2023 Genesis Invitational PGA DFS Preview: Jason Day Comeback Tour Continues

There is another absolutely loaded field this week for the Genesis Invitational. This will be the second elevated event in a row and another 132-man field. As of writing, 40 of the world’s top 50 players from the OWGR will be playing. The big news this week is that Tiger Woods will be playing, the first time Woods has competed since last year’s British Open Championship. He is not a threat to win, but his presence will give this event a lot more attention, which means more money coming into the betting markets and bigger contests for PGA DFS.

Don’t forget to check out the Stokastic PGA DFS projections, which has both scoring data and PGA DFS ownership projections. Stokastic PGA DFS projections come out on Monday and will be updated throughout the week.

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PGA DFS Picks: 2023 Genesis Invitational Preview

The Genesis Invitational has been played at Riviera Country Club since 1999 and has been a fixture of this event throughout its history on the PGA Tour. Riviera is a longer par 71 that plays well over 7,300 yards and features blended poa greens and a lot of tough driving holes. The layout is similar in length to last week’s in Phoenix, but Riviera replaces the stadium and desert aspect with more doglegs, tree-lined holes and thicker rough. It’s likely closer in setup to Torrey Pines and always plays as one of the tougher venues on the PGA.

Last year, Joaquin Niemann won at 19 under par and went off around 50-1 in the betting odds. Niemann has since bolted to the LIV Golf Tour, but this event has produced a big spectrum of winners, from complete longshots like James Hahn in 2015 to betting favorites like Dustin Johnson in 2017. The move back to California brings a more rugged kind of setup, one that emphasizes the need for great off-tee and tee-to-green games.

Ideal conditions saw lower scoring prevail last season, but even though the winner got to 19 under par, there were still only nine players who ended the week with a score of 11 under par or better. Niemann gained over nine strokes on approach for the week but also had a career week around the greens, gaining over 5.1 strokes.

The greens-in-regulation percentage for the field at Riviera has typically trended about 10% under the PGA average, so around-the-green form is important, even if a player is striking the ball well. There are plenty of longer par 3’s and 4’s where firm greens will cause even a slightly off-kilter shot to roll through or bounce off the green. Each of the last three winners gained over two strokes around the greens.

Despite the talk about scrambling, this event really is all about ball striking. Nearly every hole challenges the players off the tee in some fashion. Two of the par 5’s measure over 550 yards and aren’t easy birdie opportunities at all. Most par 4’s have some kind of dogleg, so shaping off the tee is often needed as well.

It’s been rare to see someone win at Riviera who wasn’t already playing well on the West Coast. Ten of the last 12 winners of this event played Pebble Beach or Phoenix as their prior start. Furthermore, only two of the past 10 winners missed the cut in their penultimate start. That rule may be one to avoid given some of the big names who missed out last week, but it still shows that the best players to target this week are those who have played already in the 2023 season.

Below are some of the top players in the field to watch this week given their recent form and course history:

  1. Jon Rahm: Rahm posted yet another top-5 last week. Going back to last fall, he’s posted seven top-5 finishes over his last eight events.
  2. Scottie Scheffler: Scheffler broke out of his winless slump by grabbing another WM Phoenix Open title last week. It was his first since the 2022 Masters. He was laser sharp with his irons and gained over four strokes putting as well.
  3. Sungjae Im: Im posted a sixth-place finish at TPC Scottsdale and again had a terrific week on approach, gaining over four strokes against the field in that category alone. He is playing great golf and last season made the cut at this event for the first time in three tries.
  4. Nick Taylor: Taylor played great last week but ran out of steam at the end and had to settle for runner-up. He has already posted two top-10 finishes in 2023 and has finished 20th or better in three of four starts.
  5. Taylor Moore: Moore has been beastly on the West Coast thus far, posting three top-20 finishes in a row. He has gained strokes on approach and off the tee in three straight events.

Field Notes

Woods being in the field doesn’t mean that much for betting, although a “Tiger to miss the cut bet” likely isn’t a poor idea; it will be his first time teeing it up on the PGA Tour since last July. Last year’s winner, Niemann, isn’t around this year, but the runner-up in Collin Morikawa is. He will be better rested after missing the cut last week. A few other top names in the field this week after missing the weekend in Phoenix include Patrick Cantlay, Russell Henley and Shane Lowry.


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2023 Genesis Invitational Past Winners and Winners Stats

2022: Joaquin Niemann

  • Lead-in: 8th/6th/MC, (didn’t play at Pebble but was sixth at Farmers and played overseas two weeks prior)
  • Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 2.0/SG:APP 5.1/SG:ATG 5.1/SG:PUTT 2.4/SG:TTG 14.1
  • In a lot of ways, Niemann was an easy winner to pick. He was coming off a West Coast start where he’d posted massive positive splits ball striking and set up well for a tougher test where his elite ball striking would truly matter.
  • Niemann’s win was dominant in that there usually are not multiple-stroke winners at Riviera. It also drives home the point of how big an advantage an elite ball striker can have on a course like this if he also hits on a career week around or on the greens.

