The Monday showdown of EPL DFS sees Liverpool welcoming Crystal Palace. Liverpool lost crucial points on the road against Fulham and needs to come away with 3 points in this outing. Palace, on the other hand, has seen five defeats out of their last six away matches.
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DraftKings & FanDuel EPL DFS Picks Today 8/15
Trent Alexander-Arnold (DraftKings: $15,000, FanDuel $10)
Mohammed Salah (DraftKings: $18,600, FanDuel $16)
Liverpool sported the best home offense in the EPL a season ago, with 2.55 expected goals per match. The offense is led in large part by Mohammed Salah and the set piece man Trent Alexander-Arnold. Alexander-Arnold provides the greatest floor with an average 8.14 crosses split evenly via open play and sets. His 4.73 scoring chances created per match leads the club, and his 3.79 won tackles/interceptions solidify the floor. Alexander-Arnold projects for 17.12 point in the Stokastic EPL Projections, ranking second only to Salah.
Salah is on pace to lead the club once again in scoring and goal contributions. His contribution rate sits at 41% dating back to a season ago and his shot volume sits just north of four per match. Salah trails only Alexander-Arnold in scoring chances created with 4.33 per match and handles the penalties for the home side. Alexander-Arnold warrants the captain spot for cash games with the highest floor. Salah makes an interesting GPP play on DraftKings and core captain play on FanDuel with an on-target rate of 36% to provide some sort of a floor should he fail to find the back of the net with his chances.
Eberechi Eze (DraftKings: $6,400, FanDuel $9)
Wilfried Zaha (DraftKings: $8,400, FanDuel $12)
Despite the offensive struggles for Crystal Palace, Liverpool has not shown elite defense in their early EPL and FA Cup matches. Eberechi Eze is the cash one-off in Liverpool favored stacks with indirect set shares. This is assuming Michael Olise is not ready to go from his injury. Eze averages 1.13 shots per match and north of seven crosses without Olise. Defensively he can add value with a few won tackles and interceptions. On DraftKings should the visitors find themselves away from possession as expected, Eze can still produce with crosses above any other forward on his club. For a discount, Tyrick Mitchell averages 5.42 won tackles/interceptions per match. Mitchell ranks first overall for Crystal Palace in value on DraftKings at 1.45 based on the Stokastic EPL Projections. This mark would look to see an uptick in this matchup playing against a side filtered through Salah and Alexander-Arnold.
The GPP one-off is Wilfried Zaha. He handles the penalties and leads the club in scoring chances created. He has the speed to catch the Liverpool side on the counters, but a goal is still a must for the price. Zaha offers a safer floor than most forwards, 4.04 drawn fouls and two attempts at the net per match. He is an upside play and at the price range Liverpool’s attackers are better in cash games.
Joel Matip (DraftKings: $5,000, FanDuel $7)
Darwin Nunez (DraftKings: $11,200, FanDuel $14)
Joel Matip and Virgil Van Dijk will be high owned for the Liverpool victory implied by the odds and the clean sheet bonus hunting. Matip has done more of the attacking on the corner sets. He is averaging a shot and over four won tackles/interceptions per match. These metrics won’t pay off the price without the clean sheet. For the same reason he is still a higher value option than the popular keeper for the home side in Allison. Liverpool will have the chances from set pieces and Matip offers upside in finding a shot on target.
Darwin Nunez will likely come off the bench for a third consecutive match. His ownership will be low cause the salary is high, and he will not run a full 90 minutes. Robert Firmino will start and comes in at a significant discount. It is hard to ignore a few shares of Nunez with over three attempts at the net per match in a small window of game time. He also has found the back of the net in two straight off the bench appearances. In cash games the price does not make sense when the Liverpool wingbacks and forwards can do enough to sit in the money. In GPP, Nunez off the bench over Luiz Diaz or Firmino will create differentiation.
Other Options: Luiz Diaz (DraftKings: $9,000, FanDuel $13), Andrew Robertson (DraftKings: $7,800, FanDuel $9), Jordan Ayew (DraftKings: $6,000, FanDuel $8), Odsonne Edouard (DraftKings: $5,400, FanDuel $10)
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