The Winning Element: PGA DFS Picks for The U.S. Open 2022

The third major championship of the year is here as the most diverse field in all of the majors is here in Brookline, Mass., to compete at The Country Club for the 122nd U.S. Open. The course itself should serve to provide an incredibly fun tournament with an excited and unique viewing experience. With the biggest PGA DFS prizes of the year available this week and the vast array of betting options, this article will cover all of my personal golf betting picks and DFS exposures/allocations, as well as a guide to all of the best PGA DFS picks for the U.S. Open 2022.

PGA DFS & Golf Betting Picks: U.S. Open 2022

Major championships always brings out all of the best golfers, including my favorite trio of Jordan Spieth ($9,500), Patrick Cantlay ($9,200) and Collin Morikawa ($10,000). The latter of the three has been struggling the most, not really clicking all that much with his irons and his putter had been ice cold. However, there seemed to be a little more confidence in Morikawa’s stroke during his last outing at the Memorial, but not enough to get him to the weekend. Cantlay is coming off a great performance at a course that’s well suited to him but was clearly not his best yet, as he struggled with his irons a bit still.

Then there’s Spieth, who didn’t look crisp with his irons at Memorial, but his putter seems to be back in play. His off-tee game has been fine this year, and he should be able to turn up his around-the-green game to major championship level this week, which should keep him close to the lead. If he struggles with anything, it’s hitting fairways, and this week it’ll be a problem for everyone. Spieth will be in the top five of my allocation this week, while Morikawa and Cantlay slide in the back half of the top 10.

PGA Weather Forecast

Winds are expected to be highest Thursday, or at least they will have the biggest discrepancy of the two waves. The p.m./a.m. wave will face about 15 mph Thursday afternoon, compared to 9 from the morning wave. Then those same golfers will face an average of 12 mph Friday morning versus 15 mph Friday afternoon. Check out the PGA Weather Splits tool to determine who will benefit most from this.

PGA DFS Slate & Golf Betting Preview

Total Expected Team Pool: 78

Expected Number of Lineups Created: 300+

Total of Main Outright & Each Way Bets: 8

Total Longshots 100-1 or Greater: 0

Total Bombs 200-1 or Greater: 0

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The U.S. Open 2022 Fantasy Golf Picks & Projections

These golfers will have anywhere between 20% and 50% allocation.

There’s the old saying in PGA DFS that the chalk is chalk for a reason. While there are plenty of chances to get golfers under 10% or even 5% owned this week, the last nine major championships all featured at least two golfers owned over 15%. So here’s how my allocation to the top golfers is falling this week, with none of the top nine under 13% owned:

1. Rory McIlroy ($10,500)
2. Will Zalatoris ($9,300) (Outright and e/w 26/1)
3. Justin Thomas ($10,900)
4. Xander Schauffele ($9,600)
5. Jon Rahm ($10,800)
6. Scottie Scheffler ($11,300)
7. Cameron Smith ($10,200)
8. Hideki Matsuyama ($9,100)
9. Shane Lowry ($9,000)
10. Viktor Hovland ($9,700)
11. Dustin Johnson ($9,400)

Fantasy Golf Picks & Golf Betting Longshots

Make sure to check out OddsShopper to get the best golf betting odds this week.

Joaquin Niemann

$8,900 DraftKings/$10,100 FanDuel | 35-1 (DraftKings) + Each Way

When the salaries start to head into value range, especially the $8,000 in DraftKings, the focus shifts slightly from “can this golfer win the tournament” to “can the golfer be involved in the tournament.” Niemann has done nothing but get involved in tournaments this year, only missing one cut the week after the biggest win of his young career at the Genesis Invitational. Other than that missed cut at the Honda, his worst finish is 35th, and he is coming in off a third-place finish at the Memorial. Niemann has fixed the worst statistical part of his game last year — around the green — and has turned that into a weapon this year. If that trend continues, he could be in line for a major championship victory soon enough.

