RSM Classic DFS Golf Picks: Tom Hoge in line for a big week

This week the PGA hosts its final event of the fall swing at the RSM Classic, an event that has been around since 2010 and takes place on the golf mecca of Sea Island. The venue this week involves dual courses, as players will play one round a piece at both the Seaside and Plantation venues and then just the 7,055-yard, par-70 Seaside venue on the weekend. These courses are shorter and typically play quite easy, although the Seaside venue is more open (almost links style) and much more exposed to the sea. The weather this week will be something to watch and some cooler temperatures (highs in the mid to high 50F range) will be in store.

As always, this article will use Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections down below to help get started in the right direction for PGA DFS lineups and target some of the top projected players and values for the week.

RSM Classic PGA DFS Golf Picks

Winners have tended to be of the veteran variety as length off the tee is not as important. Strong proximity on approach and strong putting are what to target this week with the most popular ranges tending to be in the 125- to 175-yard category for approaches. Some courses/events that correlate well with this event include the Sony Open, The Wyndham Championship and the RBC Heritage. All use more classic setups where driving distance is deemphasized and good short games around smaller greens come into play. Looking at past results at these events is a good way to understand the kind of players can thrive at Sea Island for daily fantasy golf lineups.

Seaside/Plantation Course Stats and Info

Par 70, 7,055 yards; Sea Island Seaside Course has been the host for this event since inception/ Plantation Course plays as 7,060-yard par 72.
Played as the 16th-easiest venue in 2020 at -1.1 strokes under par; average driving distance for the week is usually 7 to 10 yards under the tour average.
Greens tend to be easy to hit but tougher to scramble on; the average scramble rate is generally a couple of percentage points under the tour average.
Target strong approach play — two of the past three winners have gained 4.0 strokes or more on approach in three measured rounds at the Seaside venue.

RSM Classic 2022 DFS Golf Picks

Tom Hoge

Total Points Projection: 68.4 | Top 6 percentage: 15.5%

The withdrawal of Tony Finau has left this field devoid of any real stud with elite win equity. With that fact in mind, starting lineups with Tom Hoge is OK this week. The winner of the 2022 Pebble Beach pro-am last February, Hoge has shown that his iron game is on par with some of the best in the game. He ranks first in short- and long-term trends in stroke gained on approach in this field and that kind of strength is what just allowed Russel Henley to grab a win at a similar styled golf course in Mexico just two weeks ago.

Hoge projects this week as a top-3 player in terms of pure point projections, and even though his value score isn’t quite as elite as a couple of others in the Stokastic PGA DFS projections, his top-6 percentage is the second highest in the field. This is the kind of spot we’ve seen Hoge get it done at before and he comes into this event with four top-15 finishes this fall already and well rested. It’s a good time to build around him in what will be a very wide-open event.

Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings 15.9% | FanDuel 21.7%

The Stats:

Leads field in strokes gained on approach over last 50 and 24 rounds of play.
Finished fourth (2021) and ninth (2015) at the RSM Classic in previous seasons.

Davis Riley

Total Points Projection: 62.3 | Top 6 percentage: 10.2%

Going down in salary into the $8,000 range, there is a lot of talent comparable to those at $9,000 and above on DraftKings this week. One player who looks somewhat underpriced in this field right now is Davis Riley, who has one of the best value scores in the field this week of any player above $8,000 on DraftKings. Riley is coming off back-to-back top-30 finishes, and his 27th placing last week in Houston included a round of 64 in round two.

Riley has elite talent, scoring a runner-up finish at the Valspar and a solid 13th place at the PGA Championship last spring. From a stat perspective, everything was clicking for Riley last week except the putter as he gained 5.5 strokes ball-striking alone and showed better consistency off the tee — a part of his game which had started to unravel a bit throughout the fall. He’s posted top-10 finishes at Colonial, Port Royal and Copperhead, which suggest these more technical tracks may in fact be a good setup for him, long-term. With solid PGA DFS projections and elite upside, eating a little chalk with Riley this week and making him a core play isn’t a poor idea at all in DFS.

Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings 17.9% | FanDuel 3.6%

The Stats:

Gained 5.5 strokes ball-striking last week in Houston; ranks fourth in the field in strokes gained on approach.
Has missed just one cut in his last nine PHA Tour starts.

Latest PGA DFS Content

Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP Flier

Justin Suh

Total Points Projection: 53.7 | Top 6 percentage: 4.8%

When we’re talking about solid young players to target for PGA DFS tournaments, Justin Suh can often get overlooked. He doesn’t have the results that some of the other top names on the PGA Tour have, but he has a lot of talent and comes into this week’s event having made two cuts in a row after a poor start to his fall swing.

Suh isn’t a long hitter, but he has elite putting upside and is coming off a couple of big weeks with that club. The fact he was positive in terms of his strokes gained on approach last week in Houston is a great sign too and the course this week is much shorter and technical, making it a great spot for him to potentially pop for a decent week. He’s not getting much love at sub-5% projected ownership in the Stokastic PGA DFS projections but has as much potential as anyone in his range this week given the setup.

Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 3.3% | FanDuel 3.4%

Top 2 Under 5% in DraftKings Fantasy Golf This Week

This section will target players that should end up under or close to 5% ownership in larger DraftKings Golf GPPs. These picks are boom/bust PGA DFS players with an almost 100% focus on the upside.

Akshay Bhatia ($6,500)

Bhatia got into this event through Monday qualifying, posting a 62 to win that event outright. He posted a 17th place in Bermuda three weeks ago and is the kind of elite talent who could pop-up in this field and post a big result. A winner in the Bahamas last year on the Korn Ferry Tour, these shorter seaside venues have been favorable to him and he’s a solid upside player to target who should carry extremely low ownership.

Sean O’Hair ($6,500)

O’Hair is the kind of veteran player that pops up with decent weeks at Sea Island every year. He was 12th in greens in regulation at the Bermuda a few weeks ago and sixth in driving accuracy at that same event. O’Hair now has four top-20 finishes on the PGA Tour over his last 10 starts and needs a good week to gain some status. He’s a solid punt play here as well.

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