Welcome to EPL DFS for Oct. 19. Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. EPL teams will resume back to standard three-max substitutes per game, which had been changed to five during the return to play.
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EPL Odds Report
West Bromwich (+135) vs. Burnley (+210), O/U 2.5
Leeds United (+140) vs. Wolverhampton (+200), O/U 3.5
The EPL DFS Breakdown
These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
Forward/Midfield Picks
Dwight McNeil (DraftKings $8,300 FanDuel $12)
Chris Wood (DraftKings $7,400 FanDuel $18)
This is an interesting spot for Burnley, who comes in as a sizeable underdog. They are currently trailing Aston Villa for the league lead in expected goals allowed of 4.0. Burnley is taking on a West Brom team that ranks worst in the EPL with an expected goals against of 9.0. The price feels too low on a two-gamer for Dwight McNeil and Chris Wood. McNeil leads the club in crossing volume and splits the corner pieces with Ashley Westwood. He can do a bit of everything for his club and offers a solid floor built off seven crosses, 1.33 shots and 1.3 fouls drawn per game. I like him to get his attempts going in this plus matchup, as he finished third on the team in shot volume a season ago with 29.2% on-target accuracy.
Wood led the club in shot volume and overall scoring a season ago. He has found the back of the net just once so far this young season but continues to shoot, and West Brom has been bleeding goals all year, allowing 3.25 a game. You can also get a slight discount on Jay Rodriguez, who looks to be fit to return and provides another scoring threat for the club.
Coming back on the other side, Karlan Grant provides cheap GPP option — especially on FanDuel — with the likely absence of Callum Robinson, who is expected to miss the game.
Raul Jimenez (DraftKings $9,500 FanDuel $21)
Pedro Neto (DraftKings $8,500 FanDuel $14)
Patrick Bamford (DraftKings $7,100 FanDuel $22)
Wolverhampton have a plus match up in this one against Leeds United, who have allowed the fourth most expected goals against in the EPL at 8.2. Raul Jimenez continues his shooting barrage on opposing keepers averaging 3.25 shots per game with an on target accuracy clip of 38%. There could be an advantage to coming in under the field on him considering his goal or bust status, but the threat of Brace is always a risk.
Pedro Neto comes at a discount from Jimenez and Adama Traore. He takes corner sets for his club along with Joao Moutinho. Neto is contributing throughout the offensive attack with two assisted shots, four crosses and 1.75 shots per game.
On the comeback, I like Patrick Bamford. The Wolves’ offense this season has come at the expense of the defense. They are allowing 1.75 goals a game, with clean sheets coming against Sheffield United, who does not score goals, and Fulham. Rui Patricio is an exceptional keeper, but the defense allows chances, and Bamford can make teams pay for it. Bamford has scored in every game but one on the year and is averaging 2.75 shots per game. Kalvin Phillips also provides a floor-play option, and Jack Harrison brings upside on the wing counter for GPP plays.
Other Options: Kalvin Phillips (DraftKings $7,600, FanDuel $14), Daniel Podence (DraftKings $7,800, FanDuel $17), Karlan Grant (DraftKings $6,600, FanDuel $10), Mateusz Klich (DraftKings $6,100, FanDuel $16), Matheus Pereira (DraftKings $9,000, FanDuel $16).
Defender Picks
Charlie Taylor (DraftKings $5,500 FanDuel $9)
Stuart Dallas (DraftKings $5,600 FanDuel $10)
Charlie Taylor comes at a high asking prize. His activity on the wing makes him a core play for me. Taylor is averaging five crosses and 1.66 fouls drawn per game. Stuart Dallas is also an active wingback that settles in on the attack most of the games. He averages two crosses, 2.25 fouls drawn and four tackles won/interceptions per game.
Other Options: Luke Ayling (DraftKings $5,200, FanDuel $14), Gabriel Magalhaes (DraftKings $3,200, FanDuel $14), Dara O’Shea (DraftKings $3,600, FanDuel $8), Nelson Semedo (DraftKings $4,600, FanDuel $8).
Goalkeeper Picks
Nick Pope (DraftKings $4,500 FanDuel $8)
Rui Patricio (DraftKings $4,700 FanDuel $9)
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