The PGA Tour travels from Hawaii to La Quinta, California this week for the American Express. This is a rare tournament that features three different courses. Every golfer of this 156-man field will play a round on the PGA West Stadium Course (par 72, 7,113 yards, Bermuda greens), the Nicklaus Tournament Course (par 72, 7,159 yards, Bermuda greens) and at La Quinta Country Club (par 72, 7,060 yards, poa greens). Then there will be a top 65 and ties cut, and those players that proceed will play the final round at the Stadium Course. With all previous strokes gained data from this tournament only coming from the Stadium Course and that venue hosting two of the four rounds this week, that track will be the focus for research. Below are some of the top PGA DFS picks for the American Express, utilizing Stokastic’s Top Golfers Tool to find the best leverage plays for GPPs.
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PGA DFS Picks & Optimizer Plays: American Express
At the Stadium Course, a terrific showing with the irons is essential to climb the leaderboard. During his two-stroke victory at the American Express last season, Hudson Swafford ranked fourth in strokes gained on approach, making him the third straight champion of this event to rank top 5 in the stat during their wins. Additionally, capitalizing on the four par 5’s of the Stadium Course is a must for contending at the American Express, with four of the previous victors of this tournament finishing the event top 5 in strokes gained on the par 5’s.
Leverage scores are a product of comparing a player’s ownership versus their salary-weighted odds to finish in the top 6 of the tournament.
Sam Burns
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 7th, FanDuel: 80th
Burns is coming off an uninspiring 32nd at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, but before this he had produced seven top-20 finishes in his previous 12 starts, most notably with a win at the Charles Schwab Challenge and a seventh at the CJ Cup. Burns has gained strokes with his irons in seven of his past 12 starts and has been outstanding with his flat stick, ranking third in strokes gained putting over his last 50 rounds.
Burns has shown great upside at the American Express, making two of three cuts, including a sixth two years ago. He is a very sharp play on DraftKings this week, where his salary has dropped under $10,000 and Stokastic is slating him for single-digit ownership.
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Justin Rose
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 3rd, FanDuel: 3rd
After missing back-to-back cuts, Rose came alive at the end of the fall swing, finishing ninth at the Houston Open and then 29th at the RSM Classic, with the latter event consisting of multiple courses like the American Express. During these two starts, Rose shot under par in all but one round and stuck 77% of greens in regulation.
Rose will now look to build off this encouraging form at the American Express, which is an event where he has been successful in the past. He has made five of six cuts at this tournament and is a terrific gamble for GPPs this week, with Stokastic projecting him to be less than 5% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
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Jason Day
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 85th, FanDuel: 17th
Day is coming off a missed cut at the RSM Classic but was on a serious roll prior to this, finishing eighth, 11th, 21st and 16th, in that order. Even including the missed cut at the RSM Classic, Day has impressively shot under par in 15 of his past 18 rounds. Furthermore, he has been striking the ball at an elite level, ranking fourth in strokes gained on approach and ninth in strokes gained tee to green over his past 24 rounds.
Day is vastly underpriced for his upside this weekend and is an elite contrarian option, with Stokastic forecasting him for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
James Hahn
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 10th, FanDuel: 12th
Hahn has made six of eight cuts at the American Express and enters this week on the heels of 27th at the Houston Open in which he gained strokes in every major category. Hahn has now advanced to the weekend in seven of his past 10 starts and carded three top-30 finishes during this run.
Ranking eighth in strokes gained on approach and 23rd in strokes gained on par 5’s over his last 24 rounds, Hahn checks all the boxes for this week and is a great value play that should get us four rounds of golf.
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