This week’s tournament has been the new-year kickoff point for the PGA Tour for some time now, and more than ever in 2021, it feels like a great way to reset and hopefully get back to a little normalcy. The Sentry Tournament of Champions has gone by a few different names, but it has always been an event that celebrates last year’s champions by giving them an easier shot at some free money in a smaller field, and it has always been held in Maui at the Plantation Course. Like the format, the venue is one of the more unique on tour, as the Plantation Course is a sprawling and wide-open par 73 that features four par 5’s — three of which are very reachable in two — but just three par 3’s. We’ll be breaking down some of the best PGA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy golf lineups based on the expert rankings and projections of the No. 1 player in the world, Alex “Awesemo” Baker.
This event used to be characterized by some very low scoring — Jordan Spieth got to 30 under par here in 2016 — but the recent renovations done prior to the 2020 edition helped modernize the course for the players by adding length, giving the course new championship tee boxes, and new greens and bunkers. Last year, despite the weather being decent enough, the winning score only reached 14 under par, which was the worst winning score the event has seen since 2007. The course has been dominated by 20-somethings of late too, as five of the last six winners were 26 or younger. The hilly terrain and humid weather may have something to do with that, but so may the wide-open fairways that allow the younger bombers to use driver a ton.
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Plantation Course Stats and Info
- Justin Thomas was the first winner here in the past five seasons to gain fewer than 2.5 strokes putting.
- The field typically averages well over 70% of the fairways hit, which is far higher than the tour average.
- Greens are also easy to hit — they’re oversized compared to average tour greens — but scrambling is tough and generally falls
under or around 55%, lower than the tour average.
Putting Splits
The greens at the Plantation Course are Tifeagle Bermuda. They were replaced here after the 2019 event and should play a little firm for the next year or too. Generally, though, due to the humid climate, you’ll see them run slow for PGA standards (around 10-10.5 on the stimp). Here’s a more general look at some of the best and worst Bermuda putters in the field relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.
Positive Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds
- Sungjae Im: +30 on Bermuda, -13 on all other surfaces
- Marc Leishman: +24 on Bermuda, -15 on all other surfaces
- Ryan Palmer: +1 on Bermuda, -16 on all other surfaces
*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost
Negative Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds
- Adam Scott: -13 on Bermuda, +20 on all other surfaces
- Justin Thomas: -2 on Bermuda, +14 on all other surfaces
- Joaquin Niemann: -7 on Bermuda, +12 on all other surfaces
Now, let’s get into some daily fantasy golf lineups projections and ownership; and PGA DFS picks for the Sentry Tournament of Champions on DraftKings and FanDuel.
PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Daily Fantasy Golf Lineups
Jon Rahm: Grades: A, Values: B
Rahm comes in ranked second in points projection in the Awesemo model this week for DraftKings and FanDuel. The Spaniard is only the third-highest-priced golfer on DraftKings, so right off the bat we should be intrigued here. This will be Rahm’s third time playing the Tournament of Champions now, and while his last two starts here only resulted in eighth and 10th-place finishes, the second-place finish he put up in his debut in 2018 certainly catches the eye. With the Tournament of Champions quickly becoming a young man’s game, I have no qualms with leaning Rahm over Dustin Johnson here either. While Johnson is coming off a monster end to 2020, he may also be looking to ease himself into 2021 before a big title defense in April at Augusta. On the other side, there’s little doubt that Rahm is viewing this season as one of opportunity, where a good start would get the pressure off him early and perhaps lead to even bigger wins down the road.
Rahm’s prowess off the tee certainly fits in with past winners here, and his win at the Hero Open in 2019, at another open style tropical venue, is a good indicator of his true upside in events like this. Of the top-six players in the field here he also carries the best value score of the bunch, and the model also has him with 1.5% higher chance of winning this week than his American counterpart Justin Thomas. With pricing tight at the top, there’s no reason to get creative; go with the cheapest stud and ride the Rahm train.
The Stats
– Has averaged +3.4 strokes off the tee at the Plantation Course in his three starts here
– First in this field in approaches from over 200 yards over the last 50 rounds
– Second in strokes gained tee to green and ball striking over the last 24 rounds
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 23.9%| FanDuel: 37.7%
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Tony Finau: Grades: A, Values: A
Finau is one of the players who was able to gain entry into this year’s event through his qualification at the Tour Championship. The American went through another winless year in 2020 but still managed to pile up several great results, including a playoff loss at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and top-10 finishes at the PGA (fourth) and the U.S. Open (10th). This will only be the second time he has played the Tournament of Champions in in his career, but that performance ended up being a solid one and showcased what he’s capable of here, as he gained 3.7 strokes off the tee and finished ninth. And that was despite losing 3.1 strokes putting. Like many younger players, Finau is going to benefit from the changes to this venue over time, which have pushed the tee boxes back further and left the fairways wide open.
At just $8,900 in this smaller field, he’s a great target on DraftKings regardless of who else is here, and it is no surprise that he rates out as one of the best plays in the model this week. Finau comes in with a higher pure points projection than anyone under $10,000 this week and has a higher win rate in the model than anyone under $10,000 as well. Ownership will certainly be up on him here, but he’s a hard player to ignore for DFS, as we know that even if the putter doesn’t fire, he’ll likely produce enough DraftKings points to keep him relevant at this price.
The Stats
– Comes in having gained strokes on approach and off the tee in five straight starts
– Ranks fourth in strokes gained tee to green and third in approach over the last 24 rounds
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 24.1%| FanDuel: 26.3%
Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP Flier
Sebastian Munoz
Munoz is coming off a strong season where he landed multiple top-10s on tour after the restart. Like a handful of other players, Munoz qualified here based on his Tour Championship appearance in 2020 — he finished eighth at East Lake and at the BMW Championship — but he did play the Tournament of Champions the year before. He didn’t have the greatest week here last season but still managed a 17th. Munoz is interesting from a GPP perspective since he’s priced up a little over more in-form players but really doesn’t feel out of place at his current tag on DraftKings and FanDuel.
The sub-10% ownership projection on a player who also just finished 19th at the year’s last major — and helped many people win big GPPs with his production there — is tantalizing. The Colombian ranks eighth in birdie opportunities over the last 24 rounds, and he will offer both legit upside and solid ownership suppression for large-field GPPs. While there are better pure values out there, Munoz has what it takes to outperform this salary and comes with low ownership numbers you won’t be able to find on many quality daily fantasy golf players this week.
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 7.6%
DraftKings Top Two GPP Pivots
Almost no one is projected under 5% owned due to the small field, so I am just choosing a couple nice pivots for GPPs who project for bottom-third ownership.
Patrick Cantlay
While I usually reserve this place for lower-priced GPP punt plays, I figured I’d give Cantlay a shoutout given how he’s projecting. With sub-15% ownership, it feels like most of the field is trending towards Xander Schauffele or Patrick Reed in his range on DraftKings, which will make Cantlay a perfect pivot. Plus, his overall talent level is at least on par with those two. He was fourth here last season (despite losing over two strokes off the tee) and comes in having gained strokes around the green in each of his last seven starts.
Brendon Todd
Todd dealt with some injury issues towards the end of last season but seemed to get them sorted out in time for his last start in Mexico, where he ripped off an eighth-place finish in his title defense. Todd’s not going to bludgeon the Plantation Course like most of the young players, but we have seen players tear this place up on the greens too (like Reed last year). Todd did manage an eighth here back in 2015 on debut. With ownership up on players like Ryan Palmer and Carlos Ortiz in his range, Todd’s another natural pivot with enough upside to pay off in GPP this week.
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