The PGA Tour continues this week with the first stop on the Florida swing and the Honda Classic. This event used to be one of the flagship stops when the tour flipped over to this side of the USA, but since it lost out on the elevated event status, most of the top names have chosen to skip it. However, PGA National remains one of the crown jewel venues of the PGA schedule.
This will be a variance-filled event given the weaker upper end of the field, and taking some shots with players down the board in terms of odds is a good strategy for betting. Do not forget to check out the Stokastic PGA DFS projections, which has both scoring data and PGA DFS ownership projections. Stokastic PGA DFS projections come out on Monday and will be updated throughout the week.
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PGA DFS Picks: 2023 Honda Classic Preview
The Honda Classic takes place on PGA National — one of the wildest venues in terms of scoring. The field this week will be led by Sungjae Im and Billy Horschel, who remain the only two players in the field in the top 20 in OWGR as of writing. The field here expands as well, as there are 144 players ready to tee it up this week.
PGA National is also a huge change in venue from the West Coast. The PGA has not played on a par 70 since the opener in Hawaii at Waialae, and PGA National in many ways is like the suped-up version of that course. Smaller greens and tight driving holes make it very similar to the host course for the Sony Open, but the abundance of water and sand means that off-kilter shots don’t just take away a shot at making a birdie, but also bring in double or worse very quickly.
This event has run the gamut in terms of past winners. Rory McIlroy and Rickie Fowler have both won with short odds over the past 10 seasons, but there have been numerous winners go off at 100-1 or higher in the odds prior to teeing off. Sepp Straka was around 100-1 last season, and Matt Jones was between 80-1 to 100-1 at many sportsbooks as well. The high penalty for poor shots means wild swings in the leaderboard and the potential for anyone to burst out of the pack. It can be painful for predicting, but the event is always one of the most entertaining of this season.
Below are some of the top players in the field to watch this week given their recent form and course history:
- Sungjae Im: This will be Im’s fifth event in six weeks. He is used to playing a lot of golf, but he finished 56th last week and struggled everywhere but off the tee.
- Billy Horschel: Horschel missed the cut at the Genesis a week after finishing 32nd at the Phoenix Open. He seems to be dealing with issues relating to his swing changes but does fit the kind of veteran profile worth targeting at this venue.
- Shane Lowry: Lowry played well last week, ultimately finishing in 14th place at the Genesis. He has played this event five times prior and has never missed a cut. He also finished runner-up at this event last season.
- Aaron Wise: Wise skipped last week after missing the cut at the American Express and Phoenix Open. It has been an incredibly poor start to the season for Wise, who was in contention at this event in 2021.
- Thomas Detry: Detry made the cut yet again last week at Riviera, his 10th in a row in the PGA Tour. He has not finished inside the top 30 in three straight events, however, so it is possible he will need a break soon.
Field Notes: Pierceson Coody will be making his Honda Classic debut. The Korn Ferry Tour member has already won twice this season and was one of the best amateur golfers in the world prior to making his pro jump. Min Woo Lee is also playing and making his debut this week. He has not finished worse than 13th in an event over his last 10 starts as a pro.
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2023 Honda Classic Past Winners and Winners Stats
2022: Sepp Straka
- Lead-in: 16/66/15, (Two top-20 finishes – Riviera and Torrey Pines – on the West Coast swing)
- Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 5.0/SG:APP 3.3/SG:ATG 0.8/SG:PUTT 6.0/SG:TTG 9.2
- Straka had a career week on the greens last season but was also very consistent in the ball-striking department.
- The fact he gained more strokes off the tee than on approach was atypical, but his six strokes putting made up for the gap.
- Straka finished top 20 at Riviera in his final start before Honda.
2021: Matt Jones
- Lead in: 55/MC/8 (Top 10 at Riviera on West Coast)
- Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 2.8/SG:APP 5.9/SG:ATG 5.6/SG:PUTT 2.2/SG:TTG 14.3
- Jones’ approach and around-the-green numbers were elite when he won, and that’s typically what one would expect from a winner at PGA National, where the small greens and numerous bunkers stress approach play and around-the-green skill.
- The Honda came after the Players when Jones won, but he had shown signs of form, with a top-10 at Riviera three starts earlier.
2020: Sungjae Im
- Lead-in: 29/MC/34, (Top 10 prior on West Coast at American Express)
- Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 2.5/SG:APP 6.2/SG:ATG 3.6/SG:PUTT 1.0/SG:TTG 12.3
- Im was elite throughout the bag on a week where the conditions made for very tough scoring.
- Like the other recent winners, he had a solid result on the West Coast (10th at American Express) and was playing consistent golf at the time of his win.
Want to see who is trending as a strong play early? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.
