PGA DFS Picks Arnold Palmer Invitational: Jordan Spieth & Ball Striking

Continuing with the Florida swing, the PGA Tour is hosting the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club (par 72, 7,466 yards, Bermuda greens) in Orlando this week. It has been the lone home of this event since 1979, and Scottie Scheffler won last season at -5. As an invitational, this tournament features a limited field of only 120 players, and there will be a standard cut of top 65 and ties following the first 36 holes. Below are some of the top PGA DFS picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, utilizing Stokastic’s Top Golfers Tool to find the best leverage plays for GPPs.

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PGA DFS Picks & Leverage: Arnold Palmer Invitational

With narrow fairways, penalizing rough and plenty of hazards, Bay Hill is one of the most difficult courses on the annual PGA Tour schedule. To succeed at this challenging track, you need to be a premier ball striker and par-5 player. For back-to-back seasons, the player to win the Arnold Palmer has finished the event top-10 in both strokes gained on approach and par-5 efficiency. Also, given the difficulty of Bay Hill, prioritizing players who have been avoiding the large numbers on their scorecards as of late is a sharp strategy. Notably, three of the past five Arnold Palmer champions have led their fields in bogeys avoided.

Leverage scores are a product of comparing a player’s ownership versus their salary-weighted odds to finish in the top 6 of the tournament.

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Jordan Spieth

Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 1st, FanDuel: 6th

Coming off a missed cut at the Genesis, Spieth is projecting for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week, making him one of the best GPP plays on the board. While Spieth went home early from Riviera two weeks ago, he missed the cut by one stroke and still gained strokes tee to green and on approach. Before this, Spieth was in the mix for a win at the Phoenix Open, finishing sixth. He dominated at TPC Scottsdale that week, placing third and second in strokes gained tee to green and strokes gained on approach, respectively.

In this type of form as a ball striker, Spieth brings top-5 upside at Bay Hill and is vastly underpriced on both DraftKings and FanDuel. In his lone appearance at Bay Hill back in 2021, Spieth finished fourth.

Danny Willett

Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 5th, FanDuel: 55th

Willett is fresh off a 29th at the Honda Classic in which he gained strokes in every major category, outside off the tee. He has now made seven of his past 10 cuts worldwide, with four of these finishes being top-30s. Willett has moved himself up 51 spots in the official world golf rankings with this run and now returns to Bay Hill, where he has made five of six cuts, including four finishes of 31st or better.

Willett should beat his cheap salaries with ease this week and needs to be included in GPPs, with Stokastic forecasting him for minimal ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Byeong Hun An

Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 4th, FanDuel: 15th

An is a terrific, inexpensive option this week. He finished 21st at the Honda Classic last week, marking his fifth made cut in a row. During this stretch, An has gained strokes on approach at every event and has shot even par or better in 16 of his 20 rounds. On top of his compelling current form, An has made six straight cuts at Bay Hill, most notably with a 10th in 2019. For both DraftKings and FanDuel, he is projected to be less than 5% owned, according to Stokastic’s projections.

Taylor Moore

Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 7th, FanDuel: 17th

This is a superb time to buy low on Moore. He is coming off a missed cut at the Genesis but only missed the weekend by one shot at Riviera. Prior to this, Moore was playing exceptional golf, finishing 11th, 15th and 14th, in that order. He gained strokes from tee to green and on approach at all three of these tournaments and posted a respectable 42nd-place finish in his Arnold Palmer debut last season.

Slated for essentially no ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections, Moore is an elite flier for GPPs that has the potential for a top-30 finish this weekend.