The EPL DFS main slate on has four matches, with one massive favorite. Manchester City will come with no shortage of ownership, but can it pay off the increased salary? Aston Villa and Crystal Palace offer value on the road. Tottenham has questions on defense, but Harry Kane keeps scoring. Let’s take a look at our best EPL DFS picks and find where it makes sense to spend up.
EPL DFS Picks & Predictions
EPL DFS Picks For Forwards/Midfield
Erling Haaland (DraftKings: $11,300)
Phil Foden (DraftKings: $10,300)
Two strikers from Manchester City should be in every lineup. It scores at will and has a plus matchup against Leeds United, who allows 1.74 expected goals per match and the third-most actual goals on the road in the EPL, with 2.11 per match. Leeds allows the sixth-most shots on target in the EPL at 4.64 per match and now takes on Manchester City, who produces the second-most per match.
EPL goal leader Erling Haaland headlines Manchester City’s attack. He scores over a goal per start and averages 3.65 shots per match. The one concern if Haaland starts is how long he will run, with an important midweek match upcoming for Manchester City in the Champions League. Should Haaland sit this match out, Julian Alvarez is an easy enough pivot for a discount. Alvarez averages 2.94 shots per match and mirrors the 48.6% on-target rate of Haaland. The floor play for Manchester City is Riyad Mahrez, who has set shares and direct attempts at target.
Jack Grealish is expected to be out for Manchester City, and if he does get the nod, he has drawn fouls, open-play crossing volume and created chances. Phil Foden is an interesting core play. He is priced high and will look to split the set shares with Mahrez. Foden has been very productive in his limited runs on the year. He averages 2.33 shots per match and a 56.8% on-target rate. His floor is built on 4.97 crosses and 4.77 created scoring chances per contest. The matchup favors Foden, and given the upcoming Champions League match, he should run the length of the match given the start.
Ollie Watkins (DraftKings: $7,700)
Wilfried Zaha (DraftKings: $8,000)
Aston Villa goes on the road to take on Wolverhampton. The Wolves have a strong defense, but Aston Villa has not been shut out since its previous match against Manchester United. The price on lead attacker Ollie Watkins has fallen to that of goal-hunting upside. Watkins leads the club in scoring and has no issues firing at will. Each of the previous three matches between Aston Villa and Wolverhampton has seen both sides score, and Watkins accounts for 45% of the club’s scoring. The accuracy on target is there at 53% for Watkins, and the scoring upside makes him a GPP play with little floor for cash considering his sub-2.80 shots per match.
Tottenham has abandoned all defense and is allowing over two goals per match in four consecutive matches. Crystal Palace is not a top offense like Liverpool, Manchester United and Newcastle, but Tottenham cannot keep anyone off the score sheet. Michel Olise is a floor play for Crystal Palace, and the salary has dropped from consecutive weeks at over $9,000. He averages 7.74 crosses and 4.55 created scoring chances per match. Wilfried Zaha is the goal-hunting option in GPPs. Zaha comes in discounted from Eze and has a higher floor, with the drawn foul rate of over three per match. He leads the club in shot volume at 2.51 per match, and he averages 3.39 created chances per match. Zaha and Watkins both provide leverage in GPPs, with attention in the attacking spot gravitating to the Manchester City attack and off of Harry Kane.
The Spurs are trending in the wrong direction, and Kane continues to do his part to keep them afloat. He accounts for 45% of the club’s scoring and averages 3.40 shots per match. Kane draws 1.45 fouls per match and creates 3.64 scoring chances, which trails only Heung-Min Son. Son is a GPP pairing with Kane due to lack of floor, but he has scoring upside and averages three shots per match over the last five. In that run, Son has managed to find the back of the net in four of five. In GPPs, the pairing of Son and Kane will not come cheap but offers instant leverage in a matchup against a Crystal Palace side that has allowed a goal and over 1.10 expected goals in four of its previous five road outings.
Other Options: Dominic Solanke (DraftKings: $7,600); N’Golo Kante (DraftKings: $3,900); John McGinn (DraftKings: $5,500), Kai Havertz (DraftKings: $7,000).
EPL DFS Picks For Defender
Pedro Porro (DraftKings: $6,600)
The defender spot is worth a punt, with not a ton of floor or scoring upside options. The usual suspects are Ben Chilwell and Pedro Porro. Porro is the best pay-up option because he has the floor, with indirect set shares and the willingness to fire at the net. His defensive metrics lead to a number of fouls, and the speed of Crystal Palace will test his average of 3.26 won tackles/interceptions per match. The offensive metrics will offset the committed fouls, and he averages 3.05 created scoring chances per match. His floor is 5.26 crosses per match and his increased set share role.
Other Options: Ben Chilwell (DraftKings: $6,300).
EPL DFS Picks For Goalkeeper
Emiliano Martinez (DraftKings: $4,900)
Sam Johnstone (DraftKings: $4,100)
