We’re into day three of this week’s major and with that comes another massive slate. The third slate of this tennis DFS week has 26 matches with ATP and WTA players in action. We have thoughts on Novak Djokovic and Elena Rybakina, so let’s dive in.
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Novak Djokovic (DraftKings $11,200; FanDuel $28)
Novak Djokovic is bound to get another title at the end of next week. Djokovic is 38-7 in his last 45 hard court matches, which is a sub-par record for his standards. He is currently riding a 10-match winning streak, including wins over Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal. He is a massive +110 favorite to win this tournament, and I think he will take it down if he avoids his kryptonite Stan Wawrinka.
Djokovic has a second-round meeting with Tatsuma Ito, the ATP No. 146 from Japan. Ito has been solid on the challenger level, but the ATP tour has not been kind to him. He was 0-3 on hard courts in 2019 while winning just one set. Ito showed major signs of concern on the serving end in his first match this week, double faulting at an 11% rate while losing five service games. Djokovic is the best serve returner in the sport, and Ito will be in for a rough match.
Elena Rybakina (DraftKings $9,100; FanDuel $18)
Elena Rybakina had an outstanding 2019 season, as she absolutely skyrocketed up the WTA rankings. Rybakina started the season as the WTA No. 192, and now she’s sitting in the 26th spot. She was 37-14 on the year in WTA tour matches, including seven wins against top-60 players. However, she’s been even better in 2020 with a 10-1 record to start the year. Rybakina took down the title last week in Hobart and at this rate, it’ll take a top-10 player to take her down.
Rybakina is facing off against Greet Minnen, the WTA No. 119 from Belgium. Minnen has had a stellar start to her 2020 season with a 10-2 record. However, the competition she’s faced has been nowhere near the level of Rybakina. Minnen’s lone win against a top-100 opponent was yesterday against No. 94 Aliaksandra Sasnovich. She had to save seven of the 11 break points she faced to end up on top, and Rybakina is bound to take advantage of the weak serve. tennis dfs
Dan Evans (DraftKings $8,200; FanDuel $17)
Dan Evans is coming off of an exceptional week at the ATP Cup. He was 3-1 at the competition while taking down both David Goffin and Alex de Minaur in impressive fashion. Evans was just 19-21 on the ATP tour last season, but I think he’s in for a breakout year. He won 58% of all service points during the ATP Cup, which will need to improve, but it’s a positive he did so well despite that rate. Evans had to come back from being down two sets against Mackenzie McDonald in the first round, but he absolutely blew through the final three sets.
Evans is going up against Yoshihito Nishioka, the ATP No. 71 from Japan. Nishioka has had a solid start to the 2020 season, posting a 3-1 record. He doesn’t have a powerful game, but he is consistent and he makes the opponent work for every single shot. His serve, however, has been getting eaten alive in his last three matches, facing 25 break points and losing eight of them. Nishioka dismantled Evans earlier this year, but Evans is currently playing the best tennis of his career. If Evans can hold serve, he should have no issue coming out on top. tennis dfs
Possible upset/value plays: Jannik Sinner (DraftKings $7,400; FanDuel $16)
Jannik Sinner is the new kid on the block for the ATP tour, and he has showed some excellent tennis being just 18 years old. Sinner was 38-11 on hard court matches in 2019, and he ended the year by taking down the Next Gen ATP Finals. His first match this week was a straight-set win over Max Purcell, firing down aces at a 10% rate while winning 70% of first serve points. The young Italian has the ability to get a lot of free points off of the serve, and I hope to see that today.
Sinner has a second-round matchup with Márton Fucsovics, the ATP No. 60 from Hungary. Fucsovics had a rather inconsistent and an injury plagued 2019 season, posting a 14-15 record on the year. He took down Denis Shapovalov in the first round this week, but Shapovalov was nowhere near his best. Fucsovics served only three aces in that four-set match, and he had to save seven break point chances. If Sinner can take advantage of Fucsovics’ serve, he can win this match in three or four sets.
Best of luck!
Twitter: @CMGCaleb_
