Welcome to our EPL DFS coverage for Saturday, Jan. 16. Here you’ll find our top EPL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, which consider all aspects of the slate from projection to pricing to popularity across soccer DFS.
EPL Odds Report
Leeds United (+110) vs. Brighton & Hove Albion (+240), O/U 2.5
West Ham (-125) vs. Burney (+375), O/U 2.5
Fulham (+550) vs. Chelsea (-200), O/U 3.5
Leicester City (-133) vs. Southampton (+350), O/U 3.5
EPL DFS Picks DraftKings + FanDuel Lineups | Jan. 16
These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Raphinha (DraftKings $7,600 FanDuel $14)
Patrick Bamford (DraftKings $7,800 FanDuel $21)
Leeds United welcome a Brighton club and their below-average defense. Leeds has an all-out attack, but the scoring is usually spread out. Raphinha is a solid floor play, having taken control of corner set shares. His offensive presence on the wing leads to attempts on target and chances for his teammates. He averages 4.08 shots/assisted shots to match the 4.83 crosses per match. When you look at his output against tougher road defenses, you see an increase in the crossing volume to the likes of Tottenham and Manchester United. Brighton will look to absorb the pressure, and Raphinha should have opportunities for an over-2x output.
Patrick Bamford continues his high shot volume with 3.82 per match and 43% on-target accuracy. He needs a goal even at a discounted price, but the volume will be there. With options like Jamie Vardy, Tammy Abraham and Michail Antonio above him price-wise, Bamford could go overlooked. He has the better matchup, and his on-target volume provides a decent floor if he cannot find the scoresheet.
Ivan Cavaleiro (DraftKings $6,000 FanDuel $14)
James Ward-Prowse (DraftKings $7,100 FanDuel $17)
The mighty have fallen for Chelsea, with two stunning defeats to Arsenal and Manchester City. They allowed over 2.1 expected goals in each match. Fulham is not the same caliber offense by any means. They are riding high after a comeback draw against Tottenham, where their offense looked poised. Ivan Cavaleiro handles the set pieces, and at this price he does not need a late goal to produce. His 3.42 crosses per match increase without the likes of Tom Cairney in the lineup. The 2.64 shots/assisted shots might be enough to sneak one past the Chelsea defense, which is still third in the EPL but has fallen from first in recent weeks.
Southampton has a tall task at hand now with Dany Ings being ruled out. This sets up a PK share for James Ward-Prowse. Ward-Prowse already brings a solid floor with 6.05 crosses and 2.52 shots/assisted shots per match. He has proven to continue output with Ings out and has capable finishers up front with Theo Walcott and Che Adams. Ward-Prowse also contributes on the defense with 2.58 won tackles/interceptions.
Jamie Vardy (DraftKings $8,600 FanDuel $22)
Michail Antonio (DraftKings $8,500 FanDuel $20)
These are two goal scorers that hold PK duties for their respective clubs. Jamie Vardy has a plus matchup against a Southampton squad that ranks middle of the pack in road defense. He averages 2.37 shots per match with 55% on-target accuracy. Vardy needs a goal at this price, but the volume is there. He also brings brace upside and contributes on 51% of Leicester’s scoring.
Michail Antonio averages 3.4 shots per match in full-game run. West Ham welcomes a Burnley side that has the third-worst road defense in the EPL. West Ham is a different offense with Antonio, and he can score in bunches. He adds to his value with an average 3.4 drawn fouls per match and can set up his own PK’s getting clipped in the penalty box.
Other Options: Tammy Abraham (DraftKings $8,400, FanDuel $19), Mason Mount (DraftKings $7,900, FanDuel $16), Hakim Ziyech (DraftKings $6,700, FanDuel $14), Jarrod Bowen (DraftKings $8,200, FanDuel $17), Solly March (DraftKings $7,200, FanDuel $11), James Maddison (DraftKings $9,100, FanDuel $18).
EPL DFS Picks: Defenders
Ben Chilwell (DraftKings $5,800 FanDuel $11)
Ezgjan Alioski (DraftKings $4,900 FanDuel $11)
Chelsea offense should look to bounce back, and Ben Chilwell is a key part of it. The wingback averages open-play crossing volume of 5.42 and two shots/assisted shots per match. He prides a solid floor, and the price could have him overlooked, making him viable in all formats.
Ezgjan Alioski is part of the spread offensive attack for Leeds. He will take chances at the net and comes at a discounted price. The concern would be his disappearances from matches at times, so he is a GPP option. He can produce on both offense and defense with 1.66 shots/assisted shots, 1.86 open play crosses and 2.86 drawn fouls, tackles and interceptions.
Other Options: Stuart Dallas (DraftKings $5,600, FanDuel $15), Aaron Cresswell (DraftKings $6,700, FanDuel $11), Antonee Robinson (DraftKings $4,200, FanDuel $14), Reece James (DraftKings $5,200, FanDuel $10), Vladimir Coufal (DraftKings $6,200, FanDuel $13).
EPL DFS Picks: Goalkeeper
Darren Randolph (DraftKings $5,300 FanDuel $12)
Illan Meslier (DraftKings $5,100 FanDuel $11)
Related EPL Content
- VIDEO: The EPL DFS Strategy Show with Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker and Jovanni Vidal
- EPL Soccer Projections for DraftKings
- EPL Soccer Projections for FanDuel
Looking for more EPL DFS picks content? We have loads of articles, data, cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo EPL home page. Just click HERE.