World Wide Technology Championship DFS Golf Picks: Scottie Scheffler

We have our second week in a row with a seaside, resort style venue in play as the PGA TOUR heads into Mexico for the Worldwide Technology Championship at Mayakoba, an event that has seen a lot of name changes over the years, including the OHL Classic. This week will be played at El Camaleon, a Par 71 venue that stretches out just past 7,000 yards and really rewards players with good iron play, who can stay out of trouble off the tee. The field this week includes 13 of the world’s top 50 players with Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa and Scottie Scheffler all returning to action. We will also get a look at Viktor Hovland who will be looking to become a three-peat winner of this event as he previously took home the title in 2020 and 2021. Hovland used a no-nonsense ball-striking heavy approach to capture the win here but his accuracy off the tee and on approach can be replicated by other players in this field. Let’s dive in to our DFS golf picks this week.

As always, we’ll be using Stokastic’s Golf projections down below to help us get started in the right direction for our PGA DFS lineups and target some of the top projected players and values for the week.

World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba DFS Golf Picks

This event has been played at El Camaleon since its inception, a Greg Norman design that plays as a short par 71 at barely over 7,000 yards. The course is unique in that it is one of the few on tour that feature paspalum greens, a blend that typically runs slower than other green surfaces. The course is not overly difficult, with easier-to-hit greens than the average tour venue and we often get some light rain during the week to soften up the course as well. The course does require precision, especially off the tee, and players still need precision iron play to really take advantage of Mayakoba’s easier scoring conditions. Viktor Hovland led the field in greens-in-regulation percentage in 2020, while 2019 winner Brendon Todd was third in that same stat for the week of his win. Looking for players trending well in approach and proximity will be key this week.

El Camaleon Stats and Info

Par 71, 7,017-yard venue; uses paspalum grass on the greens and runs along the ocean on several holes.
Five of the par 4’s on the course measure in over 450 yards, and past winners have typically carried solid par-4 scoring with them.
The biggest trend in winners has been their recent form (five of the last six had recorded a top-15 or better in their last two starts) and their ability to hit fairways and greens — (Hovland and 2019 Todd both ranked top 20 in fairways hit and top three in greens hit for the week).

World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba 2022 DFS Golf Picks

Scottie Scheffler

Total Points Projection: 87.2 | Top 6 percentage: 26.2%

Scottie Scheffler will be making his second start of the Fall swing this week. While his time at Congaree didn’t go well it should be noted that the motivation will likely be ramped up for the American after he lost his number one player ranking to Rory McIlroy. Scheffler’s biggest issues in his last start was the putter and with such a drastic shift in green type we could easily see a quick turnaround with that club this week. Scottie Scheffler played at this event last season as well, leading the field in greens in regulation percentage and was right in the running for the win before a late double bogey took him out of the running.

For this week, he’s still projecting as the player with the top points projection in the Stokastic Model, which makes him a very interesting pay up target, considering his ownership percentage may even be half that of Viktor Hovland’s (who is only $200 cheaper on DraftKings) in PGA DFS tournaments. Scheffler’s still 3rd in long term form in strokes gained approach stats and proximity wise does his best work with the mid-irons, which will help on the longer par 4’s. There’s good leverage to be had from going off perennial Mayakoba chalk Hovland and starting with Scheffler here.

Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings 13.1% | FanDuel 24.7%

The Stats:

Ranks third in strokes gained approaches and second in DraftKings points gained over the last 50-rounds
4th at this event last season and led the field in GIR% and made zero bogies the entire week (but did make two double bogies)

Sebastian Munoz

Total Points Projection: 69.9 | Top 6 percentage: 9.7%

If we’re starting with a big salary up top, we need to go looking for serious value underneath. Sebastian Munoz is still projecting strongly in the Stokastic Model and comes into this event with the highest projected point total of any player under $8,000 on DraftKings. Munoz will carry some ownership but he’s also sandwiched between a bunch of well know players and shouldn’t be anywhere near what we’d call “uber chalk”. The Columbian has always been a solid birdie marker and great iron player who ranks 16th in overall proximity in long term form in this field. Where he tends to struggle is on and around the greens, a part of his game which won’t be stressed near as much as it was in past weeks given the overall receptiveness and slow nature of the paspalum grass in Mexico.

Munoz will be making his third Fall start and should be better rested than a lot of the field. If he’s going to make a move this Fall it will certainly need to start here and the setup certainly isn’t much different than a lot of the other venues, we have seen him perform well at (RSM and John Deere Classic) in the past. His lack of Fall results has kept his salary reasonable and his projections on Stokastic say it’s time to take advantage. Look to him for salary relief if you need it this week.

Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings 12.8% | FanDuel 12.6%

The Stats:

Ranks 11th in strokes gained ball-striking and 9th on approach in short-term form
Ranks 10th in par 4 efficiency over the last 24-rounds

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Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP Flier

Jason Day

Total Points Projection: 71.3 | Top 6 percentage: 10.8%

We’ve seen a pretty clear trend form with Jason Day of late. The Aussie has really picked things up with his ball-striking showcasing elite iron and off the tee play once again. While his around the green game hasn’t been working much yet he likely won’t need to rely on it much this week at Mayakoba due to the setup. A low stress week on a course that has catered to veterans in the past might be exactly what Day needs right now and his recent form suggests this is a player with burgeoning confidence.

His DFS price has risen up into the 9k range on DraftKings but as we can see by looking at the Stokastic Projections, his ownership is still projected for well under 10% in this spot. I like jumping on him for tournaments as recent form and good ball-striking has been a good indicator for this event’s most recent past winners and Day has that in spades right now.

Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 8.8% | FanDuel 9.7%

Top 2 Under 5% in DraftKings Fantasy Golf This Week

This section will target players that should end up under or close to 5% ownership in larger DraftKings Golf GPPs. These picks are boom/bust PGA DFS players with an almost 100% focus on the upside.

Russell Henley ($8,400)

As a course, El Camaleon should be a spot where Russell Henley can get himself in the mix on a somewhat regular basis. He’s a model darling and still leads here in long term form for strokes gained approach. Henley’s been out of form this Fall and right now is trending with less than 5% ownership on Stokastic, making him a great potential low-sentiment target to jump on here in big fields.

Ryan Moore ($6,300)

If you want to create true stars and scrubs type builds, might I suggest taking a look at Ryan Moore. He’s been gaining strokes with his approaches on consistent basis of late and has a very solid track record at this event, having finished 6th at this venue back in 2017. If Moore is ever going to challenge again it will come at a venue like El Camaleon and, at this price range, his upwards trend of late makes him worthy of a GPP flyer target.