The EPL DFS slate kicks off the season with a four-game slate on DraftKings and five matches for FanDuel. Tottenham comes in as the imposing favorites at -303 (BetMGM) for the early slates, while Chelsea adds another solid spot at -154 (BetMGM). Two of the early matches are virtual pick-’ems, including the newcomers Bournemouth at home against Aston Villa. The core plays in all formats will come from Tottenham at home, despite the high ownership that will accompany them.
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DraftKings & FanDuel EPL DFS Picks Today 8/6
Son Heung-Min (DraftKings: $11,900, FanDuel $22)
Harry Kane (DraftKings: $11,200, FanDuel $21)
Tottenham is the heavy favorite at home. Southampton did not perform that well in the EPL last season, finishing in the bottom half. At home last season, Tottenham sported the fourth-best expected goals mark — 1.87 per match. It allowed 1.01 expected goals per match, good enough for top five in the EPL. Southampton allowed 1.84 expected goals on the road, good for third worst in the EPL. They did knock off Tottenham in their previous meeting before Antonio Conte started to have his squad clicking in the right direction. The Spurs will be too much for the Saints to handle on the road.
Son Heung-Min tied for the EPL scoring lead a season ago. He handles the indirect set shares, and his floor is built on 2.57 shots and 6.65 crosses per match. His drawn foul rate adds to his floor at 1.38, and he created a team-leading 3.86 scoring chances per match. The salary for Son is massive across both FanDuel and DraftKings. It is difficult to play both him and Harry Kane in the same lineup with multiple punt options.
Kane led Tottenham in shot volume with 3.65 per match and finished behind Son in scoring chances created with 3.26. There are some punt options to free up the salary for stacking the two. The two attackers for Tottenham combined for 88% of the scoring via goal and assist splits. Kane lacks the floor of Son but brings brace upside any time he steps on the pitch. Son is the choice between the two because Kane scoring a goal does not automatically pay off the price, while Son can use a goal or assist added to his floor metrics to get to the 1x value.
Callum Wilson (DraftKings: $7,800, FanDuel $18)
Jack Harrison (DraftKings: $7,500, FanDuel $13)
Newcastle welcomes Nottingham Forest. Nottingham Forest had the best road defense in the Championship a season ago, with a goal differential of +12. The final three matches on the road against teams that qualified for the EPL saw them fail to keep a clean sheet. Nottingham Forest qualified by way of playoffs, and Newcastle is a much-improved side down the stretch a season ago. The set shares look to be split among the defenders mentioned below. The attacker of interest is Callum Wilson. He dealt with injuries a season ago, but when healthy he found the back of the net at an impressive rate, considering the expectation. Wilson averaged 2.08 shots per match and scored in 50% of his starts. He handles the penalties but does need a goal to pay off the salary. His lack of floor makes him a GPP option for goal hunting, but the spot is too good to ignore. On FanDuel, the presence of Chelsea will fade out Wilson, which makes him a leverage play. While Newcastle allowed 1.42 expected goals at home, bottom tier in the EPL, they ran a season-ending home stretch of five home matches allowing two goals total and three clean sheets. The set shares and price for two visiting attackers in Jesse Lingard and Brennan Johnson have appeal in GPPs. Either can be a one-off because of the home form Newcastle has when healthy.
Leeds United has a meeting with Wolverhampton. This match does not look appealing and has a line of -125 (BetMGM) on the under. The set piece men are always in play, and Jack Harrison no longer has to split with Raphinha. U.S. National Team newcomers to the club are capable of handling sets. In GPPs, Patrick Bamford comes at a solid discount. Branden Aaronson should see time on the pitch with Daniel James likely out, and his offensive creativity is worth some shares in GPPs.
Other Options: James Ward-Prowse (DraftKings: $8,500, FanDuel $18), Pedro Neto (DraftKings: $7,400, FanDuel $16), Brennan Johnson (DraftKings: $5,800, FanDuel $16), Ollie Watkins (DraftKings: $6,400, FanDuel $17), Philippe Coutinho (DraftKings: $6,800, FanDuel $19), Daniel Podence (DraftKings: $8,000, FanDuel $14), Raheem Sterling (FanDuel $20), Mason Mount (FanDuel $20)
Kieran Trippier (DraftKings: $6,700, FanDuel $14)
Kieran Trippier leads the defender list in salary. He sees the favorable matchup at home against Nottingham. Trippier handles indirect sets on his half of the field. The opposite wingback, Matt Targett, provides a similar floor at a discounted price. Trippier sees 5.42 crosses per match on an even split between sets and open play. He averages 1.89 scoring chances created and 6.67 won tackles/interceptions per match. A hit to the defensive metrics would balance out with offensive flow and a bump to created chances and crossing volume. The shot volume is concerning, but his upside is in the volume of deliveries, which would look to have him over 1.25x on the floor alone.
Other Options: Sergio Reguilon (DraftKings: $6,200, FanDuel $8), Emerson Royal (DraftKings: $6,000, FanDuel $10), Rayan Ait- Nouri (DraftKings: $5,200, FanDuel $11), Lucas Digne (DraftKings: $5,800, FanDuel $12), Matthew Cash (DraftKings: $5,100, FanDuel $12). Ben Chilwell (FanDuel $15), Reece James (FanDuel $15)
Nick Pope (DraftKings: $5,600, FanDuel $14)
Emiliano Martinez (DraftKings: $5,200, FanDuel $11)
Jose Sa (DraftKings: $4,600, FanDuel $10).
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