We’re into a new week of tennis action, and with that comes a massive slate that we’re going to breakdown. The first slate of this tennis DFS week has 25 matches with ATP and WTA players in action. We have thoughts on Dan Evans and Sam Querrey, so let’s dive in.
Be sure to follow us on Twitter @Stokastic_Com. Want more Premium content? Sign up for Awesemo+ HERE.
Dan Evans (DraftKings $10,100; FanDuel N/A)
Dan Evans is coming off of an exceptional week at the ATP Cup. He was 3-1 at the competition while taking down both David Goffin and Alex De Minaur in impressive fashion. The ATP No. 42 was striking the ball with all sorts of varieties, and he proved to be a top player on the tour. Evans was just 19-21 on the ATP tour last season, but I think he’s in for a breakout year. He won 58% of all service points during the ATP Cup which will need to improve, but considering he did so well with that rate is a positive sign.
Evans has a first-round meeting with Juan Ignacio Londero, the ATP No. 50 from Argentina. Londero is one of the games top clay court players, but that success hasn’t been matches on the hard surfaces. He was 6-12 on hard courts in 2019 while posting back-to-back wins only once. Holding serve only 75% of the time on a hard court is not going to get the job done against top players, and I think Evans is going to take full advantage of it. I expect Evans to end this match fairly quickly in straight sets.
Sam Querrey (DraftKings $9,400; FanDuel N/A)
Sam Querrey is what some people would call a “service bot”, which is spot on. Querrey is one of the top servers in the game, firing down aces at a 21% rate on hard courts in 2019. While he was just 15-14 last year, it’s tough for him to get blown out due to his playstyle. The ace bonus that he gets while winning in straight sets is a goldmine in tennis DFS. The floor is so low for someone like Querrey that it’s almost impossible to pass up on him in a cash game. He has a favorable matchup today, and I think he’s going to rack up a lot of points.
Querrey will face off against Gregoire Barrere, the ATP No. 83 from France. Barrere climbed 80 spots in the ATP ranks in 2019, while taking down two challenger level titles. He is 4-1 so far in 2020, but he’s struggled against the top players. Barrere is just 1-12 against top-50 players in his career, and I don’t see him getting that second win today. He faced a total of 18 break points in his last match against Jaume Munar, and Querrey will look to take any chance he gets. I’m taking the American to win in straight sets.
Jeremy Chardy (DraftKings $8,700; FanDuel N/A)
Jeremy Chardy had a terrible start to the 2019 season, but he ended on a high note, winning 16 of his last 23 matches on hard courts. The Frenchman took down some top talent at the end of the season, including Daniil Medvedev at the Shanghai Masters. Chardy is 1-1 in 2020 so far, firing down aces at a 7% rate while winning 72% of first serve points. I think he may go overlooked on this tennis DFS slate, but he has had recent success against his opponent.
Chardy has a meeting with Gilles Simon, the ATP No. 57 from France. The former No. 6 Frenchman has not played his best tennis as of late, posting a 15-18 record on the hard courts in 2019. He reached only one quarterfinal during the last eight months of the season, while showing some poor play on the service end. Simon held serve 77% of the time on hard courts in 2019, and managed to break serve at a 22% rate. His lone match against Chardy was a brutal beatdown, as Simon had his serve broken five times while winning only 44% of service points. I expect Chardy to get the job done once again.
Possible upset/value plays: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (DraftKings $5,900; FanDuel N/A)
I was surprised to see Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova priced this low, which makes me think she’ll be the chalk punt of the night. Pavlyuchenkova had a stellar end to her 2019 season, posting a 10-5 record with four losses coming against top-four players. She took down some top talent as well including Angelique Kerber, Kiki Bertens, Maria Sakkari and Veronika Kudermetova twice. I think she’s just a bit too cheap in this matchup, so it’s worth a shot at this price.
Pavlyuchenkova will face off against Anett Kontaveit, the WTA No. 26 from Estonia. Kontaveit had a rather impressive 2019 hard court season, with a 20-9 record on the surface. Only three of those losses came against players ranked outside the top 15, which proves that she can compete with the best of the best. Kontaveit is 1-1 so far in 2020, dropping six service games while winning only 28% of second serve points. Kontaveit is 3-1 against Pavlyuchenkova, but two of those wins were on clay courts. Both players are coming in hot, so I’m taking the value for tennis DFS.
Best of luck!