While the PGA Tour’s season concluded last week in Atlanta, the European Tour takes center stage in the golfing world. The BMW PGA Championship is one of the premier events on the European Tour, and it has a top-notch field and PGA DFS prizes. This article will feature the following:
- Course Intro & Preview
- How you can watch the event: Viewing Schedule
- Expected Weather
- Top PGA DFS Picks and Bets
- Recent Form Picks
- Course History Picks
The Course: Wentworth Club
The famed Wentworth Club has been around since 1922 and host of this tournament since the mid-1980s. It has gone through a couple of changes of the 30-plus years it has been host, including the most recent renovation by Ernie Els. His rendition put the course at a par 72 measuring about 7,300 yards. A tad long for a course in this area, it has featured plenty of winners that can bomb the ball, including Rory McIlroy, Byeong Hun An and Angel Cabrera. But plenty of shorter hitters have also been able to find the winner circle at Wentworth Club, including Luke Donald and Francesco Molinari.
The course is located on one of the most expensive private estates in the suburbs of London and winds perfectly throughout the estate. With rolling links as its backdrop and some London forest mixed in, the course is always in mint condition when the BMW comes around.
The par 5’s are reachable, which has led to 20 under or better being the winning score twice in the last six years; only once was it in single digits. With hotter weather coming in, there should be good scoring conditions and a target winning score of at least -17.
Viewing Schedule
Golf Channel: 7 a.m.-1 p.m. ET, Thursday – Sunday
Weather
Temperatures will be decent with not a lot of wind expected over the first two days.
PGA DFS & Betting Picks for the BMW PGA Championship
Fantasy Golf Lineup Construction
Typically Euro DFS can get very chalky quickly, with few household names to choose from. But with 25 of the world’s top 100 golfers here to compete, there should be a plethora of recognizable names to choose from. That should make lineup construction rather easy this week; with ownership being rather spread out, total lineup ownership or duplication should not be in play this week.
Total Golfers: 60
Top PGA DFS & Golf Betting Picks This Week
All odds are from BetMGM.
Viktor Hovland ($11,300 DraftKings, 8-1 Outright)
Outside of the debacle and breaking his putter during the FedEx Cup Playoffs, Hovland has been very good lately. Dating back to his win 11 weeks ago on the European Tour, Hovland has added four top-17s in just six starts. While that is not a ton of upside for a golfer at $11,300, he provides a sense of stability in the lineup versus some of the golfers priced near him. He came in 11th here in 2019.
Tommy Fleetwood ($10,100 DraftKings, 20-1 Outright)
Fleetwood has endured an off year, failing to qualify for the PGA Tour’s playoffs, and now he will have to rely on special exemptions to get his starts next year. However, within that bad stretch of golf, He has been able to earn himself a paycheck by making the cut nine straight events. In European Tour events, just getting 6 of 6 through the cutline gives one a shot to win the big GPP this week. Lastly, Fleetwood has two top-13s here since 2015 in five trips.
Alex Noren ($9,600 DraftKings, 20-1 Outright)
Noren’s back-to-back top-10 runs through the FedEx Cup playoffs was not quite good enough to get him to East Lake, with Erik van Rooyen getting the job done instead, but Noren’s play should not go unnoticed. Noren had a bounce-back year, and he come in the top 10 three times over the last six years. Only Francesco Molinari has been able to do that. Good form and good history make Noren an easy add to the PGA DFS roster or betting card this week.
Guido Migliozzi ($8,600 DraftKings, 66-1 Outright)
After being a big part of the conversation on Sunday at the U.S. Open, some thought Migliozzi could get into a playoff. But he settled for fourth, the best finish in his young career. Since then, he has played six times, making the cut in five of them and coming in the top 13 twice. His worst finish was 35th when he did make the cut. He is one of the best values at BetMGM this week (66-1) compared to some of those priced around him.
Rasmus Hojgaard ($8,400 DraftKings, 40-1 Outright)
Hojgaard is almost half Migliozzi’s number in the betting markets despite having a similar DFS salary. He made a name for himself out of the COVID-19 break, coming in the top six four straight events and winning once in that span. He has come in the top three twice and had another good start last week, finishing 18th. There is no need to bet against a hot golfer that could play himself on to the Ryder Cup team if he wins again.
Min Woo Lee ($7,900 DraftKings, 66-1 Outright)
Lee has had a good summer of golf as well. Winning the Scottish Open jolted him to 64th in the world, and he found his stride again in the last few weeks after missing the cut at the British Open and coming in 62nd at the WGC Fed Ex St. Jude. Finishing 21st and 12th has moved him to a career-best 60th in the world.
Sean Crocker ($7,800 DraftKings, 66-1 Outright)
Crocker has played all his professional golf overseas. He is challenging his career-best No. 121 world ranking again on a nice stretch of golf that includes four top-11s and five top-20s in his last nine events. But the problem is that the misses are big, as he has three missed cuts among those nine starts. At these price levels, he is worth a few shares this week.
Calum Hill ($7,700 DraftKings, 66-1 Outright)
Hill has enjoyed a good first season on the Race to Dubai, ranking 20th on the season-long point list. His big breakthrough was a win four weeks ago at the Cazoo Open. He came in seventh a few weeks later and continued his strong form with a 34th last week at the Italian Open. While not his best finish, Hill still showed some of that upside with rounds of 65 and 66 on the week. The 65 on Friday was the best score of the day, also shot by Daniel van Tonder.
