EPL DFS Picks: Harry Kane Leads Unfadable Tottenham Hotspur (March 11)

The EPL DFS main slate returns to a four-game main slate. Tottenham is a heavy favorite at home, taking on Nottingham Forest. The ownership will be there for Harry Kane and company. Heung-Min Son should return to the higher floor of a year ago with a sidelined Ivan Perisic. The pieces to attack come from slight favorites in Chelsea and Brighton, while value one-offs look solid from the Everton-Brentford match. Let’s take a look at the EPL DFS picks and find where it makes sense to spend up.

Massachusetts! Your First bet is On Caesars - up to $1,500!

The legal gambling age is 21+ in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER

EPL DFS Picks & Predictions Today | March 11

Forwards/Midfield

Solly March (DraftKings: $8,300)

Alexis Mac Allister (DraftKings: $7,200)

Leeds United continues to stave off relegation. The defense has kept it in games, allowing just two or fewer goals in seven of its last nine matches, with two clean sheets. The clean sheets came against Brentford and Southampton, who are not exactly dangerous teams on the road. Leeds allows 1.40 expected goals per match at home, so chances will be there for visiting Brighton. The actual goals allowed would caution against a full three-man-plus-Brighton stack, but a one-off or pairing is enough.

Brighton is inside the top 5 offensively on the road, with 1.53 expected goals per match. The actual goals scored on the road rank third best in the EPL. It has been held scoreless once in its previous 12 outings, with eight of those matches seeing two-plus goals. The scoring for the Brighton attack is spread out, with Pascal Gross, Alexis Mac Allister and Kaoru Mitoma sharing the team lead with six goals apiece. Gross and Mitoma will garner ownership from the favorable attacking team in GPPs, but the shot volume is concerning. Mitoma has no floor without a goal, and he has taken one or fewer shots in four of the last five matches. Gross has a floor due to 3.82 scoring chances created and 6.86 crosses per match. He is a solid pairing option for the discounted salary with a Tottenham stack. Solly March provides a solid floor with upside in his goal contributions.

March contributes on 23% of Brighton’s scoring while leading the club in scoring chances created with 4.18. His 2.37 shots per match also top the team sheet. March is the GPP player of choice since the floors between him and Gross are the same. The nearly $1,000 discount on the salary for Gross will have March’s ownership drop significantly, and his attempts at the net offer higher upside, while Gross has not attempted more than one shot per match since late October of last year.

The goal-hunting option is Alexis Mac Allister. He handles the penalties and is goal dependent, with a salary similar to Gross and Mitoma. In his last eight outings, Mac Allister has attempted 3.12 shots per match on average. No one on the club is firing more. His on-target rate in that stretch is 48%, which is higher than his season mark of 38%. The scoring upside from increased shot volume and on-target accuracy is not reflected in his price tag. Mac Allister does have a low floor, so he is a GPP-only play.

Joao Felix (DraftKings: $6,800)

Kai Havertz (DraftKings: $5,900)

Chelsea goes on the road to take on Leicester City. While Chelsea has seen roster adjustments back and forth over the past year-plus, Leicester has stayed consistent. This Leicester team has a big issue defending, and Chelsea recorded two goals in two of the last three encounters between the teams. On paper, both teams are average in terms of home/away splits. Leicester City’s defense allows 1.19 expected goals per match at home, while Chelsea gets 1.09 expected goals on the road. Goals might be at a premium here, and the hunting options for the road team are priced low enough for GPP chances. In cash, the only standouts are James Maddison from Leicester City and the top defender option below from Chelsea.

The attacking pieces for Chelsea are Joao Felix and Kai Havertz. There is a case for Raheem Sterling, who has found the back of the net with frequency across all competitions in recent form. His asking prices will cost a floor piece, and the salary range puts him in a mix-and-match GPP pool with the Brighton attackers mentioned above. Felix is attempting 3.40 shots per match, and the mix of open-play crossing volume and drawn fouls build a decent floor respective to the dropped salary to under $7,000.

