EPL DFS Picks: Chelsea and Joao Felix are Top Plays

The EPL Main slate offers a rare six gamer on DraftKings. The pressing favorite is Chelsea at home at -250 on the money line. Manchester City is always in play regardless of the starting eleven. Chelsea offers a great play, while Wolverhampton and Brighton could be sneaky stacking options. Let’s take a look at the EPL DFS picks and find where it makes sense to spend up.

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EPL DFS Predictions & Picks


Joao Felix (DraftKings: $9,200; FanDuel: $21)

Erling Haaland (DraftKings: $9,400; FanDuel: $24)

Chelsea and Manchester City will receive no shortage of ownership. Chelsea takes on Southampton at home. Southampton is one of the better road defenses in the EPL, allowing an expected goals against of 1.40 per match. They allow a mid tier ranked shots allowed per match at 12.40 and above average corner sets at 5.09 per match. This sets up an advantageous match up for Joao Felix, who has been allowed to take indirect sets since arriving at Chelsea. Felix averages 5.63 crosses per match and an offensive mark of 5.63 shots with 66% on target rate. The pieces around Chelsea include Kai Havertz and Noni Madueke who help press on the wing. Felix is the core play and pairing him with Enzo Fernandez is a way to leverage in GPP’s rather than his wingers alongside.

Manchester City goes on the road to take on Nottingham Forest. The upcoming UCL match will not deter the road side from going for all three points. If starters come out early to rest for the big match mid week it will be because the damage has been done and they have broken for a number of goals. Nottingham Forest allows around a goal a match at home, but no side can keep Manchester City off the score sheet and Erling Haaland is the club’s leading scorer. Haaland and teammate Kevin De Bruyne always garner heavy ownership and for good reason. Haaland averages 3.76 shots per match with 51% on target rate and over a goal per match. If any member of the Manchester City goes under owned it could be Phil Foden. Jack Grealish might not see the start with leaving the mid week match against Arsenal early. Foden would slot into the winger role and has a floor with indirect sets and 2.33 shots per match to pair with 4.58 scoring chances created.

The choice between Felix or Haaland is the tough choice. Both are forward only on DraftKings and sit above $9,000. They occupy the top two spots in the Stokastic EPL projections and forcing both into a lineup is one way to go. Haaland scorers for fun, while Felix has a significant advantage on the floor. While their is no data to support who takes the Chelsea PK now that Mount finds himself on the bench and Jorginho has departed, Felix could be in line to handle those should one occur. Felix is the choice if willing to sacrifice one.

Adama Traore (DraftKings: $6,900; FanDuel: $11)

Alex Iwobi (DraftKings: $5,700; FanDuel: $15)

Wolverhampton needs a spark for a lack luster offense. Bournemouth is the worst road defense in the EPL allowing an expected goals of 2.05 per match and an actual mark of 2.99 goals o the road. The striker up top for Wolverhampton in Matheus Cunha comes in cheap on the salary. His minutes are a concern and his lack of production in his starting time still makes it hard to roster him with any confidence. Pablo Sarabia has been inconsistent in his short time with his new club but history tells he has the touch to contribute on the scoring that can be expected in this plus match up. Adama Traore fancies his chances and has a solid floor with 1.80 drawn fouls, 1.30 shots and 5.40 crosses per match. His price tag is high and his GPP upside will not be found without a goal contribution. The ownership will not be high on the winger and the match up calls for a few shares.

Their needs to be a discussion on the salary relief. Their is no other way to jam Felix and Haaland into a single line. Alex Iwobi sits as a forward on DraftKings, which will have him overlooked as he currently projects for 12.25% ownership while holding a value of 1.88 according to the Stokastic EPL projections. Everton take on Leeds in battle to move above relegation. Gordon has departed and Demarai Gray is expected out of the starting eleven again. Iwobi will split sets with Dwight McNeil and comes discounted from his teammate on the asking price. He averages 2.48 scoring chances per match which will see a significant up tick with Gray out of the lineup as will the attempts at target. The real punt option for GPP’s under $5,000 is Amadou Onana who, under Dykes reign in Everton, sees above two shots per match and 4.08 won tackles and interceptions and 2.13 drawn fouls per match.

Other Options: James Ward-Prowse (DraftKings: $6,800; FanDuel: $15); Jack Harrison (DraftKings: $6,900; FanDuel: $14); Solly March (DraftKings: $8,100; FanDuel: $19), Matias Jensen (DraftKings: $6,100; FanDuel: $12)

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Luke Ayling (DraftKings: $4,700; FanDuel: $9)

Craig Dawson (DraftKings: $3,700; FanDuel: $11)

The defender position is headlined by Reece James. He is active on the offensive end and has the plus match up along with his Chelsea teammates. The appearance of a few subsitude wingers for Manchester City in the form of Nathan Ake or Rico Lewis will garner ownerhsip based on the near min prices the two carry. A stable of the Leeds United defense is captain Luke Ayling. Ayling can score in a number of ways through offense or defense. He will continue to push up on the wing with Pascal Stuijk nursing a head injury. If Struijk returns to the starting eleven he is by far the best play at a mis priced DraftKings salary of $2,600. Ayling averages 1.03 shots per match and 5.34 won tackles and interceptions. His 1.93 drawn fouls per match more than make up for 0.80 fouls committed per match.

Wolverhampton has an explosive winger in Rayan Ait Nouri. Their center back in Craig Dawson will draw no ownership sitting at an elevated $3,700 from the usual sub $3,000 range. He is a pure punt option but the attacking force on headers and his on target accuracy can see him find the back of the net against the lack of defense Bournemouth sports. Other center backs to consider for aerial attacking accuracy are James Tarkowski of Everton and Ben Mee of Brentford.

Other Options: Kenny Tete (DraftKings: $5,100; FanDuel: $13); Maximillian Wober (DraftKings: $3,700; FanDuel: $10)


Kepa Arrizabalaga (DraftKings: $5,800; FanDuel: $14)

Jose Sa (DraftKings: $5,600; FanDuel: $13)

Jovanni Vidal
Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Stokastic to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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