Having a variety of viewpoints and data points can be both a curse and a blessing. This column will sift through all the data and top picks from the four statistical angles that make up PGA DFS. The swing season continues this week as the tour returns stateside with the Houston Open. This year the tournament is sponsored by Hewlett Packard Enterprise and will play at Memorial Park for the second straight year.
PGA DFS Data Deep Dive | The Houston Open
Recent Form
Sam Burns has been on the first page of the leaderboard for the last six months. While his major performance over that time has been abysmal, withdrawing from the PGA Championship and missing the cut at the U.S. Open, his PGA Tour starts have been possibly some of the best of anyone in the world. His last missed cut in an event was back at the Valero Texas Open back in April, and he has won twice and has two more second-place finishes since then. More recently, he has played six times over the past 12 weeks coming in the top 25 in all of them. He also has three top-10s in the same span. Sungjae Im is the only golfer whose performance has come remotely close to Burns in the last bit, and he has a win and two other top-10s in this timespan. Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Vincent Whaley and Sahith Theegala all join Im and Burns with three top-10s in that stretch.
Aaron Wise and Chad Ramey have found the top 10 as much as those others, but they join Im and Burns as the only golfers with five or more top-25s in the last 12 weeks. Lastly, Talor Gooch, Cameron Smith, Tony Finau, Marc Leishman, Mackenzie Hughes and Russell Henley have all competed at least four times and have not missed the cut.
Negative Recent Form
J.T. Poston, Hank Lebioda and Martin Trainer could not buck their recent poor form last week in Mexico, although Trainer and Lebioda both missed the cut on the number, and Poston is not far behind either. Roger Sloan, Kyle Stanley and Brice Garnett also had their recent struggles continue last week.
Click Here for the google sheet link
PGA DFS Picks Based on Recent Form
- Sam Burns ($11,100)
- Sungjae Im ($10,700)
- Aaron Wise ($9,200)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,600)
- Matthias Schwab ($7,200)
- Taylor Moore ($7,100)
Course History at Memorial Park
With only one year of history here at Memorial Park, the section below includes the full strokes gained from the event in the spreadsheet, as well as the old school statistics. Upon reviewing the stats, it seems that driving accuracy was not a factor here last year. Last year’s winner, Carlos Ortiz, only hit 50% of his fairways all week but still was able to gain strokes off the tee. Hitting the greens was key, as golfers that hit at least 70% of their greens finished better than 31st, including Ortiz. About half of the 69 golfers that played last year will tee it up again for the second time at Memorial Park.
PGA DFS Picks Based on Course History
- Brooks Koepka ($9,900)
- Carlos Ortiz ($9,100)
- Mackenzie Hughes ($7,900)
- Charley Hoffman ($7,300)
- Adam Long ($6,800)
- Sepp Straka ($6,700)
Strokes Gained
A year’s worth of data should clearly indicate where golfers excel and where they struggle. For perspective, the average number of strokes gained for each stat has been added. Each week this column will also include the most important stat for the week and the top 10 rankings based on the average strokes gained from those stats. While there are strokes gained rankings for this year, many of the stars have only competed in one or two events, so the sample size is a tad too small to present. But for comparison purposes, the old-school statistics will be presented with the new year’s data.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green
- Brooks Koepka (1.171)
- Tony Finau (1.04)
- Tyrrell Hatton (1.002)
- Shane Lowry (0.987)
- Russell Henley (0.926)
- Scottie Scheffler (0.909)
- Luke List (0.892)
- Charley Hoffman (0.864)
- Seamus Power (0.845)
- Aaron Wise (0.845)
Strokes Gained Off the Tee
- Jhonattan Vegas (0.647)
- Brooks Koepka (0.631)
- Keith Mitchell (0.57)
- Luke List (0.557)
- Joaquin Niemann (0.556)
- Sungjae Im (0.526)
- Scottie Scheffler (0.515)
- Jason Day (0.442)
- Emiliano Grillo (0.368)
- Jason Kokrak (0.845)
Strokes Gained On Approach
- Russell Henley (0.831)
- Matthew NeSmith (0.683)
- Emiliano Grillo (0.669)
- Tyrrell Hatton (0.651)
- Charley Hoffman (0.646)
- Kyle Stanley (0.55)
- Shane Lowry (0.543)
- Russell Knox (0.522)
- Chez Reavie (0.505)
- Brooks Koepka (0.482)
Strokes Gained Around the Green
- Danny Willett (0.518)
- Seamus Power (0.44)
- Patrick Reed (0.368)
- Ian Poulter (0.364)
- Brian Harman (0.334)
- Shane Lowry (0.333)
- Jason Day (0.312)
- Dylan Frittelli (0.312)
- Tony Finau (0.298)
- Wyndham Clark (0.29)
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Strokes Gained Putting
- J.T. Poston (0.706)
- Ian Poulter (0.695)
- Patrick Reed (0.669)
- Zach Johnson (0.667)
- Jason Kokrak (0.628)
- Sam Burns (0.579)
- Cameron Smith (0.573)
- Chesson Hadley (0.552)
- Mackenzie Hughes (0.483)
- Cameron Tringale (0.48)
Strokes Gained On the Green and Around the Green
- Ian Poulter (1.059)
- Patrick Reed (1.037)
- Cameron Smith (0.834)
- Zach Johnson (0.772)
- Brian Harman (0.766)
- Cameron Tringale (0.722)
- J.T. Poston (0.641)
- Seamus Power (0.608)
- Denny McCarthy (0.607)
- Mackenzie Hughes (0.591)
For the yearly strokes gained ranks, Click here.
Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Strokes Gained
- Cameron Smith ($10,200)
- Patrick Reed ($9,000)
- Cameron Tringale ($8,300)
- Ian Poulter ($7,300)
- Seamus Power ($8,400)
- Denny McCarthy ($6,600)
Old School Statistics
Greens in Regulation
- Russell Henley
- Gary Woodland
- Cameron Smith
- Mito Pereira
- Jhonattan Vegas
- Carlos Ortiz
- Aaron Wise
- Keith Mitchell
- Sam Burns
- Tony Finau
Good Drive Percentage
- Sungjae Im
- Cameron Smith
- Ian Poulter
- Brian Harman
- Sam Burns
- Kyle Stanley
- Russell Henley
- Jim Herman
- Matthias Schwab
- Taylor Moore
Around the Green Proximity
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Tony Finau
- Matthew Wolff
- Sungjae Im
- Aaron Wise
- Harold Varner III
- Gary Woodland
- Tyler Duncan
- Stephan Jaeger
- Charley Hoffman
Scrambling 10-20 yards
- Sungjae Im
- J.T. Poston
- Keith Mitchell
- Max Homa
- Kramer Hickok
- Martin Laird
- Gary Woodland
- Stephan Jaeger
- Mackenzie Hughes
- Zach Johnson
Bogey Avoidance
- Sam Burns
- Adam Scott
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Matthew Wolff
- Sungjae Im
- Jason Kokrak
- Cameron Smith
- Aaron Wise
- Talor Gooch
- Scottie Scheffler
Approach Proximity 150-175 Yards
- Shane Lowry
- Tyler McCumber
- Marc Leishman
- Jhonattan Vegas
- Cameron Smith
- Ian Poulter
- Kramer Hickok
- Jason Day
- Matthias Schwab
- Joel Dahmen
Click here to view in Google Sheets.
Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Statistical Analysis
- Scottie Scheffler ($10,900)
- Tony Finau ($10,600)
- Matthew Wolff ($10,400)
- Gary Woodland ($7,600)
- Martin Laird ($7,000)
- Keith Mitchell ($7,000)
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