2021: Max Homa

  • Lead in: 7/42/18 (Homa was playing his fifth week in a row and showed great form at Pebble with a seventh)
  • Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 3.4/SG:APP 2.8/SG:ATG 2.7/SG:PUTT 4.6/SG:TTG 8.8
  • Homa showed great form across a bunch of different West Coast starts — including Pebble Beach, which was played the week prior in 2021.
  • Homa was great across most areas of the game but had a terrific week with the putter. Like many West Coast specialists, he has found a lot of success on the greens at Riviera, Pebble and Torrey Pines — and strong poa putting is never a poor indicator for this event.

2020: Adam Scott

  • Lead-in: 11/33/42, (Scott is the lone winner of this event over the past decade-plus who hadn’t played competitively in the two prior weeks leading up)
  • Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 1.8/SG:APP 6.2/SG:ATG 2.3/SG:PUTT 1.6/SG:TTG 10.3
  • Scott is the one true anomaly among the winners over the past decade at this event. He had played no golf on the PGA Tour or the West Coast prior to winning at Riviera.
  • Scott was dominant in the long game the year of his win and did most of his damage on approach.

Want to see who is trending as a strong play early? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.

2023 Genesis Invitational Course Preview

Riviera Country Club: Par 71, 7,322 (Pacific Palisades, Calif.)

Greens: Poa Annua

Designer: George Thomas (1927)
Renovation Architect (year):
Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore (1992) / Tom Fazio

Similar Courses: Augusta National, Quail Hollow, Muirfield Village

Riviera is a longer par 71, much like last week’s course. However, the venue is set in a much different locale, with different environmental and setup particulars. The routing of Riviera tends to favor a draw for right-handed players off the tee simply due to the plethora of doglegs that tilt slightly in favor of that shot.

Riviera will also offer up plenty of longer approaches no matter which way golfers work the ball. Hitting fairways off the tee is tough at Riviera, and accuracy at this event tends to come in close to 10% under the PGA Tour average. That means players who can get it up fast out of the rough or first cut will have a big advantage. Strong off-tee play always helps, as accuracy keeps players out of the rough and length brings them closer to the hole with an easier approach, even if it’s from the rough.

Putting at Riviera tends to be very tough, and players will not make a lot of mid- to long-range birdie attempts. Three-putt percentages jump way up this week compared to other PGA venues, and scrambling is tough around the venue as well.

Great tee-to-green play is necessary, but focuses on three-putt percentage, proximity from 150 yards and greater, and strokes gained around the green all have merits.

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2023 Genesis Invitational Recent Form Watch

Top Approach Proximity 150-175 Yards (Last 50 Rounds)

  • Joohyung Kim
  • Will Zalatoris
  • Mark Hubbard
  • Jordan Spieth
  • Scottie Scheffler

Strokes Gained Around the Green (Last 50 Rounds)

  • Justin Thomas
  • Danny Willett
  • Scott Piercy
  • Si Woo Kim
  • Tommy Fleetwood

Top Strokes Gained Approach (Last 50 Rounds)

  • Tom Hoge
  • Tony Finau
  • Joohyung Kim
  • Will Zalatoris
  • Scottie Scheffler

2023 Genesis Invitational Weather Forecast

Thursday a.m.: 48-50 F, winds 4-5 mph/0% chance of precipitation

Thursday p.m.: 58-60 F, winds 5-7 mph/0% chance of precipitation

Friday a.m.: 45-50 F, winds 4-5 mph/0% chance of precipitation

Friday p.m.: 58-60 F, winds 5-7 mph/0% chance of precipitation

The weather looks rather similar to last week’s in Phoenix, except that there may be even less wind. The temperatures again will be a slight concern to early starters, as the air for Thursday and Friday morning will be in the 45- to 50-degree range. That will make an already long golf course even tougher. Later starters on Days 1 and 2 should prosper. There is no rain in the forecast, so expect the greens to get a little baked out as the week progresses.

2023 Genesis Invitational Early Betting Targets and DFS Picks

Jason Day | BetMGM Outright

Day’s comeback tour continued last week in Phoenix with a fifth-place finish. He has placed 18th, seventh and fifth in three 2023 starts and looks ready to seriously challenge again, even against some of the world’s best players. His off-tee game has been excellent on two tough courses in a row, gaining him 3.6 strokes against the field at both Torrey Pines and TPC Scottsdale. Day’s overall proximity on longer approaches has been improving, and his putting has been fantastic of late as well. While his record at Riviera leaves a lot to be desired, he’s had plenty of West Coast success in his career and seems well overdue for a decent week at this event. Taking him early on in the week at what should be decent odds makes sense as an outright play.

Patrick Rodgers | BetMGM Outright

Rodgers has recently had to overcome some undisclosed injury issues, which slowed his start to 2023. He seemed to get back on track in a big way last week in Phoenix, closing out his round with a 65 and finishing in 14th. Rodgers gained strokes in every category at Scottsdale and was great off the tee, gaining over three strokes. If that carries over to Riviera, he’ll be in fine shape to pay off for bettors this week, as he’s one of the top-ranked poa putters over the last 50 rounds. He has played Riviera seven times as a pro and finished 26th or better on four occasions. Rodgers looks like a play for the top-10 and top-20 markets and should be a great value to build around in PGA DFS contests this week.

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