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Corner Kick: UCL DFS Picks for Group Stage with Mohamed Salah | 9/15/21

Jovanni Vidal



DraftKings FanDuel EPL DFS Picks FanDuel free expert rankings projections Group Stge Mohamed Salah cheat sheet for daily fantasy soccer lineups optimal optimizer

Welcome to the UEFA Champions League DFS coverage for Wednesday, Sept. 15. Here you will find the top UCL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, which consider all aspects of the slate, from Awesemo’s expert projections to pricing to popularity for DFS fantasy soccer. These UCL DFS soccer picks should help you create highly projected lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy soccer tournaments and cash games.

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UCL Odds Report

**All Odds from BetMGM**

Manchester City (-350) vs. RB Lepzig (+800), O/U 2.5

Clubb Brugge (+1,100) vs. Paris Saint-Germain (-450), O/U 3.5

Sporting CP (+190) vs. Ajax (+145), O/U 2.5

Inter Milan (+145) vs. Real Madrid (+180), O/U 2.5

Atletico Madrid (-160) vs. FC  Porto (+620), O/U 2.5

Liverpool (-225) vs. AC Milan (+525), O/U 2.5

DraftKings & FanDuel UCL DFS Picks Today


Mohamed Salah (DraftKings: $9,500, FanDuel: $22)

Diogo Jota (DraftKings: $7,500, FanDuel: $20)

Liverpool have returned to championship form. They host AC Milan to start their group stage run in Champions League play. Liverpool have a +7.5 expected goals difference and 11.7 expected goals in four EPL matches. They sit atop the EPL and have average 25 shots per match with 7 on target. Milan have allowed 3.33 shots on target in the Serie A, with a notable clean sheet coming against Lazio. The home-field advantage sits with Liverpool and I expect their offense to keep rolling along.

Mohamed Salah provides a floor metric with shot volume and created shots to his teammates. He does not handle the indirect free kicks but does take PKs for the hosts. He is averaging 0.75 goals per match in a small sample and averaged 0.60 across three seasons. His shot volume sits north of 3.5 in that stretch of time with an on-target accuracy of around 40%. Salah’s created chances mimic the shot volume around 3.5 per match making the asking price still too low despite a great floor.

At center forward for the Reds is Diogo Jota. The absence of Roberto Firmino eases the potential early sub for Jota and his ask seems low. The forwards for Liverpool complement each other with chances and Jota is a cheaper way to get the goal contributions. Jota averages 0.70 goals per match in his limited minutes with Liverpool and averaged 3.68 shots per match. Salah has the PK sets but Jota sits at a considerable discount when you consider there similar offensive numbers. In GPP, you can add Sadio Mane, who is no stranger to the scoresheet with current form of 5.25 shots per match and four created chances. In cash games, it is Salah over Mane for me, with real consideration for Jota.

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Noah Lang (DraftKings: $3,500, FanDuel: $16)

Charles De Ketelaere (DraftKings: $4,000, FanDuel: $15)

Paris Saint-Germain brings all their riches to Belgium against Clubb Brugge. Paris Saint-Germain comes in as a massive favorite, as they should with Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Neymar. The French side proves time after time that their is enough to go around so those three will garner plenty of ownership, except Mbappe. Messi and Neymar are both priced as set piece monopoly and PK sets. Against a weaker side, I would not mind it but I think Brugge are better than the odds suggest. The home field and the core players they posses could make this match not so one-sided.

The set shares for Brugge reside with Ruud Vormer and Hans Vanaken. Both are viable options, even in cash, for the near-minimum asking price with set shares. The players that are a completely mispriced on DraftKings are Noah Lang and Charles De Ketelaere. Now, Paris Saint-Germain likely wins this match 3-1, but these players from Brugge are champions of their respective Jupiter Pro League. A league where goals come in bunches. The four mentioned above combine for 73% of Club Brugge’s overall scoring. They complement one another with as many assists between the four as goals. De Ketelaere averages 3.48 shots per match. Vormer sits with 3.01 shots per match and 8.81 crosses. Lang is free and averages 2.21 shots with 1.76 drawn fouls and a goal contribution in each match he has started this season.

