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The Game Plan: EPL DFS Strategy for GW1 (FREE)

Staff Writer



EPL DFS Picks DraftKings FanDuel Fantasy soccer Matchday 21 Harry Kane lineups projections optimizer predictions Arsenal West Ham

Welcome to the Fantasy Premier League (EPL) and fantasy soccer content here at Awesemo! We’re pleased to welcome Tristan Hoh, who is joining us from RotoGrinders after providing content for them last season. 

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For the time being, ‘The Game Plan’ Article will be a FREE read. I’ll take a peek at the odds, preview the slate’s texture, how the studs line up, as well as touching on a few potential values. Basically, this article should act as initial means to churning your brain & kick starting your weekly building process off on the right foot.

Make sure to stay up to date on the soccer content here at Awesemo! On a typical week, we’ll have content released Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, heading up to Saturday’s lock. You’ll absolutely have everything you need for success in soccer DFS.

Odds Report & Slate Texture

Sheffield United (+280) @ Bournemouth (EVEN) – OU 2.5

Southampton (+180) @ Burnley (+170) – OU 2.5

Everton (+145) @ Crystal Palace (+215) – OU 2.5

Brighton (+335) @ Watford (-105) – OU 2.5

Aston Villa (+900) @ Tottenham (-330) – OU 2.5

The largest favorite on the slate clocks in at -320 with Tottenham hosting newly promoted Aston Villa. The next closest is Watford (-105) against Brighton. On slates with only one substantial favorite, like we have this Saturday, exposure to that team in some form or facet is obviously recommended (regardless of the type of build you’re planning on making). 

All five matches on the slate have an O/U of 2.5. Three of those five lean towards the under, which is nothing new for a PL slate. If anything, these totals are a tad higher than we’re accustomed to seeing. That said, I don’t think anything in particular should change in terms of your process this slate. Sometimes, looking to capture the best floor possible on a slate with low O/U’s on all of the matches may seem like the move. That’s in comparison to taking shots on players who typically need goal involvement to pay dividends. I don’t think this is one of those slates. Just look to capture the best combination of floor + upside that you possibly can.

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A Glance at the Studs (8.5K+)

Harry Kane (11.0), Christian Eriksen (9.2), Ryan Fraser (9.0), and Gylfi Sigurdsson (8.8) are the players priced above 8.5K this Saturday.

Kane and Eriksen are clearly in the top spots as -320 favorites at home. Guys like Kane and Sergio Aguero (not on the slate) are tough to commit to for a guy like me who strives for crafting the optimal lineup. Shelling out 11K is tough to swallow if they don’t find the back of the net. That said, this is a mouth watering spot for Harry.

Eriksen should split set pieces with Erik Lamela. His floor is solid here, as is the upside. You can’t go wrong with the Danish international in any format here. 

Same goes for Fraser, who’s got a sky high floor. I like both the floor and ceiling more on Eriksen, but Fraser isn’t far behind. He’s got a date with newly promoted Sheffield United, who will likely invite crosses into the box. Most cash game players will play both Fraser and Eriksen, but if wanting Kane, you’ll be tasked with choosing just one most likely.

Sigurdsson is the least appealing of the studs from both a raw point standpoint as well as point per dollar. Don’t get me wrong – he’s got a nice floor in most spots, but on the road in a tough environment, he’s the least appealing stud this slate for me. The one plus he has above Eriksen and Fraser is that he’s forward eligible. One of the few forward eligible players with a floor, to boot.

Potential Values

This week, I’m not going to highlight individual players one by one, but rather the collective position of fullback. The new scoring gives them a slight bump given the addition of the shot assisted bonus. It really puts them over the top in terms of being alpha plays, especially at the defender position. Lucas Digne, Diego Rico, Jose Holebas, Danny Rose, and Ryan Bertrand, among others, all pop as very good value.


Feel free to reach out to me at any time in the Premium Slack chat or on Twitter @tristanhoh.

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