Welcome to our EPL DFS coverage for Tuesday, March 2. Here you’ll find our top EPL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, which consider all aspects of the slate from projections to pricing to popularity across soccer DFS. These picks should help you create highly projected lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel English Premier League tournaments and cash games.
[FREESOCCER]
EPL Odds Report
Manchester City (-553) vs. Wolverhampton (+1,600), O/U 2.5
EPL DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Lineups | March 2
These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
EPL DFS Picks: Captain
Kevin De Bruyne (DraftKings $18,000, FanDuel $15)
Ilkay Gundogan (DraftKings $11,700, FanDuel $8)
This match looks like a landslide victory for Manchester City. At home, they are the first overall offense and defense with an expected goals differential of 1.27 per match. Wolverhampton have a mid-tier road defense that allows 1.27 expected goals per match. Their offense is fourth worst in the English Premier League, producing just 0.83 expected goals. How to fit the spread Manchester City scoring becomes the difficult task.
Kevin De Bruyne is the do-it-all for the host club. He averages 5.9 crosses per match and 6.25 shots/assisted shots. As the set-piece man, De Bruyne is the core play of the showdown. The offense around him is constantly interchanging. Likewise, Ilkay Gundogan has been a mainstay with offensive involvement. He averages 3.3 shots/assisted shots per match and leads the club in overall scoring. Gundogan comes at a discount compared to the other scoring threats and allows for a mix of the spread goal contribution to fit across the flex. If Riyad Mahrez is in the lineup, he slots in as a floor Captain play with scoring upside as well.
Other Options: Riyad Mahrez (DraftKings $14,700, FanDuel $11).
EPL DFS Picks: Flex
Phil Foden (DraftKings $10,400, FanDuel $9)
Raheem Sterling (DraftKings $10,000, FanDuel $14)
Phil Foden continues to produce on the offense with a mix of open-play crosses and shot volume. The winger sees 2.85 crosses per match, with a significant uptick if Mahrez and De Bruyne are out. He averages 3 shots/assisted shots per match and has contributed on 17.3% of the club’s overall scoring.
Raheem Sterling ranks second on the club in overall scoring, contributing 26.9%. Sterling averages 3.30 shots/assisted shots and can add value by averaging over a drawn foul per match. Both Sterling and Foden see upside in goal scoring with a low floor in respect to their asking prices. They are one-offs in cash games and really only work as a duo in a GPP.
Joao Cancelo (DraftKings $6,600, FanDuel $11)
Ruben Dias (DraftKings $3,600, FanDuel $9)
As mentioned above, Wolverhampton’s road offense is non-existent. Manchester City’s defense make sense in a match where the clean-sheet bonus is very much in play. Joao Cancelo offers upside on both sides of the pitch. He averages 2.05 open-play crosses and 3 shots/assisted shots per match. On the defense, his output averages 2.65 won tackles/interceptions. With Kyle Walker on the opposite end, Cancelo is given license to roam up the pitch, which increases his offensive upside. If Oleksandr Zinchenko starts as the wingback, he likely roams up more and Cancelo sits back. The long-ball play for the Wolves will still permit plenty of defensive metrics for Cancelo to hit value.
Ruben Dias comes in as a rare free asking price on Manchester City. He will have opportunity on the defense to increase his 1.53 interceptions/tackles won per match. The clean sheet will have him over 2x value and allow pay up to a few more goal hunters on the club. The upside is rare for Dias to get shots off on corner sets, but consider that Wolverhampton is the worst club in the EPL at offensive pressure, allowing Manchester City to garner dead-ball deliveries to the penalty area. Dias is averaging a shot in 46% of his appearances.
Other Options: Pedro Neto (DraftKings $9,000, FanDuel $12), Rui Patricio (DraftKings $4,200), Ederson (DraftKings $7,400), Ruben Neves (DraftKings $6,200, FanDuel $10), Jonny (DraftKings $3,800, FanDuel $5)
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