PGA DFS Fades & Pivots WM Phoenix Open: Patrick Cantlay Hasn't Found It

The second elevated event of the season is here, and this time it’s a full-field event. Nearly every single one of the top players on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week in Scottsdale, with Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and last year’s champion Scottie Scheffler all looking to grab a win. The event will be held at TPC Scottsdale once again, but the added prize money and strength of the field will give it a different flavor for DFS purposes in 2023. Unlike the last few weeks when the strength at the top left few options, there are lots of big names to choose from for PGA DFS lineup building.

Below are some of the top PGA DFS fades and pivots for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy lineups. Stokastic’s expert PGA DFS projections and rankings can help identify the best picks for the 2023 WM Phoenix Open.

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PGA DFS Golf Fades & Pivots | WM Phoenix Open

TPC Scottsdale is a solid, all-around test of golf that provides ample scoring chances but also carries lots of holes where double-bogey or worse are possible. The venue plays as a par 71 that measures just under 7,300 yards, and while it has some links-like features, it also features plenty of water. The open layout allows players to take more chances off the tee, and the driving averages for the field are often at or over 300 yards for the week. Strong off-tee play is essential, but the tournament is still won with good iron play and putting. Five of the last seven winners gained six or more strokes on their approaches for the week.

TPC Scottsdale Stats & Info

Course is 7,261 yards, par 71 with three par 5’s that all measure under 560 yards and play as solid risk/reward holes.
Six par 4’s measure in over 445 yards in length, and even though fairways here only typically yield a 57-58% driving accuracy rate, driving distance measures out 10-12 yards higher than the tour average.
Longer hitters also get to see shorter approaches and the 150-175 yard range of approaches is the most popular here over time, but there is also a decent number of holes that allow for shots in the 125-150 yard range.

TPC Scottsdale 2023 DFS Golf Fades and Pivots

High-End Fade: Patrick Cantlay

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 22.1% | FanDuel: 22.8%

Cantlay was a playoff loser at this event last season and projects as one of the top-owned plays this week as a result. He really has not done all that much lately and ranks outside the top 15 in strokes gained tee to green over the last 50 rounds. His ball striking hasn’t been great to start the year, and he’s yet to gain over two strokes in the long game in either of his first two starts. He obviously sets up well for what is always a great all-around test of golf in TPC Scottsdale, but as a top-owned play there are far more pivots in his price range in better form for 2023. Use the elevated field to your advantage and find a pivot to the slow-starting Cantlay.

High-End Pivot: Sungjae Im

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 15.8%| FanDuel: 15.2%

Im rates out right in among all of the top players in the 9k range but considering how crowded that range is, do not expect his ownership to get out of hand. If he stays in the 15% owned range, he will be a great pivot off of Cantlay and he certainly has shown more in 2023 in terms of form. Im’s last start was at Torrey Pines where he gained over seven strokes on approach for the week and was second in that category only to Max Homa. Im’s proven to have the kind of putting upside and riving consistency to compete on longer more challenging golf courses and seems like a future winner at Scottsdale. Taking the lower price and what should be decent ownership levels makes him a proper pivot in this range.

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Mid-Range Fade: Brian Harman

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 22.1% | FanDuel: 18.4%

Harman does look slightly undervalued for this event but at the same time, his PGA DFS ownership projections of over 20% makes him a clear fade target. He’s disadvantaged off the tee on the longer setup and is truly a player who can spike and fade based on how his putter is rolling week in and week out. Again, Harman’s elite putting and short iron play means he can compete against these elite fields, but there will also be plenty of weeks where he simply fails to get off the ground and crushes your lineups at this high an ownership level. He’s coming off a missed cut at one of his favorite venues in TPC Stadium so there’s not a ton of good vibes working in his favor this week.

Mid-Range Pivot: Russell Henley

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 9.9%| FanDuel: 6.5%

Henley can be a streaky player as well, but unlike Harman, he does have a skill set that tends to lift him to more consistent higher finishes. Henley can hit his irons as well as anyone and certainly fits that Webb Simpson mold of a player who has won at this venue before. Henley gained over 3.5 strokes on approach in each of his prior two starts and has certainly had some time to sharpen up the short game and putter for this week. He’s also projecting at less than half the ownership of Harman which really does make him an easy pivot considering the two of them are ranked side-by-side in the Stokastic PGA DFS projections this week as well.

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Mid-Range Fade: Taylor Montgomery

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 12.0% | FanDuel: 13.5%

Montgomery had a pretty terrible weekend performance that saw him drop from a top-5 position to 31st overall for the week. He will now take on another tricky course in TPC Scottsdale where his sub-par iron play could get him into trouble on the back nine, which has plenty of water. Montgomery’s performance over the fall means he’ll be highly owned this week once again and it wouldn’t be shocking if he came in on the higher end of his range this week and maybe even pushed for over 15% owned. While he’s projecting strong, there are clear pivots in this range that make Montgomery a solid fade once again this week on high ownership.

Mid-Range Pivot: Tyrrell Hatton

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 7.1% | FanDuel: 7.6%

Hatton is rarely a player that gets a ton of hype in DFS contests. The Englishman still spends a lot of his time playing on the DP World Tour which means his good results get less press coverage. He finished seventh two starts ago on that Tour and has finished top 10 in four of his last seven DP World Tour starts. He’s also projecting extremely well on the site model this week, coming in with the second-highest-scoring PGA DFS projections of any player under $8,500 on DraftKings. Hatton’s PGA DFS ownership projections look almost disrespectful and with him having finished 15th at this venue back in 2019 (his only other start) he looks like a strong pivot for the 2023 version of this event in PGA DFS contests.