EPL DFS Picks: Manchester City Core DraftKings and FanDuel Plays

The EPL slate for Saturday sees four matches on DraftKings and five on FanDuel, including what looks to be a shootout in Everton welcoming Leicester City. For the main slate, the presence of Manchester City will draw ownership, so there are many ways to get different in Cash and GPP stacks. Brentford offers a value play for the ages and don’t write off the riding high Fulham team as a massive underdog against Manchester City. Leeds United are in a prime home spot against Bournemouth.

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DraftKings & FanDuel EPL DFS Picks Today 11/5

Forwards/Midfielders

Erling Haaland (DraftKings: $11,900, FanDuel: $24)

Kevin De Bruyne (DraftKings: $9,900, FanDuel: $21)

Manchester City is well rested from keeping virtually all the main pieces off the pitch in their midweek UCL battle. They take on a Fulham team that is riding with confidence in the EPL. Fulham has a flaw, and it is the defense. They allow the fourth most expected goals in the EPL on the road at 1.96 per match. Manchester City is the second ranked offense in the EPL with a home mark of 2.41 expected goals per match.

Manchester City hold a solid defensive mark at home as well, but Fulham has yet to be shut out on the road this season. The Manchester City attack justifies the ownership it will garner and a one-off piece from the Fulham attack on the comeback offers leverage.

Erling Haaland has an injury that kept him out according to manager Pep. His position in the starting 11 will answer any doubts of whether he is ready to go. The Brace upside is almost feeling like a floor for him, and the shot volume stands at over four per match. His penalty sets make one goal in the match an almost guarantee. The issue is not if he scores it is if he scores more than one. That is what is needed, as there are worse road teams on this slate which offer scoring upside to discounted strikers from other teams.

Time of possession is always Manchester City’s friend and Phil Foden and Kevin De Bruyne benefit from it with set share splits and open play volume. They made a living on the early season metrics by crossing to Haaland and creating chances. They split the top of the team sheet in crossing volume and created chances with De Bruyne leading the way at north of nine crosses per match and 6.51 created chances. The slight bump in asking price for Foden due to the goal scoring he has shown makes pivoting to De Bruyne a GPP play. In cash all three will draw north of 50% ownership and taking two of them would make sense without jeopardizing the floor plays around the slate.

Fulham is going to be unowned, as they are +1400 dogs on the money line. There are three attackers that are posting impressive shot volume. Alexsandar Mitrovic is having a personal best scoring year in the EPL. He has shot volume, but the attempts should see a decline without the possession. Andreas Perriera handles the set shares and offers drawn fouls to keep a safe floor. He is not shy to take his chances at the net, but the accuracy does hurt his chances of scoring. Willian has been a revelation returning to the EPL. Created chances and shot attempts are in no short supply with him. The prices of the three attackers are not going to have them grade out well, as they have not come down from the successful run of play the trio have enjoyed playing together. There are better spots but a one off is all you need in a matchup that looks like an uphill climb at best.

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Bryan Mbueno (DraftKings: $6,200, FanDuel $15)

Brenden Aaronson (DraftKings: $6,300, FanDuel $14)

Nottingham Forest and Brentford meet in a match that is a must win for both clubs. Forest has played well against tougher competition but seems to falter in matches they should be competitive in. Brentford are dealing with issues of their own which include the absence of Ivan Toney and Mathias Jensen.

A season ago we saw Vitaly Janelt handles set shares with Jensen out. With Damsgaard coming in early for Jensen a week ago and Janelt still on the pitch it was Bryan Mbueno that delivered the corners. There is no reason things will change on his half of the pitch and the shot volume and penalties he inherits from an injured Toney make him the top value play on DraftKings at 2.96 and a projection of 18.36 according to the Stokastic EPL projections. Janelt still sees an uptick in metrics and Daamsgaard is likely to handle indirect sets opposite the pitch should he see the starting 11.

Leeds has the best home matchup on the slate against Bournemouth. Bournemouth rank dead last in the EPL in expected goals allowed on the road at 2.13. Leeds is below average offensively at home, but they are playing for the job security of their manager and that served them well on the road against Liverpool a week ago. At home they offer upside plays that are not as high on the asking price as they should be. Rodrigo has led the team in scoring and handles the penalties. He averages 4.13 shots per match which tower over the rest of the club and the team is built to feed the striker up top as evident in the attempts by Patrik Bamford when Rodrigo was out of the lineup.

The pieces around are split on the set shares between Jack Harrison and Brenden Aaronson. Aaronson is preferred not because of an advantage on any metric but the price. Manchester City is still the target of choice and fitting in floor plays at lower cost is a priority. The pure punt salary relief on the attack for Leeds with goal contribution upside is Crysencio Summerville. Small sample but the drawn fouls and two goal contributions make the sub $5,000 asking price worth a one off if looking to fully stack the Manchester City onslaught play.

Other Options: Kieffer Moore (DraftKings: $6,700, FanDuel $14), Solly March (DraftKings: $7,300, FanDuel $12).

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Defender

Pascal Struijk (DraftKings: $4,800, FanDuel $13)

Bournemouth’s defense can be exposed as mentioned above. The wingbacks for Leeds love to push up the pitch and Pascal Struijk does well around the injury stint to deliver open play attempts. The mix of created chances and open play crosses do not offer upside but the defensive metrics stand at 5.05 won tackles and interceptions per match. The Leeds attack can get caught off guard, and Struijk has done well to recover on a team that will offer above average opportunity against Marcus Tavernier from Bournemouth.

Other Options: Neco Williams (DraftKings: $5,500, FanDuel $11), Hugo Bueno (DraftKings: $5,100, FanDuel $10).

Goalkeepers

Illan Meslier (DraftKings: $5,500, FanDuel $12)

Robert Sanchez (DraftKings: $5,100, FanDuel $11)

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Author
Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Stokastic to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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