2023 Honda Classic Course Preview
PGA National: Par 70, 7,100-7,200 yards (Palm Beach Gardens)
Greens: Bermuda
Designer: Tom and George Fazio (1981)
Renovation Architect (year): Jack Nicklaus (multiple)
Similar Courses: Waialae Country Club, Harbour Town Golf Links, TPC Sawgrass
PGA National is the prototypical long, tough par 70 on the PGA Tour that challenges players with tight driving holes (guarded by sand and water) and smaller greens where pinpoint accuracy is a must. The venue was designed by Tom Fazio in 1981 but redesigned by Jack Nicklaus who provided the signature finishing hole stretch, named the “bear trap”.
The longer par 70 has a plethora of water traps and is just off the coast of Florida, making it susceptible to gusting winds, which can turn this event into a survival fest quickly. There will be double bogies or worse this week, and the cut line has sometimes hovered well below 2 over par.
Top finishers at PGA National tend to gain the most on approach out of all the major strokes gained categories. The largest basket of shots on approach is from 175 to 200 yards, so this isn’t a simple wedge fest where hot putting alone can give golfers a chance at the win. Players will need to hit aggressively with mid to long irons on many holes, and several of the par 3’s are over water with little to no bailout options.
This is a venue where a good short game and hot putter can only get golfers so far. At some point, golfers will have to execute tough shots to avoid penalties and multiple doubles or worse on the card. There are a variety of different courses that play similarly, and TPC Sawgrass likely has the best correlation. Multiple Players Championship winners like Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler, Adam Scott and Rory McIlroy have also won at PGA National over their careers. As such, looking at other tight Pete Dye venues like PGA Stadium and Harbour Town — and the recent leaderboards from those events — also makes sense.
Key Stats: Strokes Gained on Approach/Strokes Gained Proximity (175+ yards)/Strokes Gained Around the Green
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2023 Honda Classic Recent Form Watch
Top Approach Proximity 175+ Yards (Last 50 Rounds)
- Vaughn Taylor
- Satoshi Kodaira
- Robert Garrigus
- Davis Riley
- Calum Tarren
Strokes Gained Around the Green (Last 50 Rounds)
- Danny Willett
- Robbie Shelton
- William McGirt
- Stephan Jaeger
- Luke Donald
Top Strokes Gained on Approach (Last 24 Rounds)
- Russell Knox
- Nick Hardy
- Erik van Rooyen
- Robbie Shelton
- Sepp Straka
2023 Honda Classic Weather Forecast
Thursday a.m.: 72-75 F, winds 6-8 mph/0% chance of precipitation
Thursday p.m.: 80-82 F, winds 12-14 mph/0% chance of precipitation
Friday a.m.: 70-72 F, winds 5-6 mph/0% chance of precipitation
Friday p.m.: 80-82 F, winds 7-9 mph/0% chance of precipitation
This is Florida, so there is bound to be at least a little wind on each day of the event. PGA National isn’t right on the ocean, but it is not far inland either. The wind can get pretty crazy at times, and a couple of days this week have some heavier gusts in the forecast. Thursday looks far windier than Friday as of writing, and depending on how the rest of the week goes, the Thursday afternoon wave may get the worst conditions of the first day — but also may have nice conditions to go off in on Friday morning. It will pay to take a wait-and-see approach to weather stacking this week.
2023 Honda Classic Early Betting Targets and DFS Picks
Kirk was a fixture on leaderboards early on in the season, posting back-to-back third-place finishes at the Sony Open and American Express. A missed cut at Phoenix isn’t overly encouraging, but Kirk took last week off to prepare for this week’s event, which shows where his mind may be. He is far more likely to compete for the win at a venue like PGA National and has shown high-end upside with his irons in both of his top-5’s, gaining over four strokes on approach at both PGA Stadium and Waialae Country Club — where the small greens and tighter driving holes of those courses have a lot in common with PGA National.
Kirk has been positive in strokes gained putting and around the green in three straight starts and finished seventh at this event last season. He is the kind of veteran player who pops for big weeks at the technical and demanding PGA National, and he makes sense as an early-week target in the outright market.
Danny Willett | BetMGM Outright
Willett has bounced back quickly from a shoulder injury that limited his starts early in 2023. He has been making the most of his starts lately on the PGA Tour and is only a few months removed from a near win on the West Coast over the fall at the Fortinet. He finished 18th at Riviera last week and looks to be rounding into form just in time for this week’s event.
Overall, PGA National should be an excellent fit for Willett. The course doesn’t demand players hit driver on a ton of holes, but the smaller greens mean that short games must be sharp and great short- to mid-iron play is a must. Willett finished 48th at this event last season but gained multiple strokes on approach and likely would have pushed for a top-10 if not for a terrible week on the greens. If he improves in that area, he could easily push for a top-20 or better this week — making him a good placing bet and upside value to target in DFS lineups.
