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UCL DFS Picks: Erling Haaland & Riyad Mahrez are Top Plays on DraftKings & FanDuel (October 5)

Jovanni Vidal

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UCL DFS Picks today DraftKings fantasy soccer FanDuel projections rankings Round of 8 Wednesday 4/13/22

Round 2 of UCL DFS group closes the week with six matches, several of which really stand out.

Manchester City will be the most popular team on the slate, and for good reason.

There is some value popping in the battle between Sevilla and Dortmund.

Paris Saint Germain visits Benfica in what looks like a trap spot for the Ligue 1 giants.

The top target of the slate comes form a home match and a must win spot for Juventus.

Let’s dive in.

DraftKings & FanDuel UCL DFS Picks Today 10/5

Forwards/Midfielders

Erling Haaland (DraftKings: $11,700, FanDuel $24)

Riyad Mahrez (DraftKings: $6,900, FanDuel $18)

Manchester City could not be heavier favorites at home sitting at -2,000 on the moneyline. There are weather concerns in the match, but regardless of the conditions the EPL leaders are stacked with proven talent and they will not walk away empty handed.

Erling Haaland is making a habit of bracing for fun. His odds to brace sit at +110, which is the highest overall to score a goal on this slate. The presence of Paris Saint Germain on the slate with their high priced attackers will keep Haaland from surpassing 80% ownership in all formats. That would even be too low as a brace is expected and with over five shots per match and an on target rate, his floor is higher than many set piece takers. Haaland comes in as the top projected play on both DraftKings and FanDuel at 26.62 and 35.60 pts, respectively, according to the Stokastic UCL projections.

None of that should come as a surprise to anyone. The key is how to stack the rest of the Manchester City side. Something to keep in mind is that running up the score could see Pep pull his pieces early. All the surrounding cast will not be able to pay off their prices unless they run north of 65 minutes.

Kevin De Bruyne and Ilkay Gundogan grade out well but their prices are hard to spend up on with six matches. That’s keeping in mind Haaland has been hogging all the goal contributions. The other route for scoring upside is to look at a discounted Riyad Mahrez who expects to see time for a resting Phil Foden. Mahrez is a prolific scorer and sees crossing volume and drawn foul rates that have been masked by a lack of playing time.

Pep could decide to rest De Bruyne and Gundogan which would open a whole load of discounted value with the likes of Julian Alvarez who is not cheap but cheaper than the attackers of Paris Saint Germain. Alvarez is scoring machine in his limited run with Manchester City coming off explosive performances with his former club River Plate. Mahrez is a great play if starting given the significant discount on DraftKings only. His salary on FanDuel is hard to swallow with his low on target rate and crossing volume. Their are better options on FanDuel in the $18 range with shot volume concentration from the range of matches on the slate.

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Joao Mario (DraftKings: $5,900, FanDuel: $15)

Kylian Mbappe (DraftKings: $11,100, FanDuel: $20)

Benfica will play host to Paris Saint Germain. The two sides have not met in a number of years and both feature explosive offenses and play at similar competition levels. On paper, the best talent belongs hands down to Paris Saint Germain.

However, Benfica has the home match up and they have yet to be shut out in the UCL. Paris Saint Germain have a defensive backfield that commits to many fouls with the main culprit being Sergio Ramos. Set pieces benefit Benfica, and they can gain confidence and find the back of the net. Joao Mario mans the wing and sits atop the team sheet with goals in a spread scoring set. His shot volume averages just shy of three per match and he handles the penalties. Penalties are hard to predict, but the volume is their and the salary is low enough against the mentioned above back line that is notorious for fouling.

The offense of Paris Saint Germain has no issues finding the back of the net. The shot volume is lead by Kylian Mbappe, with Neymar and Lionel Messi drawing fouls, having crossing volume and making contributions at an alarming rate. The salary is tough to fit with the presence of Manchester City.

The leverage play is taking Paris Saint Germain over Manchester City, but the bold move will back fire more times than not. Mbappe is the one off option with speed to not only draw over three fouls per match but on target shots closing in on four per match. The supporting cast of world class wingers alongside are fine one off options as the do grade out well but it is hard to imagine Paris Saint Germain inflicting more damage than Manchester City which makes them less of a priority.

