Tuesday’s UCL two game slate pits Club Brugge against Benfica and Chelsea vs. Dortmund. Chelsea has the home field advantage over Dortmund this time around, and one goal is enough to push this match to extra time if they don’t concede. Benfica have a two goal lead going home, but they’ll be looking for some insurance to advance. For DFS, David Neres is the obvious spend up play. However, Neres comes at an expensive asking price, so let’s evaluate the UCL DFS picks to find where the value lies and which goal-hunting options to target in your UCL DFS picks.
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UCL DFS Picks & Predictions | Mar 7
Jaoa Mario (DraftKings: $8,800)
Goncalo Ramos (DraftKings: $7,800)
Benfica are the biggest favorites on the two game slate at -250 on the moneyline. Club Brugge allowed just two goals in their first matchup vs. Benfrica, but the match was not even close. Benfica managed 2.90 expected goals on the road compared to Club Brugge’s 0.25. Further, Benfica controlled 55% of the possession and out shot the Belgian side fourteen to four. Club Brugge will push up and find goals in this one, but they’ll be vulnerable on the counter punch. Expect Benfica to secure another victory, making them a sneaky stack to find two plus goals.
The prices on the Benfica side are high. Their attack starts with David Neres and Rafa. Rafa is only midfield eligible on DraftKings, while Neres is forward only. Silva is second on the club with 3.15 shots per match compared to Neres who sees 1.89 shots per match. Both created well over four scoring chances per match. Neres offers a safer floor because of his set shares. Both are stacking pieces in all formats for Benfica. Goal hunting is what makes the difference in tournaments.
Joao Mario handles the penalties for the Portuguese side and sits at the top of the scoring charts with Goncalo Ramos. Both draw just shy of two fouls per match, and Ramos leads the club with 4.14 shots per. Ramos failed to score in the first match against Club Brugge, but did manage to find four chances. His 44% on target rate suggests that he’ll finish this time around.
Mario has done most his damage on the penalties and has scored a goal in 63% of his starts. Mario will lose some set shares to Neres, but still leads the club in created chances at 5.55. the discount of over $1,000 from Neres to Mario is hard to pass up when stacking the massive salary of the Benfica attack. Rostering Mario over Neres is the way to go in GPPs. Both are fine together, and Ramos coming in discounted over Rafa will allow the salary to fit. Rafa over Ramos is a bold move that offers leverage over the chalkier Ramos, Mario and Neres builds.
The Club Brugge side will need to push up the offense and find at least two goals. Noa Lang is the highest floor option. He averages a goal contribution on 50% of his starts via a heavy lean to the goals. The salary of $6,300 is too much against a Benfica side that has tallied eight clean sheets in their last ten matches. Two cheaper one off options are Casper Nielsen and Kamal Sowah. They are priced under $4,500, making it worth getting some shares of them in GPPs.
Julian Brandt (DraftKings: $7,300)
Joao Felix (DraftKings: $7,900)
The second game on the slate is between two evenly matched sides, Chelsea and Dortmund. Chelsea should get the lean because of their home field advantage. Their first game saw Dortmund take a narrow 1-0 victory, and Chelsea will need a goal to keep hopes alive. Do not expect Chelsea to go on a full out attack unless they concede early or the score is a draw late in the match.
The best GPP targets in this match start with Enzo Fernandes. He can score without goal contributions, averaging 1.83 scoring chances created and 5.10 won tackles and interceptions. He also adds value with 1.63 fouls drawn per match. The Dortmund side has Sebastian Haller who is a big target in front of the net. Haller has averaged 3.25 shots per match throughout his career. His track record against EPL sides isn’t too impressive, and the asking price at $6,000 will keep his ownership down. Jude Bellingham leads Dortmund in attempts at 2.09 per match and has a high floor with 3.89 scoring chances created and 4.17 won tackles and interceptions per match. Bellingham’s asking price will not be met without a goal contribution, but his floor can still make a difference in GPPs.
The floor plays with scoring upside are Joao Felix and Julian Brandt. Felix has the open play volume with over five shots per match and over six crosses per. His drawn foul rate stands over two per match. The asking price on Felix is not far off Brandt’s, who will come in higher owned due to the salary savings and his floor with set shares. Brandt leads the German side with 4.19 scoring chances created and 6.51 crosses per match. His 1.36 shots per match are nothing impressive, but the 55% on target rate is. Both Felix and Brandt are core plays and in cash would fit with a combo of three of the four attackers from the Benfica side.
Other Options: Raheem Sterling (DraftKings: $7,500); Kai Havertz (DraftKings: $6,600).
Ben Chilwell (DraftKings: $5,700)
Alejandro Grimaldo (DraftKings: $6,700)
Ben Chilwell has done well in his return to Chelsea. He handles indirect set shares on his half of the pitch with 4.56 crosses per match and 3.16 won tackles and interceptions. His created chance rate sits at only 1.36 per match and less than one attempt at target per match limit his upside. The floor is their for the Chelsea wingback and filtering the deliveries off his boot has proven successful as they look to advance past Dortmund.
Alejandro Grimaldo has a massive asking price. He sports a team leading seven assists and 6.59 crosses per match and 3.59 scoring chances created. Defensively he adds value with 3.49 won tackles and interceptions. The mix of a 1x floor with goal contribution upside in a favorable matchup make Grimaldo a core play. His value is even higher than the goal dependent Ramos and Rafa on the Benfica side.
Other Options: Antonio Silva (DraftKings: $3,400).
Kepa Arrizabalaga (DraftKings: $5,400)
Alexander Meyer (DraftKings: $4,000)