of .88 strokes gained per round, while off the tee came in at 0.5 and around the green at 0.25.
Strokes Gained Total
- Data Set with starts over 2 total strokes gained: Webb Simpson (11), Im, Joaquin Niemann, Russell Henley (7)
- Dataset percentage of starts over 1.5: Simpson 70%, Harris English 52%, Tyrrell Hatton 44%, Matthew Fitzpatrick 39%, Ventura 38%.
- Last 10 weeks (last 10 weeks): Jason Kokrak, Henley, Hatton, Louis Oosthuizen, Peter Malnati
Strokes Gained Tee to Green
- Dataset starts with at least 1.75 strokes gained: Henley (8), Im, Harold Varner (7)
- Dataset percentage of starts over 1: Varner 50%, Simpson 48%, Henley 45%, Corey Conners 42%
- Graphic (last 10 weeks): Henley, Chez Reavie, Talor Gooch, James Hahn
Strokes Gained Off the Tee
- Dataset starts with at least 1 stroke gained:Â Conners (7), Keith Mitchell and Jhonattan Vegas (5)
- Dataset percentage of starts over 0.5: Kokrak 66%, Conners 62%, Vegas 57%, Doc Redman 50%, Lucas Glover 50%, Mitchell 47%, Emiliano Grillo 47%, Sepp Straka 47%, Ventura 45%, Will Gordon 44%.
- Graphic (last 10 weeks): Im, Wyndham Clark, Gordon, Tyler McCumber, Luke List, Conners, K.H. Lee, Straka.
Strokes Gained on ApproachÂ
- Dataset starts with at least 1 stroke gained: Grillo and Henley (10), Redman and Simpson (9)
- Dataset percentage of starts over 0.5: Henley 64%, Grillo 64%, Conners 61%, Cameron Percy 57%, Simpson 56%, Niemann 56%, Hatton 56%, Cameron Triangle 56%
- Graphic (last 10 weeks): Hatton, Henley, Xinjun Zhang, Russell Knox, Duncan, Redman.
Strokes Gained Around the Green
- Dataset starts with at least 1 stroke gained: Brian Harman and Dylan Frittelli (6), Keegan Bradley and Alex Noren (5)
- Dataset percentage of starts over 0.5: Villegas 50%, Charles Howell III 46%, Harman 45%, Noren 45%, Luke Donald 44%, K.J. Choi 41%
- Graphic (last 10 weeks): Gooch, English, Ian Poulter, Dahmen, Noren, Tom Hoge, Sebastian Munoz
Strokes Gained Putting
- Dataset starts with at least 1.25 strokes gained: Denny McCarthy (9), Patton Kizzire, Gooch (8), Simpson, Maverick McNealy, Brendon Todd, Andrew Putnam (6)
- Dataset percentage of starts over 0.25: Ventura 81%, J.T. Poston 77%, Poulter 75%, McCarthy 73%, John Huh 70%, Simpson 69%, Patrick Rodgers 69%
- Graphic (last 10 weeks): McNealy, Kokrak, Malnati, Hunter Mahan
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Strokes Gained PGA DFS Sheet
Click here for the google sheet link.
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