Isco (DraftKings: $4,900, FanDuel $15)

Kai Havertz (DraftKings: $5,700, FanDuel $16)

Sevilla has a home match against Borussia Dortmund. Sevilla has been awful to say the least and they are likely seeing their way out of UCL. This match is a last ditch effort for the La Liga side to sneak in and Dortmund will be without Marco Rues. Sevilla are not known to pound in the goals but Isco stands out on the wing mainly because the price. He does well to draw fouls and hits just enough open play crosses. The upside is his willingness to take shots despite his lack of accuracy. He does not need much to pay off the asking price and with Marcos Acuna out he should see some set shares on indirect attempts.

Chelsea play host to AC Milan in a match that could go overlooked. Both sides sport a balance of quality offense and defense. Chelsea comes in as the favorites and their offense has started to find goals under new coach Graham Potter. Mason Mount and Raheem Sterling are the names that jump out but we need salary relief. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Kai Havertz are at low prices due to a slow start and inconsistent run time under the previous Thomas Tuchel. They harvest shot volume and the on target rate is enough to secure some what of a floor. A goal or contribution will do enough to pay off the asking price for either player.

Havertz comes in the cheapest and sees north of three attempts per match so the goal hunting punt falls on him. AC Milan’s defense is not one to target and less so if Theo Hernandez and Davide Calabria see the starting rotation. With Sergino Dest likely to make the start a flier on a cheap goal hunter form the home Chelsea side makes sense.

Filip Kostic (DraftKings: $7,100, FanDuel $18)

Dusan Vlahovic (DraftKings: $7,100, FanDuel $20)

Juventus have a favorable match against Maccabi. Filip Kostic will have no issues with created chances and crossing volume to solidify a floor. His contribution rate is lead by the assists and his open play crossing volume sits at 6.73 per match. He is a core play in all formats. The on target rate and lack of shots makes him a DraftKings specific play and for the extra $2 on FanDuel Dusan Vlahovic is the go to. Vlahovic is the scoring leader for the Seria A side and averages 3.33 shots per match. He will have his way against Maccabi and the asking prices for Kostic and Vlahovic as a pair are doable even with Manchester City filling the lineup.

Two other key contributors of note are Angel Di Maria and Arkaduiz Milik. Milik ranks second in scoring on the team and comes in discounted from all three teammates mentioned here. He will be a popular pay down option but the contribution rate is their. Di Maria has proven anywhere he goes that created chances and crossing volume are not hard not hard to come by. He has had a limited spell with the club and the asking price is through the roof. He could make your MME stacks in limited exposure and despite a ceiling game it is hard to imagine him as optimal.

Other Options: Rafael Leao (DraftKings: $7,700, FanDuel $15), Julian Brandt (DraftKings: $7,000, FanDuel $17)

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Defenders

Danilo (DraftKings: $3,600, FanDuel $12)

Jose Angel Carmona (DraftKings: $3,900, FanDuel $10)

The key on this slate is how to fit the high asking prices form the attacking pieces of Manchester City, Juventus and even Paris Saint Germain. Their is nothing wrong with punting both defenders because they are a bit mispriced. Danilo sits on the wing and is coming in too cheap. He can mix in interceptions and won tackles with a push on the offense to deliver crosses in the open play. On the opposite wing comes in Mattia De Sciglio who has shown offensive abilities in short runs on the starting rotation. The discount for Danilo keeps him as a preferred option should he start at the wingback role.

The Sevilla side offer another value in Jose Angel Carmona his price has risen since last UCL slate where he ranked as the top value play according to the Stokastic UCL projections. He does not come in that high this time around in terms of value though he finds the mix of defense and offensive metrics to his liking similar to that of Danilo for Juventus. When the ownership sails to Reece James and Joao Cancelo their is benefit to paying down for wingbacks that offer slightly lower floors but the ability to spend up for the finishers at the end of those higher priced wingbacks set ups.

Other Options: Fode Ballo-Toure (DraftKings: $2,700, FanDuel: $8), Alejandro Grimaldo (DraftKings: $4,800, FanDuel $14), Sergio Gomez (DraftKings: $5,000, FanDuel $12)

Goalkeepers

Yassine Bounou (DraftKings: $4,600, FanDuel $10)

Kepa Arrizabalaga (DraftKings: $5,400, FanDuel $12)

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Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Awesemo to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.