Having a variety of viewpoints and data points can be both a curse and a blessing. In this article, I sift through all the data and give you top picks from all four statistical angles that make up PGA DFS. After a week off following the Tour Championship, the swing season continues with the Sanderson Farms Championship. The Country Club of Jackson has been used since 2007, and plenty of professional golf has been played over the last 12 weeks, giving us a complete data set.
PGA DFS Picks: The Sanderson Farms Championship
Recent Form
Most of the newcomers to the PGA Tour this year will be teeing it up this week, and their results are from various tours across the professional landscape, including the Korn Ferry and European Tours. Check out the complete list Korn Ferry Tour Graduates to see who will be joining the main tour this year.
Mito Pereira continues his awe-inspiring start to his PGA Tour career, getting his fourth top-six since joining the tour 10 weeks ago. Taylor Moore is one of only two golfers with four top-10s in the last 12 weeks, but he did not get off to a great start a few weeks ago, missing the cut at the Safeway Open in his PGA Tour debut. David Skinns is the only other golfer that has four or more top-10s in the last 12 weeks, all of his finishes coming on the Korn Ferry tour.
The number of golfers with three top-10s in the last 12 weeks includes a couple of PGA Tour players: Patrick Rodgers and Seamus Power. With the breakthrough win 10 weeks ago, Power has been able to make the cut in his two appearances since then but has not found the upside that was there over two months ago. Sungjae Im has found a spot of form as the only golfer in the field to come in the top 25 seven times over the last 12 weeks, but he has only cracked the top 10 twice. Odds favorite Sam Burns also has a similar record over the last 12 weeks, coming in the top 25 six times and the top 10 twice. Neither has missed the cut over the time span as well. Corey Conners, Harold Varner, Chad Ramey and Taylor Pendrith join Burns, Im and Rodgers as the only golfers to have six or more top-25s over the past 12 weeks.
Lastly, Sergio Garcia is the only golfer coming into the week off of back-to-back top-10s. Those occurred a few starts ago over the playoffs.
Negative Recent Form
It did not get any better for Martin Trainer or Kevin Stadler a few weeks ago in the desert, as both missed the cut for the fifth time in the 12 weeks. Only Austin Cook, Trey Mullinax and Cameron Young have as many missed cuts over the same time period. Emiliano Grillo, Gary Woodland, C.T. Pan, Gary Woodland, Joseph Bramlett and Brendon Todd are some of the more prominent names that have at least three missed cuts in this dataset.
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PGA DFS Picks Based on Recent Form
- Sam Burns ($11,000)
- Sungjae Im ($10,300)
- Mito Pereira ($9,900)
- Harold Varner ($9,200)
- Patrick Rodgers ($7,600)
Course History
The one thing that has been constant here at the Country Club of Jackson is the winning score — around 19 under every year. But what has not been constant is the form of the golfers competing here. Played as one of the first events of the year, many new faces make their way to Mississippi, and the stars do not often come around. So the form at the tournament does not have too many standouts, as only five golfers have multiple top-10s here since 2015, and only Denny McCarthy, Kevin Streelman, Peter Malnati, Patton Kizzire and Carlos Ortiz have two. They all have at least one missed cut as well. Sebastian Munoz, who came in dead last a few weeks ago in Napa, has made the cut in all four appearances but has only one top-10 — a win in 2019. Charley Hoffman has only teed it up in the last two showings of the event, coming in 23rd in 2019 and sixth last year.
Negative
Austin Cook and Brendon Todd have not been as successful as those others, missing the cut at least four times. Todd has not earned a paycheck in any of his four starts here, the only golfer with at least that many starts to not play the weekend.
