PGA DFS Fades & Pivots PLAYERS Championship: Rory McIlroy Spiking

The PGA Tour is at the first “major” golf tournament of the season this week, and with a large field in play, there will be lots of pivot options to consider in all ranges. While it is impossible to avoid all the chalk, Sawgrass is a cauldron of volatility that can push even the best players in the world to miss the weekend. PLAYERS like Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay and Tony Finau — whom some will pick to win this week’s event — have already missed three or more cuts at this tournament in their careers. That doesn’t mean avoid all of the popular players, but with the help of Stokastic’s projections for both ownership and scoring, we will wade through and find out who are the most likely bust candidates in the field.

Below are some of the top PGA DFS fades and pivots for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy lineups. Stokastic’s expert PGA DFS projections and rankings can help identify the best picks for the 2023 PLAYERS Championship.

PGA DFS Golf Fades & Pivots | PLAYERS Championship

THE PLAYERS Championship is again at TPC Sawgrass, a Pete Dye design that was created specifically for this event back in 1981. The course plays as a traditional par 72 around 7,200 to 7,300 yards, depending on setup. While the venue is not overly long, the variance at Sawgrass tends to be massive. Water comes into play on nearly every hole, and the small greens and stadium-like setting on several holes give it a claustrophobic feel where small misses can become big numbers. The emphasis is more on execution and course management than pure power, so it is not shocking that the tournament has seen a wide swath of winners. For this season, wind is not expected to be overly penal, but both Friday afternoon and Saturday have a chance to see increased gusts.

TPC Sawgrass Stats and Info

Driving distance here is typically 5 to 7 yards less than the average tour stop. Sawgrass has plenty of forced layup holes where players will need to club down to avoid water or take trouble out of play. As a result, driving accuracy numbers tend to be quite high.
The forced layups also lead to more long approaches, as the most popular basket of distance this week is from over 200 yards.
Winners at TPC Sawgrass also tend to excel around the greens. Scrambling here is tough, and the field typically only gets up and down around 50% to 55% of the time. The last five winners here gained 1.5 strokes or more around the green for the week of their win, and three of the last five gained 2.5 strokes around the green for the week.

2023 PLAYERS Championship DFS Golf Fades and Pivots

High-End Fade: Scottie Scheffler

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 23.6% | FanDuel: 31.2%

Up top this week on DraftKings are three players who all come in over $10,500. The first inclination of many will be to simply save salary by taking the cheapest option in Scheffler, who did himself and DFS lineups no harm last week when he finished fourth. Scheffler’s play down the stretch was not the greatest, and he has been in contention in three of his last four starts. It is slightly concerning as well that his putter has gone cold in Florida (he lost a stroke on the greens last week), and it is worth noting that his lack of consistency on the greens is what caused his second-half slump last season. Scheffler has played Sawgrass twice and missed the cut in 2021 and could only manage a 55th last season, coming off another busy weekend at the Arnold Palmer. With his PGA DFS ownership projections clearly higher than the other two elite players, he makes for the most obvious fade in this range.

High-End Pivot: Rory McIlroy

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 18.6% | FanDuel: 30.9%

McIlroy does not just have lower PGA DFS ownership projections than Scheffler this week, but he also has a better top-6 percentage on Stokastic as well. McIlroy trumps Scheffler by nearly 2% in that regard and also has the course history edge at Sawgrass, where he won in 2019 and finished top 10 from 2013 to 2015. Both McIlroy and Scheffler were solid last week, but McIlroy looked more confident down the stretch and finally flipped his putter into positive territory. He is not only the stronger projected scorer this week, but paying up for him will also potentially get leverage in larger fields over Scheffler’s high PGA DFS ownership projections.

Latest PGA DFS Content

High-End Fade: Tom Kim

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 21.7% | FanDuel: 14.7%

The Kim train has certainly stalled out over the last few events. He finished 34th at the Arnold Palmer, which would not have been terrible if he weren’t expensive and one of the more highly owned players in the field. Kim is far cheaper this week at just $8,100 on DraftKings, but it has also caused his PGA DFS ownership projections to spike back into the 20%-plus range. Kim had slightly better ball striking last week, but he is going to be challenged by the tricky Sawgrass greens and isn’t nearly as sharp as he was to begin the season. With him projecting as one of the most popular plays on the slate, he makes for a solid fade in the low-$8,000 range on DraftKings.

High-End Pivot: Tommy Fleetwood

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 5.7% | FanDuel: 5.3%

Fleetwood admittedly is projecting for slightly weaker top-6 probability ratings than Kim, but he also has a couple of major factors working in his favor for DFS that make him very attractive as a pivot option. Fleetwood has played TPC Sawgrass five times in his career and finished 22nd or better in three of his last four visits to the course. He has also played decent golf to start the year and was solid everywhere but on the greens last week at Bay Hill. Fleetwood is by no means a must-play, but with his PGA DFS ownership projections sitting in the sub-6% range Stokastic, he makes for a cheaper way to pivot off Kim and get access to a player who has proven to be capable for spiking in elite-field tournaments.

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Mid-Range Fade: Rickie Fowler

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 17.1% | FanDuel: 12.7%

Fowler has had a solid start to the season, but his cheap price and solid made-cut rate in 2023 have definitely inflated his potential ownership. While his comeback story is certainly one to get behind, it’s concerning that his ball striking took a pretty massive dip last week and that he wasn’t able to take advantage of a solid week on the greens. There are also five golfers in the $7,000 ranked ahead of Fowler in Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, provide plenty of options to use as pivots off him in PGA DFS tournaments.

Mid-Range Pivot: Corey Conners

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 13.2% | FanDuel: 6.6%

Conners started off hot last week but ultimately faded a bit on the weekend. He still finished 21st and was able to gain nearly seven strokes off the tee and on approach. The fact he was able to putt at field average should also bode well for his chances at improving at Sawgrass given he gains most of his strokes on approach when things are going well. Conners has the experience and has an 8.1% top-6 probability rating on Stokastic, which is higher than Fowler’s. He is trending well after last week and makes for a natural pivot option in this range.