We are in San Diego this week for the Farmers Insurance Open. This is another multi-course event with each golfer playing the North Course on either Thursday or Friday, with the weekend featuring the South Course alone. The cut will be after 36 holes unlike last week’s crazy 54-hole cut. We have a full field of players to choose from which means plenty to explore in the golf betting markets.
The first thing that we should notice is the strength of this field is in a different category then the past few weeks. This is going to push quality players down the board in the outright markets, but also make it more difficult for a truly unknown to grab a victory. I prefer fields like this with win equity more concentrated as it opens it up for valuable prices in the middle tier.
For additional info about the course and some guys to consider in your lineups, make sure to read the DFS Farmers Insurance Above the Cut Article which can help you build teams, but let’s take a look at what we have on the golf betting side of things.
** When betting futures, one of the most important aspects is making sure you shop around for the best number available to you. Over time, this can make a massive difference in the results so make sure to stay tuned for all the resources available to help you find the most value when looking across the golf betting markets**
Futures/Outrights Winners
Hideki Matsuyama 22-1
Mastuyama showed real promise at the Sony with the way he struck the ball and it is just a matter of time before he finds himself back in the winners circle. Still, there is no denying this two-plus-year drought is concerning for a player of this caliber. Mastuyama was third last year at this event and his ability with the long irons sets up perfectly for a course that will force you into a lot of those shots.
Guys like Rory Mcilroy and Jon Rahm will set the pricing and the market as a whole. The win equity is immense with the big names, but the one positive is it creates reasonable prices on world class players like Mastuyama who are still live to win anywhere, anytime. It is certainly a little unnerving to back a guy to win who hasn’t in some time, but Matsuyama is too talented to continue this drought and this is a great course for him to get into contention once again.
Tony Finau 25-1
I just said it is unnerving to back a guy like Mastuyama who hasn’t won in a few years, but now we get to an even more uncomfortable situation. Finau has all the talent in the world yet somehow has just a lone win to the resume, the 2016 Puerto Rico Open. That’s not exactly the resume we want for an outright in a field like this, but if we dig deeper, we see why Finau makes some sense.
Finau may only have one win, but he has six runner-up finishes to his name so far. It is amazing how different the narrative would be around him if he ever closed one of those second-place finishes rather than continuously letting those chances slip away. He played last week at the Amex and the game looked crisp even with an uneventful 14th-place finish.
Finau comes to a course and event he seems to love with five straight top 25s and a fourth- and a sixth-place finish in recent years. I will back him at 25-1 here considering he checks out across the board despite the lack of wins.
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Top 10
Pat Perez 11-1
Perez is a hard guy to gauge and he is an interesting tournament play on the DFS side of things. His game can be hit or miss which is why it’s difficult to narrow in on him in specific tournaments. He comes to the Farmers where he already has two top 10 finishes to his name including a runner-up back in 2014. Despite the 45th-place finish last week, Perez gained everywhere besides on the greens and that is a positive at a place that will demand quality golf shots.
The odds of a top 10 sit around 11-1, which is enough value for me to take a position on a guy who easily has the talent to be in the hunt. The miss-cut equity is more a concern on the DFS side of things as we are trying to tap into Perez’s upside here at a price that is too long even with the strong field.
Matchup
Sungjae Im -125 vs. Collin Morikawa
Last week was smooth sailing in the matchups department as Russell Knox was able to hold off Vaughn Taylor and his late charge on the weekend. This week has a lot of top-tier talent matched up against each other, and I’m interested in a matchup between two of the young guns on tour. Sungjae Im has been impressive with his ability to play every week and deal with almost any type of setup effectively. He has no weakness in the game and many people think he will grab his first victory in this 2020 season.
On the other side of this matchup is Colin Morikawa, who already has a PGA tour victory to the resume in just a handful of starts. He fell down the leaderboard late on Sunday at the Sony, but he is consistently finding the weekend and leaning on the ball striking to get the job done. When looking at a matchup between two players of this caliber, it is the small edges that make the difference as they both are extremely talented.
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I will once again be backing a player against Morikawa and it is for similar reasons as the Sony. Morikawa doesn’t have as well rounded a game and if scrambling and around the green become important, I think he could struggle. The putter is come and go which is similar to most guys on tour, but it’s a lot of pressure on the irons even for a guy this good. On the other side, Im is a much better short game player and while the ball striking isn’t on the level of Morikawa, I trust him more at a course like this. He also played here last year while Morikawa will be seeing this event for the first time. These small margins are enough for me to back Im as a slight favorite and hope that we once again see him produce a quality result.
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Quick Notes
If you are unfamiliar with golf betting or just looking to dive into it for the first time, make sure to understand each type of bet and how to properly bankroll for each. When choosing a few outright players at long odds, we are hoping to hit one of those a year as it would pay for the entire season and then some. Think of that as the large-field GPPs where you hope to tread water and then rely on a big hit once every year or so to do major damage.
On the other side, we have head-to-head bets which naturally are more like cash games or head-to-heads in DFS where you aren’t going to win a huge multiplier of your money, but should be hitting them at a reasonable clip. Just getting a clearer picture of what each bet is like is important as this is a long season with a lot of opportunities to take some stabs in the golf betting markets.
Good luck everyone!
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