Welcome to EPL DFS coverage for Dec. 21. Here you’ll find our top EPL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, all things considered.
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EPL Odds Report
Burnley (+240) vs. Wolverhampton (+130), O/U 2.5
Chelsea (-222) vs. West Ham United (+550), O/U 2.5
EPL DFS Picks DraftKings + FanDuel Lineups | Dec. 21
These are listed in order of what I believe are the top plays, including median projection, floor and upside.
EPL DFS Picks: Forward/Midfield
Pedro Neto (DraftKings $9,600 FanDuel $20)
Pedro Neto comes in with the highest asking price. His floor matches the price, with 5.92 crosses, 1.76 drawn fouls and 3.69 shots/assisted shots per game. When considering home and away splits, the Wolves have the toughest defense to face on this two-game slate. Burnley’s home defense ranks second in the EPL in expected goals against at 5.8. I expect this game to be low scoring, and Neto can still produce over 1x value without goal contribution. His upside is in scoring, and his attempts have increased without Raul Jimenez to feed in the middle of the box.
Daniel Podence can serve as a GPP pivot, but at a $7,000 asking price, he will cost a safer cash play if you want to get the Chelsea attack in you lineup. Joao Moutinho handles set pieces and can assist on shots, but the short-range passes out from the corner, instead of aerial deliveries to the penalty box, limit the upside of having a teammate connect. Fabio Silva is a GPP option to consider. He has had trouble fitting the true nine role, but he should garner little ownership and his shot attempts are there at 2.33 per game ran over 60 minutes.
Olivier Giroud (DraftKings $8,500 FanDuel $21)
Sebastian Haller (DraftKings $7,000 FanDuel $18)
Chelsea’s second-ranked home offense welcomes West Ham to Stamford Bridge. Their expected goals differential at home is also second in the EPL. The most popular Chelsea stacks will be the wing backs mixed with the attacking front line. Olivier Giroud is the front man I have most interest in. He has not disappointed since being reinserted to the starting role. Giroud has two goals and 3.66 shots in full-game runs and has an arsenal of teammates that can deliver crosses for him to finish.
Timo Werner handles takes penalties for Chelsea, but given the spread attack from Chelsea, he really needs more than a goal to pay off the salary. He does possess brace upside, so I would not fade him, but I expect to be under the field. Christian Pulisic or Mason Mount are interesting pieces to mix depending on which one starts. If Pulisic is out, Mount gets a bump. If both are in, I prefer Pulisic because of the leverage given his slow start to the year.
On the other side of the pitch, West Ham takes on Chelsea’s fifth-ranked defense. West Ham likely will see the most ownership on Jarrod Bowen in the attack. Sebastian Haller is my preferred goal hunter. He averages three shots per start and has a 44% on-target accuracy on those attempts. Haller offers salary relief with scoring upside and should see low ownership.
Other Options: Dwight McNeil (DraftKings $8,100, FanDuel $13), Ashley Westwood (DraftKings $6,200, FanDuel $16), Tomas Soucek (DraftKings $4,700, FanDuel $16), Manuel Lanzini (DraftKings $4,500, FanDuel $9), Mateo Kovacic (DraftKings $3,900, FanDuel $9), Owen Otasowie (DraftKings $3,200, FanDuel $5).
EPL DFS Picks: Defender
Ben Chilwell (DraftKings $6,900 FanDuel $15)
Aaron Cresswell (DraftKings $6,300 FanDuel $13)
Ben Chilwell and Aaron Cresswell offer as much to their teams’ offensive attacks as the forwards on each’s club. Chilwell averages 5.8 crosses and 2.2 shots/assisted shots per game. He can add value with mixed drawn fouls and has goal contribution upside. Cresswell averages 5.92 crosses and 2.07 shots/assisted shots per game. He relies more on teammates connecting on his aerial deliveries for goal contribution. Both wing backs are expensive.
I like paying up for defense on this slate and will consider running three on DraftKings as well, searching for salary relief at the midfield. Kurt Zouma has seen his price skyrocket because of headers that have found the back of the net. The floor is not there for him, and West Ham has a sound set-piece defense that will have me off him.
Other Options: Reece James (DraftKings $6,700, FanDuel $12), Angelo Ogbonna (DraftKings $2,900, FanDuel $12), Nelson Semedo (DraftKings $4,500, FanDuel $8).
Goalkeepers
Rui Patricio (DraftKings $5,100 FanDuel $12)
Nick Pope (DraftKings $4,300 FanDuel $9)
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