PGA DFS: The First Cut for the Charles Schwab Challenge Picks & more.

The return to some normalcy is likely going to be a gradual process, rather than a sprint. Being able to sit down and write this article every Sunday sets my entire PGA DFS week in trying to determine the type of golfer I’m looking to roster.

If this is your first time reading the article, or you’ve simply forgotten all about PGA DFS, then I’ll give you a quick summary of what’s to come:

Tournament Intro
Course Breakdown & DFS Sweatsheet
Player Preview
Statistical Preview

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PGA DFS Tournament Intro: Charles Schwab Challenge

A staple on the PGA Tour since the late 1940s, this tournament has changed names/sponsors quite a bit over the years. Most recently, previous to Charles Schwab coming into play, it was Dean dea& Deluca. Before them, and for the longest time, it was the Crown Plaza, but now it has some stability with Schwab signing on for four years. The tournament itself has a few distinct characteristics, including the Scottish tartan plaid jacket for the winner of the tournament. Also, it has something called the “Champions Choice” where a past champion selects a deserving young golfer that otherwise wouldn’t be competing in the tournament. One thing that has remained constant is that it’s been played at Colonial Country Club.

Tournament Format

This is a field of 144 players with the top 65 and ties making the weekend. There are also four former champions in the field that do not count towards the 144 number, so you may see 148 names listed on the DraftKings website. If any of those four former champions withdraw, another player will not replace them.

Course Commentary: Colonial Country Club

One of the top-10 hardest courses on tour each year, Colonial Country Club was started in the late 1930s. It was designed by John Bredemus and Perry Maxwell and has hosted prestigious tournaments like the U.S. Open in 1941, The Players Championship in 1975 and the 1991 U.S. Women’s Open. A par 70 at just over 7,200 yards, it isn’t overly long, but it only holds two par 5’s, making winning scores somewhere in the low-to-mid teens under par.

In these few months off, I’ve been able to dive into the PGA Tour stat system and came across some great information when helping to deal with and or create course profiles and segmenting out specific statistics that may shine through here. I’ll highlight some important ones here in the facts in figures and go into more detail in the player section.

One of the distinct features of Colonial is the small greens. In terms of proximity to the hole on approaches, it ranked in the top half of all measured categories. This is typically a product of small greens, as shown by greens in regulation, only 60% of greens hit, the eighth-hardest on tour last year.

Course Profile

Par and Yardage

Par 70: 7,200

Course Difficulty 2019

7/49: just over three-quarters of a stroke over par.

Hole Dispersion

Four Par 3’s : 247, 199, 190, 192
12 Par 4’s: 389, 483, 481, 406, 440, 407, 408, 445, 464, 430, 387, 441
Two Par 5’s: 565, 635

Grass Types

Bent

Designer

Perry Maxwell and John Bredemus

Facts and Figures

Off the Tee: The total driving distance for Colonial ranked 30th out of 49 courses last year. This shows that typically a longer driver isn’t needed here. But, in terms of driving accuracy, it was some of the hardest fairways to hit at just over 53%, third-hardest on tour last year. In fact, it ranked 13th-lowest in terms of the average total drive hit as well.
Approach to the green: Greens in regulation was the eighth-hardest to hit on tour last year at just over 60%. When players miss the fairway here, they aren’t into much trouble, as proximity from the rough ranked 21st-hardest last year.
Around the Green: Missing the green at Colonial isn’t the worst thing, but is more penal than most others. In terms of scrambling percentage, it was ranked 19th-hardest last year. More specifically, scrambling from the fringe, or 10-20 yards, proved harder. Both of them ranked inside the top-15 hardest courses last year.
On the Green: Once players are on the small greens at Colonial, putting hasn’t been typically hard over the years. The overall putting average ranked 33rd-hardest last year on tour. The hardest element seems to be putting from 4-8 feet, ranked 17th-hardest on tour last year. Expect to see a lot of missed putts from this distance this week.

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PGA DFS Sweatsheet and Commentary

Thirty percent of the DraftKings scoring comes on just three holes with over 20% of the scoring on the first two holes alone. In terms of showdowns, the possibility for a streak is actually 18, one and two. That means we want to focus on golfers teeing off on the back nine so they can make the turn into those two most accessible holes while avoiding the need to birdie the third hole for a streak, which is the third hardest on the course.

PGA DFS: Player Preview

The Expected Top-30 Players in the Field by OWGR and Corresponding Odds

Previous Winners (this year’s salary)

2019: Kevin Na ($7,600): -13
2018: Justin Rose ($9,000): -20
2017: Kevin Kisner ($7,600): -10
2016: Jordan Spieth ($8,000): -17
2015: Chris Kirk ($6,700): -12

PGA DFS Statistical Comparison

Driving Accuracy vs. Driving Distance: The band of winners shown above certainly tells a little bit of the story in terms of driving distance. None of those guys listed are anywhere close to the top of the driving distance stat, nor are they that great at hitting fairways. Knowing these fairways are some of the hardest on tour to hit, one can assume that off-tee game here is not nearly as important as it is other courses.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green Analysis: Not one golfer that won here in the last five years has gained more than one stroke off the tee on average. Rose gained .918 n 2018, the highest of any of the five golfers, while Chris Kirk actually lost strokes off the tee and still won the tournament. Strokes gained on the approach seemed to be vital for most winners, except for Jordan Spieth, who only gained .361 on average for the week but gained a tremendous amount in his short game. All told, an excellent short game with a stellar approach is unquestionably the recipe for winning here.
Putting; How good do they need to be here?: Three of the past five winners are some of the best putters on tour: Na, Kisner and Spieth. Rose even went through an excellent putting spell in 2018-19, so I think we have our answer.