DFS Golf Picks This Week: The Memorial 2022 DraftKings Value Plays

After a brief stop in Texas, the PGA Tour moves back to the Midwest for a stop at Muirfield Village. The venue has hosted the Memorial Tournament ever since the event’s inception in 1976. Muirfield Village is a Jack Nicklaus design that plays as a long-ish par 72 that was designed, at least in spirit, to be somewhat similar to Augusta National. It measures in at around 7,533 yards, and recent renovations allow the course to stretch past 7,600 if needed. Like many of the tougher venues on tour (Bay Hill, Riviera, Torrey Pines), the main scoring holes at Muirfield Village are the four par 5’s, which all offer good birdie opportunities. As always, we’ll look for the top-scoring players for DFS golf lineups, so analyzing all of the data available and projections on Awesemo is of utmost importance in making the best daily fantasy golf picks for DraftKings and FanDuel.

DFS Golf Rankings & Expert Picks | The Memorial Tournament 2022

The last three seasons have seen both Patrick Cantlay and Jon Rahm dominate, with Rahm also notoriously having to drop out of the event last year after contracting COVID-19 prior to the final round (when he had a multiple-shot lead). The field this year has 32 of the world’s top 50 players, and winners of late have tended to be some of the best in class. Nailing the top of the board will be critical this week in DFS.

Muirfield Village Stats and Info

Course plays at 7,533 yards after renovations; greens were “reconstructed,” new tee boxes were introduced, and 140 trees were planted. The course is now 100 yards longer.
Approach and around-the-green play are likely the most important strokes gained to look at; since 2018 only one top-five finisher has lost strokes around the greens for the week.
Classic championship course that features easier-to-hit fairways (field averages close to 70% driving accuracy some seasons) but harder-to-hit greens, a la Augusta.

Latest PGA DFS Content

Memorial 2022 DFS Golf Picks & Fantasy Golf Rankings

Rory McIlroy: Grades: A+, Values: C, B

It is very tight at the top of the projections this week, with the top-two salaried players on DraftKings grading out very similarly. The value score on Rory McIlroy is slightly better than that Jon Rahm’s, and McIlroy’s recent form is better. The failure of McIlroy to convert his good play of late into major wins has been very remarked upon, but that’s also masked what has been a great stretch for him in general, with three finishes of eighth or better since Augusta.

Over his career at Muirfield Village, McIlroy has landed top-10s on more than one occasion and should feel good about his chances for a good week on the greens, as he’s gained over three strokes putting at Muirfield in each of his last two visits. The short game will need to take a step up for McIlroy if he is going to breakthrough, but he still ranks top 25 in strokes gained around the greens over the last 50 rounds and has been in good form in that regard most of the year. He’ll be a popular play on FanDuel this week, but starting with him on both sites (and looking for more contrarian moves elsewhere) is a good way to begin lineups. The breakthrough is coming soon, and this is a title he’d certainly like to add before long.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 18.8% | FanDuel: 32.2%

The Stats:

Fourth in strokes gained off the tee and tee to green over the last 50 rounds.
Second in DraftKings points over the last 50 rounds; has finished 32nd and 18th the Muirfield in his last two visits with massively positive putting splits in both of those starts.

Viktor Hovland : Grades: A, Values: B

Viktor Hovland was one of the main picks in this article last week, and even though he performed better than much of the higher-end players (RIP Justin Thomas), there still seemed like there was more on the table for him. He gained strokes everywhere but around the greens last week, and the fact he was able to get going with the putter, gaining four strokes on the fast bentgrass greens at Colonial, should lend confidence to his chances at Muirfield Village, which features similarly slick putting surfaces.

Hovland’s true strength is in his long game, though, and he’s handled tougher tests extremely well this year, landing fourth- and second-place finishes at Bay Hill and Riviera. If a breakout win for Hovland is coming, this would certainly be a good place for it to happen, and Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau have accomplished the same feats in recent years. Hovland has nearly as good of value splits as Shane Lowry (who is near his price) but does topple Lowry slightly in the overall PGA projections on Awesemo this week. The upside just seems better with Hovland, though, as he feels like he could go for a higher finishing position after getting another good start under him in Texas.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 26.9% | FanDuel: 26.0%

The Stats:

Second in strokes gained approaches over the last 24 rounds and second in proximity from 175 to 200 yards over that same span.
Has not lost strokes on approach in his last seven PGA Tour starts and has gained two strokes or more putting in four of his last six starts.

Low-Owned Daily Fantasy Golf GPP Flier

Daniel Berger ($8,500)

There are plenty of reasons not to like Daniel Berger this week, which is why he makes for such a tantalizing GPP target in the mid-$8,000 range on DraftKings. The poor missed cut at the PGA Championship is still fresh in people’s minds, and his 23rd-place finish from last week went mostly unnoticed. Daily fantasy players will also hate the course history he brings at Muirfield, which shows two missed cuts and a 67th-place finish.

This might not be an ideal setup for Berger, but he’s good enough to overcome it and certainly played well last week, outside of some poor putting. Berger has gained over a stroke around the greens in multiple starts and his approach game was reliable as ever at Colonial, giving him a lot of the traits necessary for top plays. It won’t feel great, but there are plenty of non-Berger players in the $8,000 range who will be popular this week, and using Berger over one or all of them will be a great way to gain some leverage on the field.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 7.0%

Top 3 Under 5% in DraftKings Fantasy Golf This Week

This section will target players that should end up under or close to 5% ownership in larger DraftKings Golf GPPs. These picks are boom/bust PGA DFS players with an almost 100% focus on the upside.

Anirban Lahiri ($7,200)

The low-$7,000 range on DraftKings this week feels like a big dead zone, but there will be lots of lower ownership to be had on the players there. Lahiri has good course chemistry with Muirfield Village, having finished second at this event in 2017 and making the cut in each of his four appearances at the event. He’s playing great golf this year and should be well under 5% rostered in most contests.

Patrick Rodgers ($6,800)

Rodgers is always an adventure, but he’s also displayed more trustworthy traits of late. His ball striking has been good (for him), and he’s gained over a stroke off the tee in each of his last three starts. Rodgers has dominated these Muirfield greens in the past and can get there for a big week if his putter gets even remotely hot.

Kurt Kitayama ($6,300)

With only 120 men in the field, going mega stars and scrubs makes some sense. Kitayama has shown he can hang in tough fields and has made the cut in three of his last four starts while displaying solid off-tee play. He’ll be extremely low owned but looks like the best upside play among the sub-$6,500 plays on DraftKings.

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