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Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Course History
- Sergio Garcia ($10,500)
- Sebastian Munoz ($9,300)
- Charley Hoffman ($8,900)
- Carlos Ortiz ($8,600)
- Denny McCarthy ($6,600)
Strokes Gained
A year’s worth of data should clearly indicate where golfers excel and where they struggle. For perspective, the average number of strokes gained for each stat has been added. Each week this column will also include the most important stat for the week and the top 10 rankings based on the average strokes gained from those stats.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green
- Keegan Bradley (1.348)
- Will Zalatoris (1.184)
- Corey Conners (1.15)
- Sergio Garcia (1.145)
- Doug Ghim (0.909)
- Luke List (0.892)
- Charley Hoffman (0.864)
- Seamus Power (0.845)
- Aaron Wise (0.845)
- Harold Varner III (0.792)
- Matt Wallace (0.763)
Strokes Gained Off the Tee
- Sergio Garcia (0.796)
- Corey Conners (0.625)
- Keith Mitchell (0.57)
- Luke List (0.557)
- Sungjae Im (0.526)
- Emiliano Grillo (0.368)
- Charley Hoffman (0.341)
- Brandon Hagy (0.33)
- Keegan Bradley (0.327)
- Will Zalatoris (0.319)
Strokes Gained on Approach
- Keegan Bradley (0.856)
- Will Zalatoris (0.751)
- Corey Conners (0.698)
- Matthew NeSmith (0.683)
- Emiliano Grillo (0.669)
- Charley Hoffman (0.646)
- Russell Knox (0.522)
- Doug Ghim (0.516)
- Chez Reavie (0.505)
- Harold Varner III (0.47)
Strokes Gained Around the Green
- Si Woo Kim (0.467)
- Seamus Power (0.44)
- Dylan Frittelli (0.312)
- Camilo Villegas (0.31)
- Wyndham Clark (0.29)
- Chris Kirk (0.269)
- Cameron Tringale (0.242)
- Nate Lashley (0.241)
- Bill Haas (0.24)
- Aaron Wise (0.239)
Strokes Gained Putting
- J.T. Poston (0.706)
- Zach Johnson (0.667)
- Brendon Todd (0.62)
- Sam Burns (0.579)
- Chesson Hadley (0.552)
- Mackenzie Hughes (0.483)
- Cameron Tringale (0.48)
- Adam Hadwin (0.471)
- Denny McCarthy (0.435)
- Patton Kizzire (0.432)
Strokes Gained Putting and Off the Tee
- Sam Burns (0.836)
- Sungjae Im (0.818)
- Charley Hoffman (0.671)
- Corey Conners (0.617)
- J.T. Poston (0.575)
- Brice Garnett (0.557)
- Keith Mitchell (0.513)
- Cameron Tringale (0.474)
- Zach Johnson (0.452)
- Adam Hadwin (0.429)
For the yearly strokes gained ranks, Click here.
Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Strokes Gained
- Corey Conners ($10,100)
- Cameron Tringale ($9,500)
- Cam Davis ($9,100)
- Matthew Wolff ($8,400)
- Keith Mitchell ($7,800)
Old School Statistics
Golfers hit fairways around 53% of the time, and scores are considerably low, so it seems the rough is not penal at this course. Favor distance over accuracy, and add in approach from 150 175 yards, where the bulk of the approach shots will come from this week.
Greens in Regulation
- Matthew NeSmith
- Keegan Bradley
- Emiliano Grillo
- Sergio Garcia
- Will Zalatoris
- Joseph Bramlett
- Seamus Power
- Adam Schenk
- Sungjae Im
- Aaron Wise
Proximity
- Emiliano Grillo
- Chez Reavie
- Doug Ghim
- Russell Knox
- Brian Stuard
- Joel Dahmen
- Chris Kirk
- Ryan Armour
- Corey Conners
- Charley Hoffman
Driving Distance
- Matthew Wolff
- Sergio Garcia
- Brandon Hagy
- Keith Mitchell
- Wyndham Clark
- Joseph Bramlett
- Luke List
- Dylan Frittelli
- Patrick Rodgers
- Carlos Ortiz
Birdie or Better
- Sam Burns
- Patton Kizzire
- Charley Hoffman
- Aaron Wise
- Emiliano Grillo
- Sungjae Im
- Anirban Lahiri
- Cameron Tringale
- Doug Ghim
- Sergio Garcia
Approach Proximity 125-150
- Nick Taylor
- Corey Conners
- Chez Reavie
- Camilo Villegas
- Seamus Power
- Chris Kirk
- Si Woo Kim
- Emiliano Grillo
- Doug Ghim
- Henrik Norlander
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Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Statistical Analysis
- Emiliano Grillo ($8,900)
- Seamus Power ($8,800)
- Kevin Streelman ($8,600)
- Aaron Wise ($8,300)
- Doug Ghim ($8,000)
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