⛳ PGA DFS Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational Optimizer Picks & Leverage Leaders for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups | 3/3

The Florida swing continues this week with the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Since 1983, Bay Hill (par 72, 7,454 yards) has been the only home of this event. PGA DFS has a full slate of high-end GPP plays available for this tournament, and below are some of my favorite PGA optimizer fantasy golf picks of the week for both DraftKings and FanDuel.

These fantasy golf picks are based on Awesemo’s Top Golfers Tool, designed by Alex “Awesemo” Baker to provide leverage scores for each golfer in the field based on their ownership, salary and chances of finishing inside the top six. These picks combined with the site’s daily fantasy golf picks, projections and analysis should help with lineup construction.

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PGA Optimizer Fantasy Golf Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational

At Bay Hill, distance off the tee isn’t needed. Most players will elect to keep their drivers in their bags to improve their accuracy, and the primary key to success at this Florida track is great iron play. The next most important skill is putting. That might sound obvious, but annually we see elite putters at the top of leaderboard at Bay Hill. Given that this an invitational-style event, there will only be 125 players in the field with a standard top 65 and ties cut line taking place after the second round. The higher cut rate makes this an optimal week to take more risks at the lower end of the player pool, so the stars-and-scrubs approach is my preferred route for roster construction.

Matthew Fitzpatrick

Awesemo PGA DFS Leverage Scores: DraftKings: 1.3%, FanDuel: -1.4%

Recently, Fitzpatrick has flashed some serious upside. Following his impressive win at DP World Tour Championship in Dubai back in December, Fitzpatrick has missed one cut and posted a 17th, fifth and 11th. The latter finish was last weekend at the Workday Championship, and for the week he ranked 18th in strokes gained tee to green 13th in strokes gained putting and 10th in strokes gained on par 4’s.

Furthermore, Fitzpatrick is a world-class putter on Bermuda. If we look at all of these golfer’s last 50 rounds on this specific surface, he ranks 3rd in total strokes gained, and his last two attempts at Bay Hill have resulted in a runner-up and a T9. Per Awesemo’s Top Golfers Tool, Fitzpatrick has 15.9% chance of recording a top-6 this weekend and is projected for sub ten percent ownerships on both DraftKings and FanDuel.


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Henrik Norlander

Awesemo PGA DFS Leverage Scores: DraftKings: 3.2%, FanDuel: 3.4%

After missing the cut at the Genesis Invitational, Norlander is expected to carry some very low ownership levels on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week. Despite the missed weekend, Norlander still posted positive strokes tee to green and when approaching the greens at Riviera, but it was his ugly performance on the POA greens that ultimately sent him home (-2 strokes putting). Norlander has always struggled on this type of grass and luckily, he will be back on Bermuda this week at Bay Hill.

Bermuda is the only putting surface that Norlander possesses positive splits on and he had made four straight cuts before the Genesis, two of which came at courses that are home to Bermuda greens. Those finishes were a 22nd at the Phoenix Open and a 12th at the American Express. Since the start of the new year, Norlander has been a phenomenal ball striker (third in strokes gained tee to green and fifth in strokes gained on approach) and a top-20 is certainly possible this week if his flat stick can find some life.

Ian Poulter

Awesemo PGA DFS Leverage Scores: DraftKings: 3.2%, FanDuel: 3.5%

Poulter is easy to hate, but it would be silly to ignore him this week. His calling cards have always been his strong iron play and putting, and Poulter is 11-for-15 at Bay Hill for his career. He has made ten consecutive cuts in Orlando, finishing inside the top 25 six times. If we include his results from the European Tour, he has made eight of his past ten cuts, with five top-25s.

Simply put, Poulter is one of the best Bermuda putters in the world. It’s been nearly three years since he missed a weekend on this cut of grass at the PGA level, making a whopping 15 cuts in a row. Poulter finished with a top-20 at seven of these events, with the obvious highlight being his win at the 2018 Shell Houston Open, which is the last time he won on tour. At only $7,300 on DraftKings, Poulter needs to be in your GPP pool this week.

Bo Hoag

Awesemo PGA DFS Leverage Scores: DraftKings: 1.5%, FanDuel: 1.4%

With more of the field proceeding through the cutline this week, taking a gamble on a near minimum priced player like Hoag makes a ton of sense. In his last eight starts, Hoag has made it to the weekend six times. In fact, in these six made cuts, he has provided three top-25s and hasn’t finished worse than 36th. Plus, his ball striking has been very solid, producing positive strokes tee-to-green at seven of his past eight tournaments.

This is rather compelling consistency, and there is a strong possibility that Hoag gets us four rounds of golf in his debut at Bay Hill this week, which is all we can ask for from a golfer this cheap.


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Looking for more PGA Optimizer picks for Arnold Palmer Invitational? We have loads of PGA optimizer picks articles, data, DraftKings and FanDuel cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo PGA home page. Just click HERE.

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