UCL DFS Picks: Kylian Mbappe, Neymar Top Plays on DraftKings & FanDuel (October 25)

The UCL DFS group offers six matches as we begin to close out the group stage. AC Milan is in a must-win spot and three points are there for the taking. Celtic and Shakhtar battle for pride and offer value one-offs. The age-old question comes into play in this one between Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland. Who will brace and who is the better play?

DraftKings & FanDuel UCL DFS Picks Today 10/25

Forwards/Midfielders

Rafael Leao (DraftKings: $7,200, FanDuel $16)

Olivier Giroud (DraftKings: $7,000, FanDuel $17)

AC Milan is looking to make a push to advance from the group stage. The road has been difficult but Chelsea could put a nail in the coffin of Salzburg in the early match to give the reigning Serie A champions hope. Look for them to push the peddle on the road and come away with a victory against Zagreb. Milan dominated the first meeting and there is no room for error as they need all three points in this outing. The scoring leaders of the club are Rafael Leao and Olivier Giroud. Leao contributes on 39% of the club’s overall scoring and averages 4.58 shots per match. He sits with 3.84 scoring chances created, which falls second on the team sheet. He is a core play, with volume building a floor and scoring being the upside. Giroud sits slightly behind Leao in shot volume and the concern is the on-target rate, which sits at 18%. Giroud has little to no floor but in GPP we are goal-hunting and so is he in this favorable outing. The roles of Sandro Tonali and Ismael Bennacer offer a pairing or three-man stack with the two attackers. They split sets and sit among the top four on the team sheet in created chances. The splits do not grade out well for them especially when Theo Hernandez is available with a solid floor and massive upside. Tonali would be a cheap pairing option due to the reduced asking price on FanDuel.

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Mykhailo Mudryk (DraftKings: $6,200, FanDuel $16)

Liel Abada (DraftKings: $6,800, FanDuel $12)

The battle between Celtic and Shakhtar should be entertaining. They are not great teams but they are top in their respective leagues and match up well. Mykhailo Mudryk handles set shares for the visiting Shakhtar side. He contributes on 50% of his side’s overall scoring and sits second on the team sheet with just north of two shots per match. His 2.35 drawn fouls per match add value and his asking price is too low for the floor and upside. Celtic will be the popular value play, being at home with a -138 moneyline advantage. Liel Abada will garner set shares with Jota continuing to deal with injuries. Abada contributes on 21% of his team’s overall scoring and has seen just four starts. He averages 4.15 shots per match with an impressive 68% on-target rate. He is a core value play on FanDuel, where the matchup calls for goals and Abada offers a floor to match the asking price on target hits alone.

Kyogo Furuhashi is the leading scorer for the home Celtic side. He averages 3.33 shots per match with a 45% on-target rate. The upside is there for the taking with Abada and Furuhashi, and they fit well with some massive asking prices from the Paris Saint Germain side. For GPP, punt points to Matt O’Riley of Celtic. He will not grade well due to the massive foul accumulation, which could see him draw a card. If he can keep the fouls low he offers value with 5.65 crosses per match, which would see an uptick along with that of Abada, due to the absence of Jota. His upside is in the goal-hunting department and he sits with 3.18 attempts per match at the net. The on-target rate is low and he has yet to find a goal this season, so the grading does him no favors, but five assists on the year make him a solid GPP punt.

Kylian Mbappe (DraftKings: $10,300, FanDuel $22)

This really should read the entire Paris Saint Germain attacking core. They are massive favorites in a plus matchup that could see all of Mbappe, Neymar and Leonel Messi find the back of the net. The downside is one can brace and the other two do not have enough metrics despite possession and attempts being there to pay off the massive salaries. Neymar and Messi are core plays in cash, and Neymar and Mbappe in cash will do fine and offer leverage over Messi. In GPP, rostering all three will not get the job done. There are six games and goals will be scored. In GPP, any combination of Messi and Neymar without Mbappe will be popular due to the presence of Erling Haaland. Mbappe is the top play for me for a few reasons. He averages 5.10 shots per match and hits his targets at a 51% accuracy clip. Messi averages north of four attempts per match and Neymar sits at 2.72. Neymar and Messi split the indirect sets and even if there is plenty to go around, they contribute on the scoring via assists to Mbappe. Two of the three in GPP is the way to go and ownership will not be an issue because Manchester City will do well to steal away enough of it.

Manchester City’s outing cannot be ignored. Haaland will face his former club in Dortmund and he scored against this very side in their previous outing. Dortmund is at home and they are a far better side there. Look for Dortmund to limit the chances for Manchester City. Given the fact that Manchester City can build a lead and pull their men with so much star power off the bench, it is hard to imagine Haaland to 2.5x his asking price. He will score a goal, but that is not asking too much of the elite striker. The question is if he braces or scores a hat trick to match the upside Mbappe has in his given matchup at a reduced asking price. Lastly on the Dortmund side, Jude Bellingham will look to carry his team to some points in this one as he has done since the departure of Haaland. Mbappe comes in slightly above Haaland on the Stokastic UCL projections at 23.05 projected DraftKings points compared to 21.3 for Haaland and a favorable 2.24 value.

Other Options: Phil Foden (DraftKings: $9,500, FanDuel $19), Ilkay Gundogan (DraftKings: $6,000, FanDuel $16)

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Defenders

Alejandro Grimaldo (DraftKings: $5,100, FanDuel $13)

Benfica looks to run away at home with all three points and punch a ticket to the knockout stage. Juventus will have something to say about it as the odds see this match as a pick’em with a slight lean to the home side. The spread scoring of Benfica sits between Goncalo Ramos and Joao Mario. David Neres gets in the fun at times but is questionable. Ramos offers leverage in GPP and Mario handles the penalties, which is always worth a shot. Safety first in this one and the floor play with upside belongs to Alejandro Grimaldo. He averages 7.42 crosses per match and can neutralize a downswing in this metric should time of possession favor Juventus with north of 3.75 won tackles and interceptions. Without Neres, Grimaldo will handle all indirect sets, making his asking price too low despite a lack of on-target attempts and just four goal contributions across all competitions this year. Grimaldo grades out as the best value play on DraftKings with a 3.21 value and 16.38 projected points according to the Stokastic UCL projections.

Other Options: Alex Telles (DraftKings: $7,700, FanDuel: $12), Achraf Hakimi (DraftKings: $5,000, FanDuel $11), Theo Hernandez (DraftKings: $6,100, FanDuel $11).

Goalkeepers

Gianluigi Donnarumma (DraftKings: $5,900, FanDuel $14)

Thibault Courtois (DraftKings: $4,800, FanDuel $11)

Author
Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Stokastic to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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