Honda Classic First Round Leader Picks: Sneaky Garrick Higgo

The Honda Classic has the PGA Tour switching coasts and beginning the Florida swing. The field for this week has lost a lot of top names, and there are just two top-20 players: Sungjae Im and Billy Horschel. Combine the lack of top-end talent with a course with a lot of wind and water, and this is a highly variable tournament for betting. The average winner’s odds over the past decade have been around 100-1, and the first-round leader market for this event has also produced a lot of longshots as well.

With the help of OddsShopper’s golf betting tools, let’s examine the best value plays for Honda Classic first-round leader bets.

2023 Honda Classic First Round Leader Bets

It is important to note that, since the tour is in Florida, the early mornings will not be as crisp as they were on the West Coast. Early starters in Florida generally have more of an advantage, as they often miss the afternoon winds, which tend to still be very volatile around this time of year. The past six seasons at PGA National have produced at least one first-round leader who started in the morning wave — and four of the last six seasons have produced solo first-round leaders with early starts. As such, this card focuses on players who tee off in the morning.

Garrick Higgo First Round Leader (+6500) at DraftKings

Higgo has had a couple of decent starts on the new season and is the kind of player who should have success around PGA National. He has proven himself more than capable of going low on shorter PGA venues and has rounds of 64 and 63 over his last eight starts — both of which came on similar courses to PGA National. While the approach game can come and go with Higgo, he has been very consistent off the tee of late and has a short game and putter that can spike at any time.

Encouraging signs for this week include opening with a 68 at this tournament on his first-ever go around PGA National last year. He has an early tee time and should be encouraged by his game and the weaker field. His price is more than fair considering the other options with lower odds than him.

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Seong-hyeon Kim First Round Leader (+6600) at BetMGM

Kim comes into this event having made the cut in three straight starts and could make some noise this week. He has proven to be elite on the greens, having gained strokes in that area in seven straight tournaments. His approach game was not great last week at Riviera, but Kim has had decent weeks ball striking at venues that compare well to PGA National, and he gained over three strokes off the tee and on approach at the Sony Open. He has also shown a solid propensity for getting off to fast starts, having shot 68 or better in six of his last nine PGA tournaments.

It will be his first time playing PGA National, but the confidence with Kim seems to be growing as he gets more time on tour. He will surely be encouraged by the change to a more technical venue this week as well.

For a wager on BetMGM this week, Kim is a first-round leader target to consider. He has solid 66-1 odds there, longer than most other places. New BetMGM users even get first bet insurance up to $1,000!

Robby Shelton First Round Leader (+6000) at DraftKings

Shelton has quietly been playing some very good golf. He ranks first in strokes gained around the green over the last 50 rounds of play, and he has been consistent in the ball-striking department, gaining strokes on his approaches in three straight starts. Shelton finished 11th at this venue back in 2020, shooting 70 of better in four rounds, and he is only three starts removed from a sixth-place finish at the American Express in which he shot 66 or better in three rounds.

Shelton is yet another player in this very generous 60-1 range with a nice blend of course history and solid recent form. Given the weaker competition, this range looks great to target for Thursday morning.

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Honda Classic First Round Leader Longshot Bets

Long-shot bets in the first-round leader market hit all the time on the PGA Tour. You can always use OddsShopper’s tools to check out and compare odds across the major sites.

Jason Dufner First Round Leader (+15000) at BetMGM

Jason Dufner First Round Top 5 (+2500) at BetMGM

Jason Dufner has won numerous times at courses similar to PGA National (TPC Stadium for the American Express especially comes to mind). He is coming off his best finish in some time — a 32nd placing at TPC Scottsdale. The result may not sound like much, but to a golfer who had missed eight cuts in a row, it probably felt like a huge weight was lifted off his shoulders.

Dufner’s outing in Phoenix was also significant, as he showed that still has some game left. He gained over four strokes around the green and on approach and has been very solid as a scrambler of late despite the missed cuts, gaining strokes around the green in three straight events. As a veteran who has shot numerous rounds of 68 or better at PGA National, Dufner makes sense at long odds with an early tee time.