Johannes Veerman ($7,500 DraftKings, 66-1 Outright)
Veerman was on the verge of losing playing status, with zero top-10s through the first 20 events. But a third-place finish at the Irish Open turned things around. He followed that up with an eighth-place finish, which was good enough to get him into the British Open, where he made the cut and came in 46th. His one-month break proved pivotal, as he came back and won the Czech Masters. He returned to form last week with a tie for eighth at the Italian Open. His missed cut equity is a bit higher, but if recent form prevails, the price tag seems reasonable this week.
Other PGA DFS Lineup Fill-ins
- Shane Lowry ($10,800)
- Adam Scott ($9,400)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($9,200)
- Victor Perez ($8,000)
- Justin Harding ($7,600)
- Thomas Detry ($7,600)
- Thomas Pieters ($7,500)
- Jordan Smith ($7,400)
- Shubhankar Sharma ($7,200)
- Matthew Jordan ($7,100)
- Adri Arnaus ($7,100)
- Callum Shinkwin ($7,000)
- Eddie Pepperell ($6,900)
Top Picks based on Recent Form
With over 130 players teeing it up this week and an average of just under seven starts per golfer, there is plenty of data to analyze. Just 23 golfers have two or more top-10s in this week’s field, and only seven have three or more top-10s over the past 12 weeks. Here are the top five golfers not already listed based on their recent performance.
Henrik Stenson ($9,100 DraftKings)
After a terrible year, Stenson has found form late in the season. This will be his fourth straight week playing, but in the previous three he has three top-15s and two top-five finishes. Stenson, known for his ball striking, had really struggled this year in that department, but he has found something recently. He is one of only 23 golfers playing this week that have at least two or more top-10s.
Richard Bland ($7,800 DraftKings)
After earning his first European PGA Tour Victory, Bland has three top-fives in just eight events since. The best stretch of golf in his life should yield another good start here near home.
Justin Harding ($7,600 DraftKings)
Given how good of a year he has had with putting, Harding primarily earns his keep through his short-term game prowess. He has racked up three top-10s over the past 12 weeks but does have two missed cuts and two other top-25s in eight starts.
Masahiro Kawamura ($7,300 DraftKings)
With three top-66s in the last seven weeks, Kawamura is playing as well as anyone on the European Tour. He has not missed a cut either, showing consistency and upside, a perfect blend for someone priced in the value range.
Francesco Laporta ($6,400 DraftKings)
Laporta, the true boom/bust target, has finished in the top five twice in the last six events but also missed the cut twice. He is the only golfer priced under $7,000 this week to have multiple top-10s in the past 12 weeks, and he presents solid upside at these prices.
Top Picks Based on Course History
There is over 30 years of history to work with this week, so there is plenty of data from which to draw conclusions.
Justin Rose ($9,000 DraftKings)
Rose was a bit of an enigma this year. He was one of a few big names to miss the FedEx Cup Playoffs, barely coming in 10th at the Wyndham Championship. He comes back to a course where he has found mild success on since 2015, with two top-10s and four made cuts in four tries.
Francesco Molinari ($8,200 DraftKings)
Molinari is one of only two golfers to have come in the top 10 three times at Wentworth since 2015 (Noren). He is also one of three golfers to have four or more top-25s here, joining Shane Lowry and Andrew Johnston.
Danny Willett ($7,600)
After winning here in 2019, Willett announced his return to solid golf after struggling during the 2018-2019 seasons. He also finished third here back in 2016, adding three other made cuts and only one missed in six trips.
Rafa Cabrera Bello ($7,300)
While the trend of missed cuts both at this tournament and in recent form do not look great, his back-to-back top-10s in 2018 and 2019 certainly do.
Luke Donald ($6,800 DraftKings)
Donald is the only two-time winner of the event in the field this week. His recent form here has not been as good, missing cut once and making the cut three other times in four trips since 2015.
Ross Fisher ($6,800)
Since 2017 Ross has been one of the more consistent performers here, going 4-for-4 with two top-10s and three top-20s over that span. The stellar play is preceded by two missed cuts in 2016 and 2015, but he has shown the course fit over the last four, making him a worthy contender for decent allocation at these price levels.
Other PGA DFS Notables
Golfers not listed above that should garner some allocation in the player pool this week.
- Tyrrell Hatton ($10,600)
- Matthew Fitzpatrick ($10,300)
- Billy Horschel ($10,000)
- Ian Poulter ($9,800)
- Lee Westwood ($9,300)
- Matt Wallace ($7,900)
- Antoine Rozner ($7,700)
- Martin Kaymer ($7,600)
- Andy Sullivan ($7,500)
- Aaron Rai ($7,500)
- Adrian Meronk ($7,400)
- Ryan Fox ($7,400)
- Richie Ramsay ($7,200)
- Daniel van Tonder ($7,200)
- Joost Luiten ($7,100)
- Alexander Levy ($7,100)
- Kurt Kitayama ($7,000)
- Kiradech Aphibarnrat ($6,900)
- Graeme McDowell ($6,800)
- Jazz Janewattananond ($6,700)
- Wilco Nienaber ($6,600)
- Max Kieffer ($6,500)
- Gavin Green ($6,500)
- Marcus Kinhult ($6,500)
- Sami Valmiki ($6,400)
- Scott Jamieson ($6,400)
For those of you that like to play multiple lineups, there should be plenty of names to help build a number of lineups.
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