Welcome to La Liga DFS for July 3 (7/3/20). Here you’ll find our top picks, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on DraftKings are especially highlighted. Keep in mind that teams are now allowed five substitutions instead of three due to lack of training during the hiatus.
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La Liga Odds Report
Atletico Madrid (-345) vs. Mallorca (+1050), O/U 2.5
The La Liga Breakdown
This showdown features Atlectico Madrid looking to make a run at La Liga title and stay in the Champions League contention. They take on Mallorca, who are trying to get out of relegation zone. Atletico sports La Liga’s best defense with an expected goals against of 27.99%, while Mallorca sits with the worst defense, at an expected goals against of 57.50%. Atletico’s offense sits fourth in La Liga with expected goals for of 50.95% and Mallorca’s offense ranks just below average with an expected goals for of 36.25%.
This looks to be a low scoring affair as most of Atletcio’s games seem to be with there defense first mentality, posting La Liga average shots per game of twelve. Mallorca ranks near the bottom of the table at 10.5 shots per game. The odds have Atletico as big favorites and the question is whether they can convert there limited chances. I like Atletcio in this one 2-0.
These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
DFS Picks: Captain
Koke (DraftKings $15,900)
Koke sits second on the team in crossing volume and controls the corner piece shares, with shares also going to Kieran Trippier. He contributes on 17% of Atletcio’s overall scoring and provides a safe floor. He adds to his floor with assisted shots and won tackles.
Koke 2019-2020 stats: 2 goals, 5 assists, 83 crosses.
Kieran Trippier (DraftKings $14,400)
Kieran Trippier ranks first on the team in crossing volume and sits top-20 in La Liga in crosses. He shares corner kick duties and comes discounted from Koke and Joao Felix. He adds to his floor with assisted shots and won tackles.
Kieran Trippier 2019-2020 stats: 37 shots assisted, 123 crosses.
Alvaro Morata (DraftKings $14,700)
Alvaro Morata ranks fourteenth in La Liga in shot volume and hits the target at an accuracy clip of 41.7%. He leads his team in overall scoring and comes discounted from thirteenth ranked La Liga shooter Joao Felix. Both Felix and Morata come with substitution risk as Diego Costa is always waiting in the wings.
Alvaro Morata 2019-2020 stats: 9 goals, 64 shots, 52 fouls drawn.
Other Options: Joao Felix (DraftKings $16,200).
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DFS Picks: Flex
Saul Niguez (DraftKings $7,800)
Saul builts his floor with won tackles and interceptions. Given the possession control Atletcio should have in this game that limits the safety of the floor. The PK man for Atletcio is a goal hunting option where few exist for these two clubs. HE ranks top-40 in LA Liga in shot volume.
Saul Niguez 2019-2020 stats: 6 goals, 44 shots.
Angel Correa (DraftKings $10,200)
Angel Correa contributes on 22% of Atletcio’s overall scoring. He can create form open play with shots, crosses and drawn fouls. He has no floor and the upside is in his goal contributions if Atletico are able to spread out two or three goals.
Angel Correa 2019-2020 stats: 5 goals, 6 assists.
Jan Oblak (DraftKings $9,200)
Arguably the best goal keeper in La Liga is Jan Oblak. given the possession control expected in this game and low shot volume per game form Mallorca his save upside is limited. Oblak is a play for the win and clean sheet. At this price with one of two goals in the game he is still viable to roster.
Salva Sevilla (DraftKings $9,000)
We need to roster somone form Mallorca and Salva Sevilla is a great option. He contributes on 23% of Mallorca’s overall scoring. Salva has a high floor even without scoring in assisted shots and top-25 La Liga ranked crossing volume. He controls the set pieces for Mallorca.
Salva Sevilla 2019-2020 stats: 5 goals, 55 shots assisted, 112 crosses.
Fran Gamez (DraftKings $6,400)
Fran Gamez contributes in a few different ways for Mallorca. Gamez contributes with shots and crosses. His floor is built around Atletcio’s possession. He will have plenty of opportunities for won tackles and interceptions, which help him hit value in games he gets full game minutes.
Other Options: Renan Lodi (DraftKings $7,000), Takefusa Kubo (DraftKings $8,400), Dani Rodriguez (DraftKings $4,400).