The 2022 PGA season concludes this week with the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club (par 70, 7,346 yards, Bermuda greens) in Atlanta, Georgia. For the fourth year in a row, the Tour Championship will be using a staggered scoring system, with each player assigned a score to begin the event based on where they sit in the FedEx Cup standings. Every player’s starting position can be viewed via this link. Below are some of the top PGA DFS picks for the Tour Championship, according to Stokastic’s Top Golfers Tool.
PGA DFS GPP Picks: The Tour Championship
East Lake is a challenging, parkland course that favors elite ball strikers and par-4 players. Regardless of starting position, the last five golfers to finish with the best overall score at the Tour Championship have ranked inside the top seven in strokes gained tee to green for the week. Furthermore, all five of these players either led their field or finished second in par-4 efficiency. Finally, with a difficult test of golf awaiting, DFS players should put heavy weight on bogey avoidance, with four of the past five winners leading their fields in that category.
***Leverage scores are a product of comparing a player’s ownership versus their salary-weighted odds to finish in the top six of the tournament.***
Sam Burns
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 8th, FanDuel: 7th
Burns has had an incredible season, winning three times, two of which have come at courses with Bermuda greens. In fact, Burns has eight top-20 finishes in 10 tries on Bermuda this season and ranks first in total strokes gained over the last 50 rounds on that surface. On top of being arguably the best Bermuda player in the field, Burns ranks inside the top 30 in strokes gained tee to green, strokes gained on approach, par-4 performance and bogey avoidance this season.
He will begin the Tour Championship in the fourth-best position at -5, but he is the seventh-most expensive option on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Additionally, Burns projects for less than 20% ownership on both sites, according to Stokastic’s Top Golfers Tool, which is extremely appetizing for this small of a field. He is a strong investment for a top-five finish.
Hideki Matsuyama
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 9th, FanDuel: 14th
After withdrawing from the FedEx St. Jude Championship with a neck injury and then posting an unmemorable 35th at the BMW Championship, Matsuyama is guaranteed to be one of the least rostered golfers at the Tour Championship. Yes, his recent injury is worrisome, but the reward heavily outweighs the risk. There is no cut to worry about this week, and he is extremely underpriced if he is able to regain his form at East Lake. Matsuyama ranks inside the top 16 in strokes gained tee to green, par-4 performance and bogey avoidance this season and has three top-10 finishes in his last six attempts at the Tour Championship.
Cameron Young
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 7th, FanDuel: 1st
Young has no history at East Lake, but he fits this course like a glove and will open this event with a three-shot advantage. He has had a stellar season ball striking, ranking 14th in strokes gained tee to green, and he has been one of the best par-4 players on the Tour, ranking fourth in par-4 performance. As of late, Young has been on the verge of winning his first ever PGA Tour title, with five top-three finishes in his last 10 starts. Of these top-three finishes, two came at venues with Bermuda greens and one came at Detroit Golf Club, another Ross design.
With Young expected to see sub-20% ownership levels on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to Stokastic’s Top Golfers Tool, he is one of the best leverage targets for this playoff finale.
K.H. Lee
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 3rd, FanDuel: 5th
Lee is another player that shouldn’t gain much attention this week given this will be his debut at East Lake. In his first appearance at the BMW Championship this past week, Lee finished fifth and carded a 6-under 65 on Sunday. Not only did this number tie Viktor Hovland for the lowest score of the final round, but it was only one stroke away from tying for the lowest score of the entire tournament. For the week, Lee ranked fourth in par-4 efficiency and seventh in bogey avoidance at Wilmington. This was also the second start in a row that he gained strokes in every major category except around the greens. Lee showed last week he can contend in world-class fields, and while starting this week at even par isn’t ideal, he should still effortlessly outproduce his inexpensive salaries.
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