PGA DFS Optimizer Picks Honda Classic: Shane Lowry One of Few High-End Options in Limited Field

The PGA Tour begins the Florida swing this week with the Honda Classic, which will once again play at PGA National (par 70, 7,125 yards, Bermuda greens) in Palm Beach Gardens. Sepp Straka is the defending champion of the Honda Classic, winning last year’s edition at -10. Following last week’s limited field at the Genesis, the Honda Classic presents a full field of 156 golfers and a standard top 65 and ties cut after the first two rounds. Below are some of the top PGA DFS picks for the Honda Classic, utilizing Stokastic’s Top Golfers Tool to find the best leverage plays for GPPs.

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PGA DFS Picks & Optimizer Plays: Honda Classic

PGA National is a tricky par 70 that features difficult-to-hit greens and water on 15 of 18 holes. Given how tough it is to stick the greens consistently, not only is approach play crucial, but so is work around greens. Over the last four years, three of the Honda Classic victors finished the event top 8 in both strokes gained on approach and strokes gained around the green. Plus, with PGA National being a par 70, targeting elite par-4 players is a must this week. Straka ranked fourth in par-4 efficiency during his victory at last year’s Honda Classic, making him the third consecutive winner of this event to finish the tournament top 8 in the metric.

Leverage scores are a product of comparing a player’s ownership versus their salary-weighted odds to finish in the top 6 of the tournament.

Shane Lowry

Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 2nd, FanDuel: 110th

With Stokastic projecting Lowry to only be rostered by around 13% of the field on DraftKings, he is an elite target for GPPs. Lowry finished runner-up to Straka at last year’s Honda Classic and has never missed a cut at PGA National in five appearances at the Florida track.

In addition to the great history at PGA National, Lowry is on the heels of finishing 14th at the Genesis, where he ranked 11th in strokes gained tee to green in a world-class field at Riviera. Lowry has now carded three top-25 finishes in his last four starts and should expose the weak field for at least a top-10 finish.


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Webb Simpson

Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 4th, FanDuel: 9th

Simpson has made three consecutive cuts at PGA National, including two top-25 finishes, most notably finishing fifth in 2018. He now returns fresh off finishing 57th at the Phoenix Open. While this wasn’t the greatest result, Simpson gained strokes from tee to green, on approach and around the green at TPC Scottsdale, and if he didn’t rank sixth-to-last in strokes gained putting, Simpson would have likely produced his best finish of the season.

Simpson’s putting can only improve from this showing, and if he can maintain his strong ball striking and work around the greens, he should easily outperform his cheap salaries with a quality finish at PGA National this weekend. For both DraftKings and FanDuel, Stokastic is forecasting Simpson to be only around 1% owned.

Chris Kirk

Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 40th, FanDuel: 90th

Coming off a missed cut at the Phoenix Open, this is a great time to buy low on Kirk, especially on DraftKings, where Stokastic is projecting him for single-digit ownership. Kirk only missed the weekend by one stroke at TPC Scottsdale, and before that he had carded back-to-back third-place finishes and had only missed two cuts in his previous 15 starts. Kirk ranks fifth in par-4 efficiency, 15th in strokes gained around the green and 20th in strokes gained on approach over his last 24 rounds. He should get back on track at PGA National this week with a high finish.

Kirk has made eight cuts in 11 tries at PGA National, including four top-30s and a seventh last season.

Jason Dufner

Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 50th, FanDuel: 61st

With Stokastic slating Dufner for essentially no ownership on either DraftKings or FanDuel, he is worth a flier on in GPPs this week. Dufner boasts an illustrious resume at PGA National, making 12 of 13 cuts and adding six top-30 finishes in his career. Now he returns to PGA National on the heels of his best finish in quite some time, placing 32nd at the Phoenix Open. Dufner gained strokes tee to green, on approach and around the green that week at TPC Scottsdale. Most impressively, the 7.7 strokes he gained from tee to green ranked 10th and were the most strokes Dufner has produced in the category in almost two years.

If he can carry over this momentum to a course he knows extremely well, Dufner should be able to advance through the cut, which would be an outstanding return at his very low salaries.

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