Welcome to our EPL DFS coverage for Dec. 30. Here you’ll find our top EPL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, which consider all aspects of the slate from projection to pricing to popularity across soccer DFS.
EPL Odds Report
Tottenham (-222) vs. Fulham (+600), O/U 2.5
Newcastle (+900) vs. Liverpool (-400), O/U 3.5
EPL DFS Picks DraftKings + FanDuel Lineups | Dec. 30
These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
EPL DFS Picks: Forward/Midfield
Mohamed Salah (DraftKings $11,500 FanDuel $23)
Sadio Mane (DraftKings $10,600 FanDuel $22)
Liverpool’s attack comes in this short slate with a massive price tag. Mohamed Salah ranks third overall in the EPL in shot volume, with 45.5% on-target accuracy. He takes penalties for his club and can contribute with assisted shots and shot creations. Sadio Mane is fourth in the EPL in shot volume and hits target at a 44.2% accuracy clip. He comes in at a slight discount from Salah and adds volume crosses and drawn fouls at 4.28 per game.
Newcastle’s defense is in the middle of the table in home defense. An interesting stat is the discrepancy between Newcastle’s possession and Liverpool’s. Newcastle is the worst team in the EPL in ball touches, while Liverpool is ranked second behind Chelsea. Liverpool is first in touches in the attacking third of the pitch, and they should dominate Newcastle in this match.
Salah’s price is based on scoring, and he might need multiple goal contributions to hit the asking tag. Mane offers a slight floor boost and is scoring at a comparable rate when you disregard the Salah’s penalty kicks. I would jam both players in and find the salary relief elsewhere.
Matt Ritchie (DraftKings $5,100 FanDuel $7)
Callum Wilson (DraftKings $7,200 FanDuel $17)
Matt Ritchie offers a floor play with set-piece duties. He averages 5.9 crosses, 1.75 assisted shots and 2.33 drawn fouls per full-game run. The possession is going to be an issue for Newcastle, but Liverpool has been susceptible to goals on the road. Ritchie is a core fill, while Callum Wilson is a GPP leverage play. Wilson has 45% on-target accuracy on his shots and is unloading two per game. He leads the club in scoring and should garner little ownership, even on a two-gamer. If Wilson sits, you can slot in Joelinton or Andy Carroll for a significant price discount to fit in another big-scoring name.
Harry Kane (DraftKings $9,600 FanDuel $20)
Tanguy Ndombele (DraftKings $5,300 FanDuel $9)
Fulham’s road defense ranks slightly below average among EPL teams. Harry Kane ranks second in the EPL in shot volume and has an on-target accuracy clip of 37%. He can score and distribute, posting more assists than goals on the year. With 73% goal contribution and penalty duties, you are getting Kane at a significant discount from the Liverpool attack.
Tanguy Ndombele is not as typical an offensive threat as his Tottenham teammates. His price is worth the consideration, as is his role as the center attacking midfielder. He can draw fouls and has an average 1.3 shots/assisted shots per game. His minutes are a concern, so I would reserve him to a GPP play, and the upside is that he can contribute on the scoresheet. Another consideration is Son Heung-Min, who is a high-goal-contribution threat, but at the price range I would drop to Kane or jump to Liverpool. If Erik Lamela is in, he is a play in all formats based on his free asking price and offensive output in short-game runs.
Other Options: Ademola Lookman (DraftKings $7,000, FanDuel $16), Ivan Cavaleiro (DraftKings $5,900, FanDuel $15), Roberto Firmino (DraftKings $8,400, FanDuel $19).
EPL DFS Picks: Defender
Andrew Robertson (DraftKings $7,800 FanDuel $15)
Antonee Robinson (DraftKings $4,600 FanDuel $12)
The theme continues of fitting in Liverpool. Andrew Robertson is too involved in the offensive attack to be ignored. He averages 8.53 crosses and 2.26 shots/assisted shots per game. The upside is in his teammates connecting on his deliveries, which is happening in 33% of his appearances on average.
Antonee Robinson comes at a discount when considering his output. He averages 4.08 crosses and 2.66 interceptions/won tackles per game. His defensive attributes should see a bump given the counter long balls Tottenham likes to play. His offense sees a couple assisted shots, and his asking price should be hit with relative ease.
Other Options: Sergio Aurier (DraftKings $5,900, FanDuel $14), Eric Dier (DraftKings $3,400, FanDuel $10).
Alphonse Areola (DraftKings $3,900 FanDuel $8)
Karl Darlow (DraftKings $3,700 FanDuel $7)
Related EPL Content
- VIDEO: The EPL DFS Strategy Show with Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker and Jovanni Vidal
- EPL Soccer Projections for DraftKings
- EPL Soccer Projections for FanDuel
Looking for more EPL DFS picks content? We have loads of articles, data, cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo EPL home page. Just click HERE.