Having a variety of viewpoints and data points can be both a curse and a blessing. In this article, I sift through all the data and give you top picks from all four statistical angles that make up PGA DFS. After a week off following the Tour Championship, the swing season begins with the Fortinet Championship. The course at Silverado Resort and Spa has been used since 2014, and plenty of professional golf has been played over the last 12 weeks giving us a complete data set. Here’s this week’s info.
PGA DFS Picks This Week: The Fortinet Championship
Recent Form
The influx of rookies into the mix this week will shake up the results. With a bunch of names playing well on tours other than the PGA Tour, it will be interesting to see if the form can translate to the big stage. Jon Rahm is playing like the best player in the world, having shot the best gross score despite losing to Patrick Cantlay on the net side. That is his third win in the last four months — to go along with his U.S. Open and Memorial wins — and his fifth straight top-10 in the last 12 weeks.
Only Taylor Moore, David Skinns, Joshua Creel and Kevin Na have more than four top-10s in the last 12 weeks. Na is the only one to accomplish it on the PGA Tour and the only one to have six top-25s on the PGA Tour over the past 12 weeks, while Chad Ramey and Taylor Pendtrith both have done it on the Korn Ferry Tour. Alex Smalley has five top-25s on a variety of tours, including his tie for 29th at the Wyndham Championship. This week only three other golfers have at least five top-25s in the field: Turk Pettit, Trevor Werbylo and Brett Drewitt.
Check out the full list Korn Ferry Tour Graduates to see who will be joining the main tour this year.
Negative Recent Form
D.J. Trahan has no top-25s and just one made cut in eight starts. Ben Martin and Chase Seiffert are the only two golfers in the field other than Trahan that have nine starts over the last 12 weeks but no top-25s. On the bright side, each of them has made four cuts. Eighteen others have competed at least six times over the last nine weeks and have not found the top 25. Some of those names include Danny Willett, Kyle Stanley, Matt Kuchar and Doc Redman.
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PGA DFS Picks Based on Recent Form
- Jon Rahm ($12,100)
- Kevin Na ($10,000)
- Mito Pereira ($8,000)
- Roger Sloan ($7,800)
- Taylor Moore ($7,700)
- Chad Ramey ($7,000)
Course History
Silverado has been the host course of the event since 2014, but only five golfers have come in the top 10 multiple times: Ryan Moore, Phil Mickelson, Na and Brendan Steele. Steele won back-to-back times in 2016 and 2017 and has not missed a cut here in the last six years. Only two other golfers have made the cut here in each of the last six years: Harold Varner III and Chez Reavie. Hudson Swafford is the only other golfer with four or more trips to Napa Valley since 2015 other than Varner, Steele and Reavie.
Harry Higgs, Dylan Frittelli and Cameron Percy have each come in the top 25 in their two starts here at Silverado, and Higgs came in second last year. Marc Leishman also finished third in his only start over the last six years back in 2019. Doug Ghim and Sahith Theegala also finished 14th last year in their only start, while Rahm finished 15th in his only start way back in 2016.
Negative
Since his top-10 in 2015, Chris Stroud has missed the cut each of his next four trips to the Fortinet Championship. Scott Brown, John Huh, Kelly Kraft and Scott Stallings have all accumulated at least four missed cuts since 2015.
