The first day of the EPL DFS season kicks off with a showdown between Crystal Palace and Arsenal. Palace comes hosts after taking the previous meeting between the two clubs with a 3-0 victory. A season ago at home, Palace finished top three in the EPL in expected goals with 0.91 per match. Their offense was average, with 1.44 expected goals per match. Arsenal was a different side on the road, posting a negative-5.2 expected goal differential overall, compared to +18 at home. The Gunners were 2-4-0 on their road stand in previous EPL competition, and they failed to score a single goal in each defeat. Crystal Palace’s home record in that same frame was 4-0-2. Arsenal is the favored side at -120 (BetMGM), with Palace returning +320 on the moneyline.
DraftKings EPL DFS Picks Today 8/5/22
Eberechi Eze (DraftKings: $13,200)
Wilfried Zaha (DraftKings: $14,400)
Crystal Palace has been clicking at home. They protect their net well and run on counters with plenty of speed on the wings. Arsenal meets them and honestly is the more talented side on paper. Despite hitting the over on 2.5 (-110) in three consecutive matches between the two sides, this game could be a stalemate. The odds will have combos of them stacked heavily at 4-2 and 5-1 in all DFS formats.
Eberechi Eze was in and out of the lineup with injuries a season ago. When healthy, he mixes in 4.33 crosses per match, heavily weighed on the indirect set shares. He creates 3.27 scoring chances per match, trailing only Wilfried Zaha on the team, and draws 2.09 fouls per match. The upside comes from his 1.49 attempts per match at the net and ranking third on the team in goal contribution two seasons ago when he was in form. Should he miss the match, Michael Olise would look to handle the indirect sets and mirrors the drawn foul and created scoring chances at a salary discount.
Zaha is a scoring upside play for GPP. He is not a Captain in neither cash games nor in single-entry tournaments. Zaha builds his floor with over four drawn fouls per match and handles the penalties. His upside is again in finding the back of the net, and his shooting mark is 2.03 per match with an on-target accuracy clip of 32%. He is a Flex play unless running MME, and a few shares would be rewarding given the heavy ownership Arsenal will draw.
Gabriel Martinelli (DraftKings: $13,800)
Martin Odegaard (DraftKings: $12,300)
Gabriel Jesus will be popular up top due to the scoring upside on a new club. Martin Odegaard comes at a significant discount, which will allow spreading the attack of Arsenal in the Flex spot should if the match unfolds like it did a season ago. Odegaard handles set share mixes and averaged 1.72 shots and 4.33 scoring chances created per match. He contributes on 18% of the scoring and balances the goals with assists for upside.
Gabriel Martinelli creates chances on the wing at 3.39 per match, with 1.21 drawn fouls. His shot volume is 2.42 per match, with 30% accuracy. The goal contribution mirrors Odegaard’s 18% mark and has an even split. Jesus and Bukayo Saka are likely to be the highest owned in the Captain spot, so the pivot to either of these two above makes sense in GPP.
Aaron Ramsdale (DraftKings: $7,000)
Vicente Guaita (DraftKings: $5,000)
Rostering goalkeepers will not be fun due to the volatility and the recent match performances between the two clubs. Ramsdale will garner more ownership than he should. He needs a clean sheet victory and a save or two to pay off the price. The Arsenal keeper saw 3.59 on-target attempts a season ago and allowed over a full goal per match. If he concedes, it will be tough to pay off the $7,000 price. If the implied odds are accurate — to the tune of a 1-0 or 2-0 Arsenal victory — then Ramsdale will have to be in lineups.
Vincente Guaita makes more sense at $5,000. He averaged 3.83 on target shows and allowed a goal per match. Allowing one goal and seeing three or four shots on target from the team that posted the fifth-most attempts per match a season ago would make him around a 1x value play. The downside is Arsenal scoring three-plus goals. Cash games do not require the Crystal Palace keeper, but in GPP he is worth the risk.
Tyrick Mitchell (DraftKings: $4,800)
Tyrick Mitchell stands out in any format regardless of the favored stacking team. Mitchell led Crystal Palace in won tackles and interceptions with 5.42 per match a season ago. He committed 0.64 fouls per match and nullified the mark with as many fouls drawn. He can be the one-off in an Arsenal stack, which would balance the possession time form the Gunners forwards with his defensive work when they fail to break through. It could also benefit the stack when they create chances by slipping past him. Mitchell has added value in the open play, with 1.64 crosses per match (second on the team). He has to be the best value play given the projected lineups.
Other Options: Cedric Soares (DraftKings: $6,400), Gabriel Jesus (DraftKings: $10,800), Bukayo Saka (DraftKings: $10,200)
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