Again, these metrics come against a lower-tier league. Paris Saint-Germain has a number of new faces with offense explosiveness. They have allowed multi-goal matches against two weaker Ligue 1 sides in Brest and Strasbourg. A Brugge stack does not make any sense, but the punt of any of these four gets you the onslaughts elsewhere, including the other side of the pitch. On FanDuel, they are not priced like a joke.

Dusan Tadic (DraftKings: $8,900, FanDuel: $19)

Sporting CP have lost one match in their last 20. They do allow goals when facing clubs of equal value like Benfica and FC Porto. Ajax are the kings of Netherlands and rack up the scoresheet match after match. They have a tendency to allow goals as well. Both clubs posses firepower and this could be a close high-paced match.

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Dusan Tadic has set piece monopoly for Ajax and handles the PK. He averages 0.49 goals per match across three seasons and 0.6 assists. He has the highest floor, alongside a defender mentioned below with 10 crosses per match across two seasons. Tadic is a core play in all formats. His assists dominance means someone would have to be on the receiving end. Sebastian Haller has done well thus far converting for Ajax. He leads the club in goals and averages 3.67 shots per match since his arrival a year ago. His on target accuracy rate of 49% is promising for both DraftKigs and FanDuel. The asking price leaves no room for error should Haller fail to convert, making him a GPP option.

Karim Benzema (DraftKings: $8,800, FanDuel: $22)

Eden Hazard (DraftKings: $6,000, FanDuel: $16)

Real Madrid and Inter Milan have a knack for meeting up on the big stage. In last season’s Champions League, Madrid were able to defeat Inter twice 3-2 and 2-0. Inter has since lost their most potent weapon in Romelu Lukaku and the explosive wingback in Achraf Hakimi. The odds have Inter as a slight favorite at +138. Madrid has found an increased offensive success with a health Eden Hazard. He looks to handle the set shares and can draw fouls and create chances to surpass this ask with just his floor.

Karim Benzema is loosing his youth but not his form, as he already has posted five goals for Madrid on this young season. He handles the PK and averages 3.50 shots per match across three consecutive seasons. He does well to distribute with 3.40 scoring chances created across that same stretch and has posted three consecutive 20-plus goal seasons. He is known to deliver on the big stage and todays match makes him a great option with expected low ownership given the highly favored Paris Saint-Germain, Manchester City and Liverpool sides.

Other Options: Lionel Messi (DraftKings $11,000, FanDuel $24), Sergio Oliviera (DraftKings $5,800, FanDuel $15), Neymar (DraftKings $10,000, FanDuel $22), Antoine Griezmann (DraftKings $7,900, FanDuel $19).


Trent Alexander-Arnold (DraftKings: $8,000, FanDuel: $15)

Trent Alexander-Arnold comes in priced appropriately. He handles indirect sets on his side and direct free kicks for Liverpool. His open play volume is higher on the crosses than many set piece men on other clubs. He averages 10.25 crosses per match and seven scoring chances created. On defense, he has improved form 3.25 won tackles and interceptions to almost four. The ask seems hard to fit for the Liverpool wingback, but a mix of a set piece man form Club Brugge or F Porto will free up the space to get him in without compromising the Messi, Tadic and Griezmann’s of the world.

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Other Options: Nicola Tagliafico (DraftKings $4,700, FanDuel $8), Daniel Carvajal (DraftKings $4,500 FanDuel $11), Angelino (DraftKings $4,900, FanDuel $12).


Thibault Courtois (DraftKings: $4,700, FanDuel: $9)

Simon Mignolet (DraftKings: $3,600, FanDuel: $6)

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Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Awesemo to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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