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Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Course History
- Harold Varner ($9,100)
- Chez Reavie ($8,400)
- Harry Higgs ($7,600)
- Ryan Moore ($7,500)
- Brendan Steele ($7,400)
- Cameron Percy ($6.800)
Strokes Gained
A year’s worth of data should clearly indicate where golfers excel and where they struggle. For perspective, the average number of strokes gained for each stat has been added. Each week this column will also include the most important stat for the week and the top 10 rankings based on the average strokes gained from those stats.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green
- Jon Rahm (1.767)
- Will Zalatoris (1.184)
- Hideki Matsuyama (1.074)
- Doug Ghim (0.909)
- Luke List (0.892)
- Charley Hoffman (0.864)
- Webb Simpson (0.818)
- Harold Varner III (0.792)
- Kyle Stanley (0.761)
- Emiliano Grillo (0.666)
Strokes Gained Off the Tee
- Jon Rahm (0.834)
- Cameron Champ (0.593)
- Luke List (0.557)
- Charles Howell III (0.505)
- Emiliano Grillo (0.368)
- Charley Hoffman (0.341)
- Jim Herman (0.336)
- Brandon Hagy (0.33)
- Will Zalatoris (0.319)
- Patrick Rodgers (0.305)
Strokes Gained on Approach
- Jon Rahm (0.717)
- Will Zalatoris (0.751)
- Hideki Matsuyama (0.614)
- Cameron Percy (0.698)
- Matthew NeSmith (0.683)
- Emiliano Grillo (0.669)
- Charley Hoffman (0.646)
- Kyle Stanley (0.55)
- Russell Knox (0.522)
- Doug Ghim (0.516)
Strokes Gained Around the Green
- Kevin Na (0.702)
- Danny Willett (0.518)
- Fabián Gómez (0.484)
- Si Woo Kim (0.467)
- Webb Simpson (0.353)
- Dylan Frittelli (0.312)
- Wyndham Clark (0.29)
- Cameron Tringale (0.242)
- Nate Lashley (0.241)
- Bill Haas (0.24)
Strokes Gained Putting
- J.T. Poston (0.706)
- Brendon Todd (0.62)
- Chesson Hadley (0.552)
- Cameron Tringale (0.48)
- Adam Hadwin (0.471)
- Webb Simpson (0.435)
- Denny McCarthy (0.435)
- Patton Kizzire (0.432)
- Hank Lebioda (0.431)
- Brice Garnett (0.396)
Strokes Gained Putting + Approach
- Jon Rahm (1.048)
- Charley Hoffman (0.976)
- Cameron Tringale (0.843)
- Webb Simpson (0.828)
- Lanto Griffin (0.778)
- Hank Lebioda (0.763)
- Will Zalatoris (0.685)
- Patton Kizzire (0.601)
- Talor Gooch (0.575)
- Emiliano Grillo (0.565)
For the yearly strokes gained ranks, Click here.
Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Strokes Gained
- Webb Simpson ($10,800)
- Will Zalatoris ($10,500)
- Charley Hoffman ($8,800)
- Cameron Tringale ($9,700)
- Lanto Griffin ($7,300)
- Hank Lebioda ($7,100)
Old School Statistics
With the average fairway hit just about 55% of the time and considerably low scores, we can surmise that the rough is not penal at a course like this. This course is also quite short, measuring only 7,200 yards, with approximately eight or nine wedge shots per day.
Greens in Regulation
- Jon Rahm
- Matthew NeSmith
- Emiliano Grillo
- Cameron Percy
- Will Zalatoris
- Webb Simpson
- Joseph Bramlett
- Adam Schenk
- Bo Hoag
- Kyle Stanley
Proximity
- Emiliano Grillo
- Vaughn Taylor
- Kyle Stanley
- Chez Reavie
- Doug Ghim
- K.J. Choi
- Cameron Percy
- Jason Dufner
- Russell Knox
- Brian Stuard
Total Driving
- Jon Rahm
- Hudson Swafford
- James Hahn
- Cameron Champ
- Emiliano Grillo
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Doug Ghim
- Tyler McCumber
- Matthew NeSmith
- Brendan Steele
Around the Green Proximity
- Vaughn Taylor
- Hank Lebioda
- Kevin Na
- Brian Stuard
- Pat Perez
- Doug Ghim
- Aaron Baddeley
- Tom Hoge
- Cameron Tringale
- Joseph Bramlett
Birdie or Better
- Jon Rahm
- Webb Simpson
- Patton Kizzire
- Charley Hoffman
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Emiliano Grillo
- Harry Higgs
- Sebastián Muñoz
- Cameron Tringale
- Doug Ghim
Putting 15-20 Feet
- Aaron Baddeley
- Cameron Tringale
- Pat Perez
- Brendon Todd
- Mark Hubbard
- Brandt Snedeker
- Doc Redman
- Ryan Armour
- Patrick Rodgers
- Scott Piercy
Approach Proximity under 125 Yards
- Brandt Snedeker
- Tom Hoge
- Roger Sloan
- Matt Kuchar
- Jason Dufner
- Charles Howell III
- Cameron Tringale
- Dylan Frittelli
- Max Homa
- Webb Simpson
Click here to view in Google Sheets.
Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Statistical Analysis
- Emiliano Grillo ($8,900)
- Maverick McNealy ($8,600)
- Doug Ghim ($7,900)
- Patton Kizzire ($7,500)
- Joseph Bramlett ($7,300)
- Matthew NeSmith ($6,400)
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