The final leg of the PGA Tour playoffs is here. The Tour Championship features a limited 30-man field, and each player in the field will be assigned a starting score that ranges from 10 under to even par. This will affect DFS strategy and the betting market significantly. There’s lots to wade through, so don’t forget to check out the Stokastic projections, which have both scoring data and ownership projections. Stokastic projections come out on Monday and will be updated throughout the week.
PGA DFS Preview | Tour Championship 2022
Top Strokes Gained from BMW Championship
- Approach: Scott Stallings
- Tee to Green: Rory McIlroy
- Putting: Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Tour Championship PGA DFS Picks and Preview
The Tour Championship is the most unique event on the PGA Tour. It awards players strokes based on where they are in the FedEx Cup standings coming into this event. As such, not all players will start equally, which will give out huge placing point advantages for daily fantasy golf purposes. It’s obviously important to know how the format works before setting lineups, so here are the starting places of all the players in the event:
10 Under: Scottie Scheffler
8 Under: Patrick Cantlay
7 Under: Will Zalatoris
6 Under: Xander Schauffele
5 Under: Sam Burns
4 Under: Smith, McIlroy, Finau, Im, Straka
3 Under: Rahm, Stallings, Young, Fitzpatrick, Thomas
2 Under: Homa, Matsuyama, Spieth, Niemann, Hovland
1 Under: Morikawa, Hoge, Horschel, Conners, Harman
Even par – Lee, Scott, Wise, Theegala, Poston
Field Notes
- Aaron Wise is the lucky 30 this week, as he narrowly edged out Shane Lowry for the final spot.
- Sahith Theegala makes the final 30 in his rookie season
- Jon Rahm closed with 65 and 67 last week but is still seven shots back to start the week. He won the stroke play portion here last year (without starting strokes).
- Will Zalatoris (back) withdrew mid-round last week on Saturday and has a short turnaround. He’ll be the riskiest play on the board for daily fantasy purposes.
The Tour Championship Winners
2021: Patrick Cantlay (4-1)
- Started week as second favorite and at 10 under with two-shot lead.
- Lead-in: Win/11th/23rd
Strokes Gained: TTG +6.5; APP +3.0; OTT +3.3; ATG +0.1; PUTT -0.2
2020: Dustin Johnson (3-1)
- Started the week as favorite and at 10 under with two-shot lead.
- Lead-in: 2nd/Win/2nd
Strokes Gained: TTG +4.7; APP -0.1; OTT +2.0; ATG +2.7; PUTT +0.9
2019: Rory McIlroy (8-1)
- Started the week 5 under and five shots back of leader.
- Lead-in: 19th/6th/4th
Strokes Gained: TTG +11.0; APP +3.2; OTT +5.3; ATG +2.2; PUTT +2.5
‘The handicap format at the Tour Championship has only been used in the last three seasons, so there’s not much going beyond that unless using course history. The trend has been quite clear, though: Momentum is pretty much everything. The last two years both Johnson and Cantlay came in with a two-shot lead and were coming off wins in one of their last two starts. It is worth noting that McIlroy was able to overcome a five-shot deficit in 2019, and there will be more results like that down the road as this format plays out. Right now, there are four or five players on the PGA Tour with significant results over their last four starts, so the case could be made to look down the field for betting.
Want to see who is trending as a strong play early? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.
Tour Championship Course Preview
East Lake is a longer par 70. The course has yielded winning scores in the 8- to 13-under range over the last five years and typically ranks in the top 25% in terms of overall toughness. Since renovations in the early 2010s, East Lake has proven to be a very tough course to play off the tee. The average driving distance here is 10 yards more than the tour average, but driving accuracy is about 10% lower than normal as well. Long, straight drivers have a more significant advantage than normal at East Lake. The larger Bermuda greens mean greens-in-regulation rates are about tour average, so the other area where players can gain an advantage is putting.
East Lake Golf Club
- Par 70, 7319 yards
- Greens: Bermuda
- Designer: Donald Ross
- Par 3’s: 150-200 yards (1), 200+ yards (3)
- Par 4’s: 350-400 yards (2), 400-450 yards (4), 450+ yards (6)
- Par 5’s: 500-550 yards (1), 550-600+ yards (1)
Similar Courses:
Pinehurst No. 2, Plainfield, Aronimink
Tour Championship Horses to Watch
These are players who continue to defy logic with how consistent they have been at this week’s venue. This section will try to decipher what they do so well and why it allows them to flourish at this venue, but some of this is just player preference.
- Rory McIlroy (winner 2019, 2016 and Runner-Up 2014): Has absolutely dominated this venue at various times. Big advantage off the tee on the longer par 4’s and 5’s. Came back from five shots down to win inaugural handicap version in 2019 in what was likely the most impressive win at this venue.
- Xander Schauffele (Winner 2017, Runner-Up 2019 and 2020): Schauffele has been super consistent at East Lake, making the venue his own personal piggy bank. A winner of the Tour Championship in 2017 (but not the FedEx Cup), he’s also done well in the new handicap format, finishing second and fifth here in 2019 and 2020.
- Jordan Spieth (Winner 2015, Runner-Up 2013): Spieth had a lot of success at East Lake early on in his career. He typically dominated on the greens, though, and not tee to green. He’s improved his off-tee game in 2021, so a bounce back to form at East Lake wouldn’t be shocking in 2022.
Tour Championship Recent Form Leaders
Short Term Form: Strokes Gained Tee to Green (Last 24 Rounds)
- Tony Finau
- Cameron Young
- Rory McIlroy
- Sungjae Im
- Scottie Scheffler
Long Term Form: Strokes Gained Tee to Green (Last 100 Rounds)
- Jon Rahm
- Justin Thomas
- Will Zalatoris
- Rory McIlroy
- Collin Morikawa
Top Five Total Strokes Gained Off the Tee (Last 50 rounds)
- Jon Rahm
- Cameron Young
- Sungjae Im
- Corey Conners
- Rory McIlroy
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Tour Championship Weather Forecast
Thursday a.m.: 75 F, wind 4-5 mph (40-50% chance of rain or storms)
Thursday p.m.: 78 F, wind 4-5 mph (50-55% chance of rain or storms)
Friday a.m.: 75 F, wind 4-5 mph (30-40% chance of rain or storms)
Friday p.m.: 80 F, wind 4-5 mph (40% chance of rain or storms)
Wave stacking won’t be much of a factor, but it’s still good to know how the weather could affect the course. As of now, the big concern this week will likely be dodging the late-summer thunderstorms that often come into play at this event. A softer course will help players hold the greens but will also make the course play longer. For more strategy and updates, check out PGA DFS Live Before Lock show Wednesday night on the Stokastic YouTube Channel.
Tour Championship Early Betting Leans
Jon Rahm Win | BetMGM
Sungjae Im Top 5 | BetMGM
Rahm had the best weekend score of anyone in the tournament at the BMW Championship, shooting 65 and 67 to close out the event. Rahm had a one terrible round with his irons but was very positive on the greens at Wilmington. East Lake proved to be favorable for him last season, and he gained three strokes putting on the greens at East Lake in 2021. He’s also very used to playing with a deficit given his slow starts the last two weeks. From a mindset standpoint, starting further back could be a good igniter.
Im is starting in the 6 to 10 slot and has been one of the most consistent drivers this season. This hasn’t been the greatest event for him, but given it’s his fourth attempt at this venue, this could be the year he puts it all together. He’s also trending nicely over his last four starts.
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