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Corner Kick: EPL DFS Picks for Matchday 21 with Harry Kane | 1/1/22

Jovanni Vidal



EPL DFS Picks DraftKings FanDuel Fantasy soccer Matchday 21 Harry Kane lineups projections optimizer predictions Arsenal West Ham

Welcome to the English Premier League DFS coverage for Saturday, Jan 1. Below are the top EPL DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for Matchday 21, which consider all aspects of the slate, from Awesemo’s expert projections to pricing to popularity for DFS fantasy soccer. These EPL DFS soccer picks should help with creating highly projected lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy soccer tournaments and cash games.

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**All Odds from BetMGM**

Arsenal (+475) vs. Manchester City (-200), O/U 2.5

Watford (+425) vs. Tottenham (-165), O/U 2.5

Crystal Palace (+210) vs. West Ham (+135), O/U 2.5

Arsenal vs. Manchester City

Bukayo Saka (DraftKings: $13,500)

Kevin De Bruyne (DraftKings: $15,300)

Arsenal play host to Manchester City. Arsenal has just one loss on the year at home and the fifth-best offense, with 1.77 expected goals per match. Manchester City is atop the EPL in standings and mirror their dominant performances both home and away. They rank second in the EPL with an expected goals of 2.21 per match on the road. Both clubs are strong defensively with Arsenal allowing an expected goals of 0.95 at home and Manchester City allowing just 0.77 on the road. They will garner high ownership in 5-1, 4-2 stacks given the favorite tag north of -200 (BetMGM).

Bukayo Saka makes sense considering the set of shares and his ability to add up DFS output with drawn fouls and shot volume. Saka his club with 2.67 shots per match. Arsenal has been on a roll of five consecutive wins, with three-plus goals in four of those with Saka leading the charge. The flex options for Arsenal start with Alexandre Lacazette. He comes in at $6,800 and handles the PK. Lacazette needs a goal even with the discount making him a GPP play. Gabriel Martinelli and Martin Odegaard will the flex roles in an Arsenal stack.

Martinelli averages 2.34 shots per match and creates 3.12 scoring chances. Odegaard is just behind Saka among the team lead in chances created with 4.26 per match. He takes his chances at the net and does well to distribute to his teammates with an assist or goal in 61% of his starts. Saka would be a priority but either one of these wingers fills in a flex role with scoring upside in a spread scoring club. Should Emile Smith-Rowe see the starting 11 he is a top priority in Arsenal stacks and one-off spots with set shares and a discounted salary for the floor.

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The starting 11 will determine the priority of the massive price tags for Manchester City. De Bruyne has the floor and is hard to pass on without Riyad Mahrez. If De Bruyne is out of the starting lineup, which is never out of the question the way Pep shuffles his rotations, Ilkay Gundogan will handle his choice of set pieces. Gundogan averages a goal contribution in 58% of his starts while creating 3.50 scoring chances and 5.44 crosses per match. He takes plenty of attempts at the net with 2.72 shots per match. Mahrez contributed on over one goal or assist per start. He averages 3.57 shots per match and 7.03 crosses per match, via even split of open play and corners.

Raheem Sterling and Phil Foden. are scoring threats, with Foden building a better floor with open play crossing volume. A cash build for a Manchester City stack would see a captain of either De Bruyne or Mahrez. In GPPs Mahrez would be spend up to be different, while Sterling adds an extra attack in the flex while chasing the goals.

Watford vs. Tottenham

Son Hueng-Min (DraftKings: $16,500, FanDuel: $20)

Harry Kane (DraftKings: $15,300, FanDuel: $19)

Tottenham is the third best defensive side on the road in the EPL. They allow an expected goals of 1.02 per match. Their offense has created chances with 1.17 but cannot seem to finish around the net. Only Newcastle has allowed more actual goals at home than Watford and this points to a big advantage for Tottenham.

The captain play seems simple enough with Son Heung-Min in cash games. He averages 6.12 crosses per match and 2.5 shots per match. His floor and team high eight goals make him the safe captain in a plus match up. On FanDuel for the two-game slate he is a top play paired with Harry Kane. Kane is the choice in GPP. He needs to score but has found a groove in recent form of shot volume. Kane has 2.95 shots per match and hits target north of 45%. Son is accurate with his attempts as well, justifying the decision to stack the two on FanDuel and mixing in plays below from the other match on the two-game slate.

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The interesting pivot at captain is Hugo Lloris. He is a world class keeper and world cup champion that has kept a clean sheet in 41% of his starts this season. Watford have found the back of the net in in six consecutive matches which would destroy Lloris’ value, but the upside is worth consideration with the salary relief to fit the Tottenham attack. The flex will round off with Matt Doherty should Sergio Reguilon not be fit. Lucas Moura has goal contribution upside and Emerson is active on the wing.

Emmanuel Dennis. has a goal in six of his previous eight matches. The volume in that run is 2.12 shots per match. The match up will not do Dennis any favors and would be in play on the flex in lineups without Lloris or a punt defender from Tottenham side. On FanDuel the price is in Kane’s range. The absence of Tom Cleverley opens up set shares likely dominated by Joao Pedro but some trickle to Masina would make sense. Masina can add to DFS output with crossing volume and 4.30 won tackles and interceptions. Juraj Kucka fills the same defensive metrics as another option to stack the Tottenham high priced options.

Crystal Palace vs. West Ham

Will Hughes (DraftKings: $10,800, FanDuel: $10)

Jarrod Bowen (DraftKings: $16,800, FanDuel: $18)

Crystal Palace and West Ham battle in the middle of the EPL table. Both clubs are top 9 in the EPL in goals scored. Over 2.5 total goals is -120 (BetMGM). Crystal Palace has just one clean sheet in their last eight matches and allowed two plus goals in four of those outings. West Ham does not know what a clean sheet is despite having two of the best defensive midfielders in the game. On FanDuel, this would be the match to find goal scoring options and leave the goalkeeper decision to the Tottenham chase for a clean sheet.

Jarrod Bowen is the ideal captain with goal contributions of 31.25% for his club and a floor build on the indirect sets. His 2.56 shots per match trail only Michail Antonio whom has 2.93 per match. Bowen leads the club with 3.81 scoring chances created. Antonio is always in play for the scoring upside. He will look to handle the PK with the return of Declan Rice to remove the doubt in having Mark Noble ruining Antonio’s hard-earned PK, see previous match log. Tomas Soucek has the won tackles and interceptions as a floor builder. His upside is in converting his over one shot attempt per match. The risk comes with his committed fouls against a club that has ability to draw many. Rice is pretty much free on the price, and averages north of three won tackles and interceptions. He does well to mix in an average of 1.66 crosses and assisted shots.

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Wilfried Zaha will return from suspension and reclaims PK sets. He builds his floor on three drawn fouls per match and 2.94 shots and assisted shots. Odsonne Edouard is a threat up front with 2.50 shots per match and north of three in recent form. They both make interesting captain plays in GPP. Will Hughes allows slotting in the attackers up front from both sides of this match. Hughes averages 5.67 crosses per match and 2.97 scoring chances created. He draws over a foul per match and can 2x is salary without a goal contribution.

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Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Awesemo to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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