PGA DFS Optimizer Picks: U.S. Open Leverage Leaders for DraftKings & FanDuel GPP Lineups | 6/15

Located in La Jolla, Calif., the South Course (par 71, 7,685 yards) of Torrey Pines will host the 2021 U.S. Open this week. As always with majors, the DFS golf industry is offering some huge GPPs on DraftKings and FanDuel, and below you will find some of the top PGA DFS optimizer picks using Awesemo’s Top Golfers Tool.

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PGA DFS Optimal  Picks for the U.S. Open

The South Course hosted the 2008 U.S. Open, when Tiger Woods fought through an injured left leg and knee to capture the 14th major victory of his career, and we also know this venue from the Farmers Insurance Open, which appears on the PGA schedule annually. Three of the four rounds of the Farmers are held at the South Course, and while the USGA will make this track far more challenging for this week’s major, analyzing player histories at the Farmers is still relevant for research. After converting the sixth hole to a par 4 from a par 5, the South Course will now play as a lengthy 7,685-yard par 71. All of the last five U.S. Open champions have ranked in the top-10 in driving distance during their wins, and having a strong driver will be a must to climb the leaderboard at the South Course this week. During his epic win here in 2008, Woods led his field in scoring on the par 5’s in La Jolla, and these are the primary holes to focus on for this year’s U.S. Open. Lastly, the South Course is home to poa greens, and as always for majors, it is wise to put a large weight on bogey avoidance. Last season was the third year in a row that the U.S. Open winner led the field in fewest bogeys recorded.

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***Leverage scores are a product of comparing a players ownership vs their salary weighted odds to finish in the top-six of the tournament.***

Dustin Johnson

Awesemo PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores: DraftKings: 4.6%, FanDuel: -2.6%

After being sent home early from the PGA Championship and then taking a few weeks off, Johnson looked like his old self at Palmetto Championship this past weekend. He gained 7.3 strokes tee to green, which is his largest output since the Genesis in February, and Johnson ranked fourth in total birdies. Assuming this rejuvenated form carries over to the South Course, Johnson should continue his career dominance at the U.S. Open this week. In his last seven tries at this major, Johnson has finished top six or better five times, including his 2016 win at Oakmont. Plus, he loves poa greens, and no golfer in this field has gained more total strokes on par 71s that feature poa than Johnson over the last five years.

With more expected ownership, he is less appealing on FanDuel. But on DraftKings Johnson is slated for less than 10% ownership, with most DFS players paying up for Jon Rahm or dropping down to Bryson DeChambeau. As a result, Johnson carries the highest leverage score of the week for DraftKings, per Awesemo’s Top Golfers Tool.


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Justin Thomas

Awesemo PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores: DraftKings: 1.2%, FanDuel: 1.6%

Via Awesemo’s Top Golfers Tool, Thomas’ ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel is expected to hover around 13% in GPPs this week, and simulations are giving him the fifth-best odds to win this major. With a missed cut, a 40th- and a 42nd-place finish in his last three starts, Thomas’ recent results aren’t encouraging at a first glance. However, at The Memorial he ranked sixth in strokes gained tee to green and second in strokes gained off the tee. But Thomas’ putter was a complete disaster on the Bermuda greens in Dublin, Ohio, ranking second-to-last in strokes gained putting of all the players that proceeded through the cut. Statistically he is at his worst on Bermuda, and the shift to poa at the South Course should result in positive results for Thomas at the U.S. Open. In his last 50 rounds on par 71s with poa greens, Thomas ranks fifth in total strokes gained.

Erik van Rooyen

Awesemo PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores: DraftKings: 2.4%, FanDuel: 0.2%

Van Rooyen was struggling mightily, failing to make the cut in four consecutive starts, but he turned things around last week at the Palmetto Championship. Both his approach and tee-to-green games came alive, gaining over four strokes in each category. That resulted in a 10th-place finish at Congaree Golf Club. Van Rooyen also had an outstanding week with his driver, posting a 327-yard average drive. This length will be needed at the South Course, and van Rooyen is no stranger to competing at the major level.

Excluding his first-round withdrawal from the 2020 Masters, van Rooyen has only missed one cut in seven career major starts, including four top-25 finishes. He is guaranteed to be a contrarian option on both sites, and van Rooyen brings much better upside than his inexpensive salaries suggest.

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Wilco Nienaber

Awesemo PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores: DraftKings: 1.9%, FanDuel: 1.2%

Nienaber carded a 14th-place finish in his PGA debut last week at the Palmetto Championship, and he turned heads with his effortless power. With an absurd 361-yard average drive, Nienaber led the field in distance and ranked third in strokes gained off the tee. Additionally, he ranked first in strokes gained on par 4’s 450 to 500 yards at Congaree by a whopping three strokes. This is noteworthy because six of the 11 par 4’s Nienaber will battle at the South Course fall in this range.

This season he ranks third in driving distance on the European Tour, and he just captured his first professional win at the Dimension Data Pro-Am in May. While it is always worrisome rostering a player that has never teed it up at a major before, Nienaber is very cheap and his game is an excellent match for Torrey Pines. He is going to come with essentially no ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.


Check out Jason Rouslin’s PGA DFS picks videos on our Awesemo YouTube Channel. Jason goes over the top PGA DFS value plays, sleepers and fades for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups for this week’s U.S. Open.

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