Having a variety of viewpoints and data points can be both a curse and a blessing. This column will sift through all the data and top picks from the four statistical angles that make up PGA DFS. The swing season continues this week with another international event as the tour heads to the beautiful Playa del Carmen Mexico and the Mayakoba Golf Classic. This year, sponsored by World Wide Technologies, the strongest field of this tournament ever heads to the popular vacation spot for the 16th playing of the event.
PGA DFS Data Deep Dive | The Mayakoba Golf Classic
Recent Form
Justin Thomas has been winless since The Players Championship. It is one of the longest stretches without a win for Thomas since becoming a real force in the game back in 2017. Since the win in March, the form has not been as good, as he has just two top-five finishes despite only missing one cut. However, those top-fives have come in the last four starts, and he is the only golfer to finish in the top 25 in all of his last starts over the last 12 weeks. Form is trending, and Thomas likes to win in this time of year, with half of his 14 wins happening outside of the U.S. between Oct. 1 and Feb. 1.
Henrik Stenson started the year with just five made cuts in 16 appearances before finding something at the Czech Masters. He finished fourth that week and followed that up with a third-place finish the next week at the European Masters. Two made cuts and top-30s since then give him four straight made cuts.
Stephan Jaeger epitomizes the importance of ranking on the Korn Ferry Tour list, as many quality performers from that tour are not in this field due to how strong it is. He comes into the week as one of only three golfers with three top-10s over this timespan. He is joined by Vincent Whaley, who added his third last week, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout, who did not have a good weekend in Bermuda. Sixteen other names have two top-10s: Justin Rose has done it in the fewest amount of starts (twice in three appearances), while Sergio Garcia, Talor Gooch and Trey Mullinax have all added a top-25 in addition to the two top-10s.
Negative Recent Form
J.T. Poston is the only golfer in the field that has failed to make a weekend in the last 12 weeks. It seems odd for a player of his talent, and he will be looking for a rebound this week. Scott Stallings has four missed cuts over the last 12 weeks but also two top-10s and a fifth-place finish last week. Brian Stuard, Martin Trainer and Hank Lebioda will also be looking for a turnaround in Mexico, having missed at least four cuts in a row. Trainer and Lebioda have missed the last five in a row.
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PGA DFS Picks Based on Recent Form
- Justin Thomas ($11,200)
- Aaron Wise ($9,600)
- Alex Noren ($8,400)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,000)
- Stephan Jaeger ($6,800)
- Vincent Whaley ($6,700)
Course History at El Camaleon
This is a popular spot for a many of the golfers this week, as 13 of them in the field will make their seventh straight start El Camaleon. Among them, countrymates Abraham Ancer and Carlos Ortiz have two top-10s each. Pat Perez is the only one among these 13 with more than two, coming in the top 10 three times, including a win back in 2016. Charles Howell III has five top-25s, two top-10s and just one missed cut in the last six years. They are not the only ones with multiple top-10s in the last six years. However, Russel Knox and Emiliano Grillo each have three top-10s and four top-25s in just five starts. Brice Garnett has four top-25s as well but has only two top-10s in his five starts over the past six years. Lastly, Brendon Todd and Billy Horschel are the only two golfers other than Ortiz to find the top 10 in each of the last two years.
One last note on course history: There are several golfers that have made the cut in all of their appearances here since 2015; they include Joel Dahmen, Matt Kuchar, C.T. Pan, Danny Lee and Patton Kizzire.
