Welcome to the English Premier League Daily Fantasy Sports coverage for Thursday, May 13. Here you will find the top EPL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, which consider all aspects of the slate, from Awesemo’s expert projections to pricing to popularity across the soccer DFS landscape. These picks should help you create highly projected lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel English Premier League tournaments and cash games.
EPL Odds Report
Aston Villa (+180) vs. Everton (+145), O/U 2.5
Manchester United (+180) vs. Liverpool (+130), O/U 3.5
EPL DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Lineups | May 13
These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
EPL DFS Picks: Forwards/Midfielders
Bruno Fernandes (DraftKings $10,200, FanDuel $21)
The later match on this two-gamer features Manchester United hosting Liverpool. Both teams are in solid form, with expected-goal numbers inside the top four in the EPL. Liverpool is slightly better at home, but it is still top two in the EPL on both splits. Manchester United fares slightly better at home than on the road, though their defense at home allows 0.52 actual goals per match more. With the expected absence of offensive firepower from Aston Villa in the early match, the ownership will be high across all the attacks. Manchester United is coming off a match where they rested players specifically for this battle against Liverpool.
In cash, Mohamed Salah is one of the better goal-hunting options regardless of the price given his shot volume and overall scoring. In GPP, however, there will be enough leverage to fade him. Bruno Fernandes is a core play. He averages 4.51 crosses by way of open play and 5.65 shots/assisted shots. He handles penalty kicks and direct free kicks for the hosts. His asking price is the highest, and his floor rests around a 1.25x value in matches where he does not score.
Paul Pogba (DraftKings $6,100, FanDuel $15)
Paul Pogba has been more active since his slot up on the wing. He is a cheaper exposure to the Manchester United attack, and since the slot up in formation, he is averaging over two shots and two assisted shots per match, mixed with an uptick in open-play crosses and drawn fouls. Also of note is the move off the defensive midfield role reduced the committed fouls against.
Mason Greenwood and Marcus Rashford are solid GPP options that will get overlooked given the asking price and star-studded options form both sides of this match. Rashford is the more active shooter, averaging 2.17 shots per match, and he evenly contributes on the scoring with even goals and assists splits. Both are still goal dependent and will have a hard time paying off the asking price without finding the scoresheet.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (DraftKings $6,600, FanDuel $21)
Aston Villa is likely to be without Ollie Watkins and Jack Grealish. They combine for 70% of the club’s overall scoring on the year. Anwar El Ghazi will see a huge usage boost, but time of possession is not the host’s friend in this matchup. Everton’s defense form of late makes it hard to pay the asking price for El Ghazi.
Everton is posting below-average expected goals on the road, at 1.14 per match. Aston Villa is still a strong defensive team, so stacking Everton is not as compelling. Dominic Calvert-Lewin is the more accurate shooter for Everton. His attempts at the net mirror that of Richarlison at around 2.33 apiece, but he has a drastic on target advantage. He needs a goal contribution at the asking price because his floor is nonexistent. The matchup advantage is there, so he is a solid play in GPP.
Richarlison (DraftKings $5,800, FanDuel $17)
Richarlison comes discounted, making him more appealing. He has had trouble finding the back of the net, but the attempts are not slowing down. He also brings the added value of 2.23 drawn fouls per match. In cash games, he is a better play than Calvert-Lewin on the basis of a higher floor and the salary relief. It is important to note that if Gylfi Sigurdsson is out, without Sigurdsson, Richarlison will control the PK duties in a match Everton will likely spend a lot of time inside the penalty area. The aggression of Aston Villa defenders Tyron Mings and Matthew Cash has gotten them in trouble before, as they are league average in PKs allowed.
Other Options: Gylfi Sigurdsson (DraftKings $7,100, FanDuel $14), Alex Iwobi (DraftKings $3,600, FanDuel $9), Anwar El Ghazi (DraftKings $6,900, FanDuel $18), Sadio Mane (DraftKings $8,700, FanDuel $20)
EPL DFS Picks: Defender
Trent Alexander-Arnold (DraftKings $6,700, FanDuel $15)
Lucas Digne (DraftKings $5,200, FanDuel $14)
Luke Shaw (DraftKings $5,900, FanDuel $13)
There are three great plays on defense on this short slate, all three of which handle some level of corner shares. Trent Alexander-Arnold is matchup-proof because he does not need to contribute on the scoring. His 8.09 crosses per match stem heavier on open play, and his aerial accuracy leads to assisted shots at a rate of two per match. Defensively he can add value with 2.28 won tackles/interceptions per match.
Lucas Digne has the set splits, and his output has high upside with time of possession and open-play crosses. He averages 6.96 crosses per match, which increase to over eight per match when removing one of James Rodriguez or Sigurdsson, which is the case today. Luke Shaw handles the corner sets for Manchester United and has the advantage of Harry McGuire and Paul Pogba around the box to connect on his deliveries, which adds to the scoring chances created.
The ownership on all three of these will be massive, but given the offensive scorers on this short slate, one will be left off every lineup in DraftKings specifically. Running all three in cash and GPP is a solid play given the floors and volume upside at discounted asks form Calvert-Lewin, Rashford, Mane, Salah, and Greenwood.
Other Options: Aaron Wan-Bissaka (DraftKings $4,600, FanDuel $14), Ben Godfrey (DraftKings $3,500, FanDuel $12).
Dean Henderson (DraftKings $4,600, FanDuel $9)
Jordan Pickford (DraftKings $5,000, FanDuel $12)
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