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Corner Kick: EPL DFS Picks for Matchday 4 with Cristiano Ronaldo | 9/11/21

Jovanni Vidal



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Welcome to the English Premier League DFS coverage for Saturday, Sept. 11. Here you will find the top EPL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, which consider all aspects of the slate, from Awesemo’s expert projections to pricing to popularity for DFS fantasy soccer. These EPL DFS soccer picks should help you create highly projected lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy soccer tournaments and cash games.

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EPL Odds Report

**All Odds from BetMGM**

Arsenal (-200) vs. Norwich (+525), O/U 3.5

Brentford (+180) vs. Brighton (+165), O/U 2.5

Leicester City (+450) vs. Manchester City (-175), O/U 2.5

Manchester United (-500) vs. Newcastle United (+1,300), O/U 3.5

Southampton (+195) vs. West Ham United (+135), O/U 2.5

Watford (+230) vs. Wolverhampton (+130), O/U 2.5

Chelsea (-350) vs. Aston Villa (+900), O/U 2.5

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Milot Rashica (DraftKings: $5,000, FanDuel: $12)

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (DraftKings: $8,300, FanDuel: $20)

Arsenal gets a chance to right their poor start hosting Norwich. Arsenal allows 2.66 expected goals per match on the season, ranking first. Norwich is allowing two expected goals. The actual goals allowed have both clubs sitting dead last in the EPL with ten and nine allowed on the year. There is plenty of value from some defenders in this matchup. Norwich offers salary relieve with Milot Rashica.

Rashica is handling the indirect set pieces and is active on the wing. He looks to take advantage of a shaky backline from Arsenal and averaged 2.50 shots, three-plus crosses and 2.5 chances created on Werder Bremen. The asking price is low enough for salary relief and easy to double the value with his floor metrics. There is also interest in Teemu Pukki should he be fresh off his international duty work. Pukki has a high motor, with three shots per match across previous two seasons. He provides no floor, but the price looks to be reflecting his previous three matchups against elite clubs.

The home side provides a priced-up Nicolas Pepe and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. Pepe has a floor with expected set shares, and the matchup is favorable. Aubameyang is the question mark. He has really struggled since his contract extension over a year ago. With as many games on the slate, gamers do not need to really target any goal hunter more than around 15%. Aubameyang’s recent performances could lead to low exposure.

Cristiano Ronaldo (DraftKings: $9,200, FanDuel: $23)

In his debut match returning to Manchester United, Cristiano Ronaldo is going to garner massive ownership. Considering tight matchups and uninspiring offenses in other matches, this makes sense. Ronaldo is also priced low. He averaged over five shots per match in six straight seasons, with an on-target accuracy rate of 35% plus. Newcastle allows 2.3 expected goals per match. Manchester United is far more talented and have the highest odds to win by two goals or more. Ronaldo is an all-format play, with volume and a price that does not really suggest a fade.

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The main question is, what to do now with Bruno Fernandes? Ronaldo will poach his shot volume, and Fernandes is priced higher. Fernandes does not handle the indirect set shares unless Luke Shaw is out, and Ronaldo will be on direct free kicks now. The plus matchup will likely see the two paired for an onslaught. Fernandes’ under-exposure makes sense now, so pair Ronaldo with Shaw and any of the wingers alongside.

Ismaila Sarr (DraftKings: $7,900, FanDuel: $16)

There are floor plays from this matchup that look a bit too cheap. Ismaila Sarr takes on a Wolverhampton team that is not an imposing possession club. They allow the second-fewest shots per match at 8.67 but the third most on target. The goals are unlikely to come, but Sarr draws his value with drawn fouls and crossing volume. He averages four drawn per match, leading Watford, and provides 4.33 crosses per match. The on-target accuracy of 50% makes him a consideration on FanDuel where the limited chances are reflecting on the DFS scoreline. Sarr is priced for the lack of goals the Wolves allow, and in GPP he offers the floor with upside at home in a winnable match.

James Ward-Prowse (DraftKings: $8,000, FanDuel: $17)

James Ward-Prowse continues to produce and has dominance over everything on Southampton. The matchup against West Ham is trouble for Southampton, but not Ward-Prowse. West Ham is on a route of outscoring opponents. They will hold possession and have Southampton on the back foot. Ward-Prowse can score with shot volume (2.33 per match), which is not likely the case given West Ham’s above-average defense. He also provides won tackles/interceptions (3.33 per match), which helps keep his club atop the EPL. The floor is built on his indirect chances, which will always be there through game flow, so his average of 8.33 crosses is plenty.

Other Options: Michail Antonio (DraftKings $10,500, FanDuel $21), Ivan Toney (DraftKings $6,300, FanDuel $17), Pascal Gross (DraftKings $8,900, FanDuel $17), Jamie Vardy (DraftKings $7,400, FanDuel $19), Romelu Lukaku (FanDuel $22), Kai Havertz (FanDuel $19)


Kiren Tierney (DraftKings: $5,700, FanDuel: $12)

Luke Shaw and Aaron Cresswell are top options with indirect set shares and possession advantages at the defender spot. They are must-plays in cash games, and at least one in GPP would be the sharp move. Kiren Tierney is in an interesting spot. He is an open-play threat at the wingback spot, and like the rest of Arsenal, he has the plus matchup to rack up DFS production. His previous two poor performances were against far different opponents. He comes in with upside of nine crosses, and he contributes heavily to goal creation.

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Other Options: Max Aarons (DraftKings $3,500, FanDuel $10), Matt Ritchie (DraftKings $5,300, FanDuel $11), Sergi Canos (DraftKings $5,600, FanDuel $17), Aaron Cresswell (DraftKings $5,800, FanDuel $12), Marcos Alonso (FanDuel $15)


Jose Sa (DraftKings: $5,100, FanDuel: $11)

David Raya (DraftKings: $4,800, FanDuel: $10)

Daniel Bachmann (DraftKings: $4,400, FanDuel: $9)

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Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Awesemo to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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