Max Homa

$8,100 DraftKings/$9,900 FanDuel | 45-1 (DraftKings) + Each Way

There is a very crowded range of golfers here in the low $8,000s, with Tony Finau ($8,200) also being a big part of many lineups this week. Homa’s play in majors hasn’t quite gotten to Finau’s level yet, but everything about his game is trending in the right direction. His putter is peaking, and his tee to green has looked solid all year. This should be a great chance for him to pick up his first top-10 in a major, while Finau should be able to continue his major success here this week. Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,500) and Sam Burns ($8,300) also show up in this range but don’t earn as big of an allocation as the other two, leaving me underweight the latter two.

Aaron Wise

$7,800 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel | 80-1 (DraftKings) + Each Way

Wise has been a big part of my player pool this year, and he’s playing great golf. There is no need to give up on that now, especially as his putter looks to be rounding into form. He’s a bit overpriced on DraftKings, and based on the odds of those priced around him, his salary is more favorable on FanDuel.

Mito Pereira

$7,800 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel | 65-1 (FanDuel) + Each Way

Runs of form happen to golfers consistently, at least those on the cusp of the top of the world rankings. Pereira did something very similar over the Olympics/last summer, where he came in fourth and had a stretch of about five weeks where he was on the first page of the leaderboard every week. He seems to be in the midst of one of those again.

Tommy Fleetwood

$7,700 DraftKings/$9,600 FanDuel | 65-1 (DraftKings) + Each Way

As mentioned above with Niemann, going down to this price range now turns the focus into quality golf versus “can this golfer win.” Fleetwood hasn’t found the winner’s circle in a while but also hasn’t missed a weekend in quite some time. Oddly enough, the last time he missed the weekend was at the same event Niemann did, the Honda Classic, where they both missed it on the number. Since then, Fleetwood has racked up seven top-22s and three top-10s over nine events.

Sungjae Im

$7,600 DraftKings/$9,800 FanDuel | 40-1 (PointsBet) + Each Way

Trending on being one of the most popular picks of the week, Im’s value is undeniable. A brief COVID stint kept him out of the year’s second major championship but didn’t take away his form. Since his two starts from returning, he’s come in 15th and 10th and is working off an eighth-place finish at the Masters. In lineups with Im, diversifying with lower-owned studs like Morikawa or Viktor Hovland should provide enough variance and avoid a duplicated lineup. Given his 30% projected ownership, I’ll give him a few more $100 lineups and fewer $15 lineups to fight the ownership against a larger number of entries.

PGA DFS Chalk Zone (Projected for 10%+ Ownership)

E = Equal-Weight to projected ownership
U = Underweight to projected ownership
O = Overweight to projected ownership

1. Cameron Young (E)
2. Corey Conners (E to U)
3. Keegan Bradley (E to U)
4. Harold Varner (E to U)
5. Davis Riley (E to U)
6. Russel Henley (E)
7. Justin Rose (E to U)

Fringe PGA DFS Picks (12-17% of Lineups)

1. Billy Horschel
2. Daniel Berger

Alternates (6-11% of Lineups)

1. Brooks Koepka
2. Tyrrell Hatton
3. Louis Oosthuizen
4. Abraham Ancer
5. Talor Gooch
6. Webb Simpson
7. Sebastian Munoz
8. Tom Hoge
9. Patrick Reed
10. Jason Kokrak
11. Adam Scott
12. Marc Leishman
13. Sepp Straka
14. Gary woodland
15. Si Woo Kim
16. Brian Harman
17. Luke List
18. Alex Noren
19. Patrick Rodgers
20. Francesco Molinari
21. Victor Perez
22. Lucas Herbert
23. Mackenzie Hughes
24. Ryan Fox
25. Chase Seiffert

Holes in One (1-5% of Lineups)

1. Bryson DeChambeau
2. Seamus Power
3. Sergio Garcia
4. Cameron Tringale
5. K.H. Lee
6. Lanto Griffin
7. Troy Merritt
8. Adam Schenk
9. Erik Van Rooyen
10. Thomas Pieters
11. Phil Mickelson
12. Adam Hadwin
13. Matthew NeSmith
14. Branden Grace
15. Andrew Putnam
16. Kevin Kisner
17. Adri Arnaus
18. Denny McCarthy
19. Danny Lee
20. Kurt Kitayama
21. Kevin Chappell
22. Sam Horsfield
23. Joel Dahmen
24. Beau Hossler

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