PGA DFS is filled with tons of useful information, but at times it can be overwhelming. The Awesemo daily fantasy golf team created a format to provide one condensed article that will analyze the four most important statistics for daily fantasy golf. This statistical overview will focus on recent form, course history, strokes gained and old-school statistics. I will provide notes and a data sheet to help with your PGA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel contests in each category. This week the focus is on The RBC Heritage.
PGA DFS Picks: The RBC Heritage
There is only one golfer in the field this week that hasn’t competed in the last 10 on a professional golf circuit, and that’s Tommy Gibson. The average number of times a golfer has competed in these 11 weeks is 6.252, and only one has competed in 10 of the 11 weeks: Patrick Rodgers.
At Augusta, Corey Conners and Will Zalatoris added their third top-10s in the last 11 weeks, but that still falls one short of Paul Casey (projected for 70.1 points this week) , who has three top-10s in the last 11 weeks. Matthew Fitzpatrick (projected for 71.7 points), Sergio Garcia, Andrew Putnam, Rafael Campos and Charley Hoffman also check in with three.
Both Zalatoris and Fitzpatrick have secured a top-25 in 78% or more of their starts in this dataset, the best among all the golfers. Tyrrell Hatton also checks in here, coming in the top 25 five times in his last seven appearances. Abraham Ancer, Sungjae Im, Emiliano Grillo, Lee Westwood, Chris Kirk and Cameron Smith all have four top-25s, joining many of the golfers already mentioned with at least four top-25s in the last 11 weeks.
Heading to Hilton Head looking for a change in fortunes will be Austin Cook, Hunter Mahan and Peter Malnati, all of whom have missed at least six straight cuts. Cook and Mahan have seven straight missed cuts.
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Course History at Harbour Town Golf Links
Since its inception, the RBC Heritage has always been played at the famed Harbour Town Golf Links. Finding golfers that haven’t played here is rather difficult, but this week there are 11 golfers making their first start. Some are rather big names as well, including Zalatoris, Doug Ghim, Cameron Davis, Robert MacIntyre, Casey and Westwood.
Patrick Cantlay (projected to score 73.4 points this week) and Matt Kuchar have performed admirably at Harbour Town over the past six years, and both got to the island a little earlier than expected after missing the cut at The Masters last week. Cantlay is 3-for-3 in coming in the top 10 here, while Kuchar has six straight made cuts and three top-10s. They are the only two in the field with more than two top-10s.
This articles measures consistency by top-25 finishes, and no one has more than Kuchar and Ian Poulter, who each have five. Webb Simpson has four. Kevin Kisner, Michael Thompson, Rory Sabbatini and Russell Knox are the only other golfers with at least three top-25s at Harbour Town in the last six years.
Jim Furyk, Charles Howell, Russell Henley, Danny Willett, Harold Varner and Conners have all missed at least three cuts at Harbour Town since 2015.
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This week there are no bomb-and-putt options this week, as Harbour Town plays to a more target-friendly approach. With native areas waiting just outside the fairways, there really aren’t many options to hit driver off the tee. Thus gamers should be focusing on golfers that keep the ball in play (good drive percentage) and golfers with superb iron play. These next two sections will profile a few golfers that seem like good statistical fits this week.
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Strokes Gained Tee to Green
Collin Morikawa (projected to score 71.0 points this week) (3), Zalatoris (4), Dustin Johnson (6), Cantlay (8), Garcia (10), Conners (11)
Strokes Gained Off Tee
Garcia (3), Im (6), Luke List (7), Conners (10), Grillo (12), Davis (13)
Strokes Gained On Approach
Morikawa (1), Matt Wallace (4), Zalatoris (5), Henley (6), Matthew NeSmith (8), Chez Reavie (9), Hatton (10)
Strokes Gained Around Green
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (1), Kevin Na (3), Byeong Hun An (4), Adam Hadwin (5), Dylan Frittelli (6), Cantlay (7), Webb Simpson (8)
Strokes Gained Putting
Brendon Todd (4), (J.T. Poston(projected to score 54.2 points this week) (5), Zach Johnson (10), Mackenzie Hughes (12), Simpson (13)
For the yearly strokes gained ranks, Click here.
Old School Statistics for PGA DFS Analysis
Keeping the ball in play and elite iron games have been the winning formula at Harbour Town for the past few years. Just look at past winners like Simpson, C.T. Pan and Satoshi Kodaira. None of them are even ranked inside the top 150 in driving distance, showcasing brute force cannot overtake this golf course. Let’s focus on stats that aren’t driving distance this week for the first time in a while.
Furyk (1), Ryan Armour (2), Todd (5), Reavie (8), Kuchar (10)
Good Drive Percentage
Furyk (1), Cantlay (4), Todd (11), Reavie (14), Casey (15)
Greens In Regulation
Cantlay (2), Furyk (3), Conners (4), Hadwin (7), Casey (11), Simpson (13)
Scrambling 10-20 Yards
Kirk (3), Simpson (3), Steve Striker (5), Harris English (6), An (7), Bezuidenhout (7)
Putting Outside 15-20 feet
Malnati (1), Anirban Lahiri (2), Maverick McNealy (9), Putnam (10), Simpson (15)
Click here to view in Google Sheets.
Data-Driven PGA DFS Picks for The RBC Heritage
That was a lot of information to digest. At the end of each weekly article, I will provide some of the names that appear with positive data in at least two of the four. These should make for good PGA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel.
- Webb Simpson
- Corey Conners
- Paul Casey
- Patrick Cantlay
- Chris Kirk
- Emiliano Grillo
Looking for more fantasy golf and PGA DFS picks content for the RBC Heritage? We have loads of PGA DFS picks and fantasy golf articles, data, cheat sheets, and more for DraftKings and FanDuel on the Awesemo PGA home page. Just click HERE.
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