Havertz comes in cheap enough that no goal contribution does not destroy lineups. His attempts have dropped in recent run, but he has replaced it with created chances on an almost even exchange. If Chelsea finds the back of the net, Havertz is a solid flier to take. His 42% on-target rate trails only Felix’s 47% on the team sheet, and he creates 2.15 scoring chances. This mark is less than one scoring chance below Sterling’s, with a salary $1,200 cheaper.

Harry Kane (DraftKings: $9,700)

Matias Jensen (DraftKings: $6,400)

Tottenham is a heavy favorite at home and is hard to fade. Harry Kane is the real consistent man for the Spurs. Tottenham need all 3 points, and Kane will be pushing for as many attempts as it takes to secure the victory. Nottingham Forest allows 1.80 expected goals per match on the road, good for fourth worst in the EPL. The Spurs are not scoring as they did a season ago, but everything flows through Kane. Kane contributes on 45% of the club’s scoring, and his 3.45 shots per match hit target at a 41.6% accuracy clip. His 3.64 scoring chances created per match trail only Heung-Min Son at 3.83. Kane is the top pay-up option, and it is very possible he is the only goal scorer on a closely matched four-game slate.

Everton and Brentford are evenly matched only because Everton is at home. The cash option from this match is Dwight McNeil. Despite Demarai Gray returning to the starting 11, McNeil still has now taken command of the set shares. His open-play crossing volume alone will build one of the highest floors on the slate. From Brentford, Ivan Toney makes a leverage GPP play, while Matias Jensen is a cash play. His floor is high enough to pay off the price, with 5.15 crosses per match and a team-leading 3.30 scoring chances created. Jensen also leads the team defensively, with 3.50 won tackles/interceptions in the midfield.

Other Options: Bryan Mbeumo (DraftKings: $7,200); Alex Iwobi (DraftKings: $7,000); Enzo Fernandez (DraftKings: $5,900), Jack Harrison (DraftKings: $6,200)

Bet $100 and Get $100 in Bet Credits from WynnBET!

The legal gambling age is 21+ in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER

Defender

Ben Chilwell (DraftKings: $6,500)

Chelsea’s best floor play is wing back Ben Chilwell. He handles a large portion of set shares and sees an average of six crosses per match and 3.33 won tackles/interceptions since returning to the starting eleven. Leicester City knows how to score goals, but Chelsea has been a solid defense and the clean sheet bonus is a possibility for Chilwell and keeper Kepa Arrizabalaga. Chelsea has five clean sheets in its previous nine matches and has held far better offensive teams like Dortmund, Manchester City and Liverpool to one of fewer goals in recent matches.

Other Options: Emerson Royal (DraftKings: $5,800); Joel Veltman (DraftKings: $3,600)

Goalkeeper

Kepa Arrizabalaga (DraftKings: $5,200)

Jason Steele (DraftKings: $5,300)

Editor Note: Check out the above live show, The Odds Shop, Monday-Friday at 4 PM Eastern to learn about industry-leading tools, today’s best value plays and so much more!

Author
Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Stokastic to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

Stokastic +

Premium Data and Tools
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims MLB
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Top Stack %s
MLB Data Central
FREE DATA
SoRare MLB Rankings
DraftKings Night Owl
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
MLB Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
MLB Discord Server
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Ownership Projections
PREMIUM TOOLS
Fantasy Cruncher (ADD-ON)
NHL Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
NHL Discord Server
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims PGA
PREMIUM DATA
Ownership Projections
Top Golfers Tool
PGA Tournament Models
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
PGA Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
PGA Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Drivers Tool
NASCAR Discord Server
NASCAR Fantasy Cruncher
USFL Projections
USFL Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Fighters Tool
MMA Discord Server
MMA Fantasy Cruncher
NFL Betting Tools
Stokastic Discord Server
Best Ball
Best Ball Rankings
Best Ball Stat Projections
Stokastic Discord Server
Season Long Fantasy (Coming Soon)

DFS Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox

Stokastic.com - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics

Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.