PGA DFS Picks Based on Course History
- Abraham Ancer ($10,700)
- Billy Horschel ($10,100)
- Emiliano Grillo ($7,500)
- Russell Knox($7,300)
- Pat Perez ($7,200)
- Brice Garnett ($6,500)
Strokes Gained
A year’s worth of data should clearly indicate where golfers excel and where they struggle. For perspective, the average number of strokes gained for each stat has been added. Each week this column will also include the most important stat for the week and the top 10 rankings based on the average strokes gained from those stats. While there are strokes gained rankings for this year, many of the stars have only competed in one or two events, so the sample size is a tad too small to present. But for comparison purposes, the old-school statistics will be presented with the new year’s data.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green
- Justin Thomas (1.418)
- Keegan Bradley (1.348)
- Viktor Hovland (1.263)
- Will Zalatoris (1.184)
- Brooks Koepka (1.171)
- Sergio Garcia (1.145)
- Tony Finau (1.04)
- Tyrrell Hatton (1.002)
- Shane Lowry (0.987)
- Russell Henley (0.926)
Strokes Gained Off the Tee
- Sergio Garcia (0.796)
- Viktor Hovland (0.656)
- Jhonattan Vegas (0.647)
- Brooks Koepka (0.631)
- Keith Mitchell (0.57)
- Luke List (0.557)
- Joaquin Niemann (0.556)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (0.539)
- Scottie Scheffler (0.515)
- Charles Howell III (0.505)
Strokes Gained On Approach
- Justin Thomas (0.887)
- Keegan Bradley (0.856)
- Russell Henley (0.831)
- Will Zalatoris (0.751)
- Emiliano Grillo (0.669)
- Tyrrell Hatton (0.651)
- Viktor Hovland (0.648)
- Charley Hoffman (0.646)
- Kyle Stanley (0.55)
- Shane Lowry (0.543)
Strokes Gained Around the Green
- Danny Willett (0.518)
- Seamus Power (0.44)
- Patrick Reed (0.368)
- Ian Poulter (0.364)
- Rickie Fowler (0.343)
- Brian Harman (0.334)
- Shane Lowry (0.333)
- Dylan Frittelli (0.312)
- Camilo Villegas (0.31)
- Matt Jones (0.305)
Strokes Gained Putting
- J.T. Poston (0.706)
- Ian Poulter (0.695)
- Patrick Reed (0.669)
- Zach Johnson (0.667)
- Brendon Todd (0.62)
- Alex Noren (0.538)
- Cameron Tringale (0.48)
- Adam Hadwin (0.471)
- Denny McCarthy (0.435)
- Brian Harman (0.432)
Strokes Gained On Approach and Off the Tee
- Viktor Hovland (1.304)
- Keegan Bradley (1.183)
- Justin Thomas (1.122)
- Brooks Koepka (1.113)
- Sergio Garcia (1.075)
- Will Zalatoris (1.07)
- Emiliano Grillo (1.037)
- Charley Hoffman (0.987)
- Tyrrell Hatton (0.973)
- Jhonattan Vegas (0.904)
For the yearly strokes gained ranks, Click here.
Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Strokes Gained
- Viktor Hovland ($10,900)
- Brooks Koepka ($10,000)
- Will Zalatoris ($9,100)
- Sergio Garcia ($8,700)
- Keegan Bradley ($8,300)
- Charley Hoffman ($7,700)
Old School Statistics
Greens in Regulation
- Rickie Fowler
- Russell Henley
- Gary Woodland
- Jhonattan Vegas
- Mito Pereira
- Justin Thomas
- Will Zalatoris
- Carlos Ortiz
- Aaron Wise
- Keith Mitchell
Total Driving
- Viktor Hovland
- Justin Thomas
- Martin Laird
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Rickie Fowler
- Keith Mitchell
- Kevin Streelman
- Tony Finau
- Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra
- Kyle Stanley
Around the Green Proximity
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Tony Finau
- Matthew Wolff
- Rory Sabbatini
- Aaron Wise
- Harold Varner III
- Tyler Duncan
- Gary Woodland
- Stephan Jaeger
- Charley Hoffman
Putting 15-20 feet
- Viktor Hovland
- Martin Laird
- James Hahn
- Rickie Fowler
- Will Zalatoris
- Adam Schenk
- Davis Riley
- Hudson Swafford
- Matt Kuchar
- Scott Stallings
Par 4 Scoring 450-500 Yards
- Pat Perez
- Adam Schenk
- Andrew Landry
- Justin Rose
- James Hahn
- Rory Sabbatini
- Viktor Hovland
- Matt Kuchar
- Maverick McNealy
- Talor Gooch
Approach Proximity 150-175 Yards
- Justin Thomas
- Emiliano Grillo
- Brendan Steele
- Luke Donald
- Russell Henley
- Abraham Ancer
- Russell Knox
- C.T. Pan
- Viktor Hovland
- Chez Reavie
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Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Statistical Analysis
- Tony Finau ($10,600)
- Matthew Wolff ($9,200)
- Russel Henley ($8,200)
- Justin Rose ($7,900)
- Keith Mitchell ($6,800)
- Martin Laird ($6,500)
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