UCL DFS Picks: Bayern Munich Popping for Value, Including Joshua Kimmich (February 14)

The UCL is back, kicking off the knockout stage with a two-game slate featuring AC Milan hosting Tottenham and Paris Saint-Germain hosting Bayern Munich. Both games are coin flips in the betting markets, but there are plenty of edges in to be had in UCL DFS. Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich are both heading into their matchup without key players, including stars Kylian Mbappe and Sadia Mane, which is leaving their rosters studded with value.

Let’s take a look at the EPL DFS picks and find where it makes sense to spend up.

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UCL DFS Predictions & Picks

Forwards/Midfield

Joshua Kimmich (DraftKings: $7,500)

Jamal Musiala (DraftKings: $7,100)

Bayern Munich is in first place in their domestic league behind a strong offensive attack. The club has averaged 2.95 goals per match and has allowed an expected 2.15 goals for. They’ve posted two or more goals in eleven out of their last fourteen matchups and three or more in their last nine.

Paris Saint-Germain boasts world-class talents like Lionel Messi and Neymar that will attract plenty of ownership despite some offensive letdowns over their past six competitive games. The lack of offensive production is worrisome for DFS and for Paris Saint-Germain’s shot in the standings.

Bayern Munich is the offensive attack to back in this one as they look to build a significant goal lead on a side missing Mbappe. Joshua Kimmich should be taking set pieces for them. Kimmich is a core play in DFS with a high floor on his average of 7.47 crosses per match. He leads Bayern Munich in scoring chances created with 5.05 per match. Kimmich adds value in DFS on defense as well, winning 3.99 tackles or interceptions, which ranks second on the team’s sheet.

The attacking options for Bayern are plentiful with the likes of Serge Gnarby, Kingsly Coman and Thomas Muller. However, the leading scorer on the club comes in the form of Jamal Musiala.Musiala is an open-play machine with 1.52 drawn fouls per match. He is second on the team sheet with 2.32 won tackles and interceptions, which is an added bonus for a goal-hunting play.

Musiala trails only Kimmich with 4.7 scoring chances created per match. He has just as much upside, if not more, as indicated by his ten goals so far. Gnarby, Mane and Sane tower over Musiala in shot volume but given that all of them have not been running with him, plenty of volume in the attack remains for Musiala to take his own chances or contribute on the attempts of his wingers. Musiala contributes on 29% of Bayern’s overall scoring. Only Gnarby comes close to his marks at 22%. Musiala is a core play in all formats. The asking price of $7,100 is simply too cheap.

Sandro Tonali (DraftKings: $6,100)

Ivan Perisic (DraftKings: $6,200)

The battle between Milan and Tottenham is tough to predict. Milan has strung together some poor results of late with just one win and five losses in their last eight Series A matches. They’ve been shutout four times in that run, seeing an expected goals mark of under one per match. Nevertheless, Tottenham is always bad. It took all they had to defeat Manchester City, but then they immediately returned to being Tottenham and get stomped by Leicester City.

The forward options on DraftKings have Harry Kane and Hueng-Min Son priced in the mid $7,000 range. The best choice between those two has to be Kane, although he is garnering more ownership. Kane has solid goal-hunting ability and a drawn foul rate of 1.4 per game which surpasses Son’s 1.3 by a hair. Son is now sharing crossing volume with Ivan Perisic, which gives both Kane and Son a similar floor. Perisic could be an option, but he would only join Kane and Son as high-floor plays on this UCL DFS slate.

Milan has a similarly priced midfielder in Sandro Tonali that is jumping out of the projections. Tonali averages 3.92 crosses per match. His value at this asking price depends on the health of Ismael Bennacer. The two split indirect sets, but now the absence of Bennacer will only help Tonali solidify a floor. If Bennacer is out, Tomali would join Perisic as one of the best floor plays at the position.

Other Options: Lionel Messi (DraftKings: $9,100); Neymar (DraftKings: $8,800).

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Defender

Achraf Hakimi (DraftKings: $4,200)

Theo Hernandez (DraftKings: $5,600)

Paris Saint-Germain will rely on an outstanding wingback in Achraf Hakimi. He can score in a number of ways, including through defensive output which stands at 2.92. Offensively his 3.94 scoring chances created will look to see an uptick with the absence of Mbappe. The defense will receive opportunities from the high-pressing attack of Bayern. It’s hard to imagine Bayern being shut out and Hakimi can still produce north of 1.75x value on the low asking price with defensive metrics alone.

Milan’s wingback comes at a higher salary and Theo Hernandez is a big part of the attack for them. Hernandez is middle of the pack on a team that has spread goal contributions outside Leao with 13%. He has a DFS floor with 2.84 crosses per match and 1.93 shots. Like Tonali, the absence of Bennacer can only increase opportunities for Hernandez.

Other Options: Emerson Royal (DraftKings: $4,100); Alphonso Davies (DraftKings: $4,300)

Goalkeepers:

Yann Sommer (DraftKings: $5,100)

Ciprian Tatarusanu (DraftKings: $4,900)

Author
Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Stokastic to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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